Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 200442
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING TROF AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF DEPARTING RIDGE PUSHING TOWARD
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND FORCING DIGGING
OUT OF NORTHEASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI ATTM. LLVL PRESSURE FALLS
AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACRS NW ONTARIO
TO PROGRESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF LOWER MI BY 12Z MON.
ALOFT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW CHANNELS ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SUGGEST NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND EVOLVING INTO A
REX BLOCK...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVE DUMP DOWN THE VIGOROUS VORT LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GRT LKS BY MON
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PROGRESSING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DVN CWA BY 12Z MON AS UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT OFF THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...STILL
A DECENT SECONDARY SWATH OF LIFT/POS OMEGAS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THIS EVENING. WITH SUCH ONGOING DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS...MAIN EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK SWEEPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST. VEERING
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TO STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MIX AND KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S IN MOST OF
THE DVN CWA. THESE MAINTAINED WINDS ALSO TO LIMIT MUCH OF ANY FOG
THREAT UNLESS A TEMPORARY LAG ACRS RIGHT AROUND THE CONVERGENT FROPA.
THE LAG IN COOL AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROF ALSO TO LEAD TO A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

MONDAY...LLVL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DVN CWA AND ENCOUNTER BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FUEL SCTRD
SHOWERS ALONG IT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THUS DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. DEEP POST-TROF MIXING IN A STILL MILD
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S ACRS THE
CWA. A CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND STRATOCU SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE TROF AND MAKING IT ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
CURRENTLY AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
DECK AND TEMP IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NOW. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE..DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN NORMALLY COLDER RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS. ON THURSDAY.. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER IA/IL WITH A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS PROG A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS SINCE THEY ARE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WEEKEND..A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS






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