Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 011719
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

06Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
NE WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED E/SE TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN MO. LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT STRONG WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FOCUSING
STRONG STORMS INTO WESTERN MO... WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION
ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 850-700 CONVERGENCE ZONE SLIDING E/SE
FROM SOUTHEAST NE TO EASTERN MO JUST GLANCING OUR NORTHEAST MO
COUNTIES EARLIER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED
UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY AND MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FROM MN THROUGH WI AND MI. LOW LEVEL FLOW N/NE IS
USHERING IN SOME OF THIS COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPTS HAVE LOWERED INTO MID/UPPER 50S... AND LOOP WITH TRENDS OF
SURFACE DEWPTS SHOW CONTINUED SAGGING SOUTHWARD OF THE DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH MOSTLY SMALL PCPN CHCS... AND IMPACT OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ON
TEMPS.

THIS AM... SMALL SHOWER CHCS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE. THEN... THIS
AFTN/EVE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER ND SHOWN TO WEAKEN WHILE
SLIDING E/SE TOWARD MID-MISSISSIPPI VLY. ISENTROPICALLY
DIMINISHING TREND NOTED IN OMEGAS ON 310K SURFACE... AND COUPLED
WITH INCREASING N/E FLOW SURFACE TO 850 MB USHERING IN DRIER AIR
AND SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE MAINLY NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AND
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S/W SUPPORT DIMINISHING PCPN FROM SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BY MID AFTN... WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVE ALL BUT NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST LATE AFTN/EVE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE
VORT MAX AND SLIDES E/SE ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. FORCING
THEN PASSES BY LATE EVE AND SOME MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX
PASSING OVERNIGHT... BUT BY THEN WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
DEEPER E/NE FLOW AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHCS
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...PT-MOCLDY SKIES AND LINGERING SMOKE LAYER FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL KEEP HIGHS A BIT COOLER FROM YSTDY WITH
MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ALTHOUGH FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DURATION OF HAZY FILTERED SUNSHINE. TONIGHT...VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY FLOW USHERING IN DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS
LOWERING THROUGH THE 50S WITH EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWEST IL. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTHWEST IL TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST MO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY
MONDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE FOR EARLY JULY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR
FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED THE INCOMING COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE ON MONDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT
AT THAT TIME WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AND THE CWA BEING ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIME WILL TELL.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY BUT A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD COOLER...AROUND
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOSTLY VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA TO KBRL BUT
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN TAF LATE THIS
AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. PERSISTENT COOL NE FLOW IN THE SFC-5000
FT AGL LAYER MAY ADVECT MVFR CIGS INTO THE KBRL..AND POSSIBLY KMLI
AREAS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH


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