Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 230444
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Sunny skies and light winds are providing a tranquil summer day
to the area today, with most locations in the lower 80s as of 2
pm. Dewpoints in the lower to mid 40s are creating humidity levels
of 20 to 30 %. Thus, if you are warm, your sweat will be doing a
good job of cooling you today, which will be a dramatic difference
from the week ahead where warm air will combine with humid
conditions, resulting in plentiful rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The high pressure overhead will keep clear and quiet conditions in
place tonight, and will linger Monday with increasing south winds
and high clouds. Dry dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s should keep
rain chances near zero through Noon, with only a low chance expected
toward late afternoon. Monday should be most likely dry in all
locations, but will keep that low threat west toward evening to
cover the GEM and ECMWF solutions.

Lows tonight will likely be a few degrees warmer than night, as
modification continues. Highs monday will easily reach 80, and
with the sun out in full through early afternoon, it appears
highs very similar to today will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

An extremely active weather pattern will be setting up for the
Midwest that looks to continue through next weekend. The pattern
suggests the potential for above normal precipitation from organized
thunderstorm complexes. However, it must be emphasized that there
will be periods of dry weather that may be 6 or more hours in length
during this pattern.

Initially, the better forcing/moisture remains west of the area
Monday evening. Thus the isolated to scattered convection that
develops during the afternoon should slowly dissipate with sunset.

After midnight, the models are hinting at the possibility of a
weakly organized convective complex developing in either central
Iowa or along the IA/MO border that moves east through sunrise
Tuesday. Thus the better rain chances look to be west of the
Mississippi.

Tuesday, if a weak convective complex develops Monday night, it will
slowly move across the area during the morning and dissipate.
Boundaries left over from this convection will then provide the
focus for new convection to develop during the afternoon.

Tuesday night, there is a respectable signal that an organized
thunderstorm complex will develop across Iowa and move east
overnight. This complex has the potential to produce a widespread
general rain that might be locally heavy.

The thunderstorm complex that develops Tuesday night will slowly
exit the area Wednesday morning. Like on Tuesday, boundaries left
over from this thunderstorm complex will provide the focus for new
convection that develops Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night on...

The active weather pattern will continue the second half of the week
and through next weekend. Again, there will be periods of dry
weather that may be 6 or more hours in length.

The current model consensus has chance pops Wednesday night/Thursday
and chance to likely pops Thursday night/Friday. The model consensus
then has chance pops from Friday night through Sunday.

Temperatures should average above normal and precipitation has the
potential to be above normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR flying conditions for at least the next 24 hours. Fair skies and
light south to southeast winds overnight into Monday. After 23/15z...winds
will increase from the south at 10 to 15+ kts. After 24/01z...isolated
showers and maybe a thunderstorm may approach the cid terminal. The
low probability of occurrence does not support adding to the terminal
forecast at this time. South winds will diminish to 5 to 10 kts after
sunset.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Nichols


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