


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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950 FXUS63 KDVN 271557 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1057 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 ...Hydrology Section Marengo FS Arrival Time Correction... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid weather will be in place this weekend. - After a day`s break, an unsettled pattern returns Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Warm and humid conditions remain over the CWA early this morning, as a weak cold frontal slowly approaches eastern Iowa. While this front will eventually push through today, the rainfall from last evening and overnight is likely to create a significant stratus cloud deck toward morning. Showers and thunderstorms in our south, and very isolated in the north as of 2 AM will continue to move east and by 6 AM, we expect most activity to be dissipated or moving out, except for the far southeast CWA which may see rain/embedded thunder through 9 AM. While the warm air mass is still around, the combination of low clouds and later day dry advection will keep heat stress much lower than yesterday. Highs in the low to mid 80s north to mid to upper 80s south are forecast by NBM today, and that seems a good fit for the lack of morning sunshine. Tonight, we should see clear skies, at least initially, along with light winds. All in all, this will be a very pleasant evening! Overnight, with some areas still quite moist from the past 24 hours rainfall, we may see some shallow fog formation. I`m not putting in the forecast grids yet, but this seems to be a night with a synoptic setup for patchy to areas of fog. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Saturday and Sunday the heat returns to area, though the latest data suggests this will be a little less than the recent bouts of 100+ Heat index. For now, highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s are forecast, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Saturday continue to appear dry, with the main threat for storms well north of the CWA into central and northern MN. This continues to be the case through Saturday night and Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon and night look to be potentially very active again with storms. A hot and humid day is forecast, and with that instability is expected to be rather high, hear and over the entire Midwest ahead of the approaching weak cold front. Zonal flow aloft is forecast, with a short wave passing through the Midwest and triggering storms as early as mid morning over MN Sunday. The flow should take these storms east initially through the afternoon, before building southeastward in the late afternoon and evening. I could see a seasonal threat for damaging winds and heavy rain in this scenario. SPC has placed our area into a Day 3 marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, and that more or less fits this thinking I have. The blended model output lingers some chances for storms into Monday, but this is likely to be a single larger event, followed by some scattered activity with cooler air aloft rotating through Monday afternoon. Northwest flow will bring a drier air mass into the region Monday afternoon, with dew points falling the lower 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. While Tuesday remains dry in our forecast, the rest of the period seems have some threat for showers and storms in northwest flow aloft. These will be driven by weak disturbances, and are hard to pin down event timing/location. As most seasoned Midwest meteorologists know, summer northwest flow is not necessarily quiet weather! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Light rains are exiting the area as of 11Z, and will continue to move away from the region as a cold front slowly moves through eastern Iowa. Today will be a dry period Saturday. Stratus will continue to slowly move east over the sites early this morning, reaching both MLI and BRL around 13Z. Cigs as low as 500 ft are possible, but most sites will see 1500 to 2500 stratus cigs through the morning. The front does not have much of strong push of air to it, as west to northwest winds only reach 6-10kts during the day. VFR weather is expected by noon in all areas though as the strong summer sun increases mixing through the drier air aloft. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Forecast crests along portions of the Cedar River have continued to be trended a bit lower lower into next week after assessing recent run-off and a dry forecast over at least the next 24 hours. However, Additional rounds of heavy rainfall are possible on Sunday and into early next week may result in changes to the timing and magnitude of the forecast crests. The latest river level forecasts are only accounting for forecast rainfall (QPF) over the next 24 hours, again which is mainly dry. With run-off uncertainty, flow attenuation, and the dry forecast through Saturday, will maintain the River Flood Watches for now for the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids and Conesville, and the Iowa River at Marengo. Of the three sites, it appears Marengo has the highest potential to rise above the flood stage Saturday night, but how much higher than FS still at question. Thus the watch continuance for now but a warning may have to be issued this evening or Sat morning if the projected upward trends are close to what the forecast is. The Cedar River at Cedar Rapids has been trended down and now has just one point hitting flood stage during Tuesday evening July 1st, and depending on rainfall on that basin Sunday into Monday, may fall short of that 12 FT level. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...12