Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 162133
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
333 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

This afternoon a 1045 hPA high was centered over the KS/OK border.
This led to winds out of the northwest for our area. To the east a
surface low was located just off the mitten tip of MI. A weak trof
extended west into our area. At the same time, an upper level low
aided in rising motion. This was creating snow flurries and some
snowflakes this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Main forecast concern in the short term are the temperatures.
Overall pattern is northwest flow. A weak H5 ridge will lead to
quiet weather across the area for the short term as temperatures
warm back into the 20s for tomorrow. Tonight, temperatures will
drop below 0 again across most of the area. The RAP/HRRR/GEM
suggest temps eclipsing the 5 to 15 below zero realm. Other
guidance is lockstep just below freezing. I don`t buy the
HRRR/GEM/RAP solution. If there were no winds, I`d be all for
them. Otherwise, a pretty quiet short term.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Thursday

Southwest return flow north of a high pressure system over the
Southern U.S. will advect "warmer" temperatures into E Iowa/NW
Illinois. Went slightly below superblend - have low to mid 30s
for most areas. Models have a very strong inversion at 925mb
persisting through the day. This seems reasonable since we`ll have
a cold start in the low to mid teens, and since the southwest
flow will be advecting over widespread snow cover, albeit
relatively shallow, across Missouri up into E Iowa/NW Illinois.
The CMC/NAM are a few degrees colder yet.

Southwest winds of 10-20 mph with isolated higher gusts will make
it feel like the teens and 20s through the afternoon.

Friday through Saturday Night

Quiet and mild mid January weather in store for the end of the
week. Highs in the 30s and 40s will melt the majority of the snow
across area. The melting snow and increasing dewpoints may
result in areas of fog and drizzle, especially into Saturday
night. 850mb temps are forecast to peak above 10 C on Friday
ahead of a weak cold front. The front will lower 850mb temps to
the single digits Celsius by Saturday.

Sunday On

The strength of a sfc backdoor cold front that is forecast to
slide into E Iowa/NW Illinois from the north Saturday night will
be a key player in the eventual track of a sfc cyclone through the
Midwest from Sunday into next Monday. The front is expected to
stall out before transitioning into a warm front.

The synoptic models have a lee-side low forming in the Southern
Plains, then tracking to the NE along a zone of low-level
baroclinicity. Right now model consensus is for mild air to
entrain into the east side of the low, which would mean rain as
the dominant precip type for the local area. A lot can change at
this lead time, so it`s important to keep up with the forecast
through the week. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Light snow showers continue to affect the TAF sites through the
next 4 to 6 hours. Most vsby restrictions in these bands are
expected to be greater than 2sm. After this period, expect VFR
conditions through the extended period with no sig impacts
expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Gibbs



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