Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDVN 062056
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS BECAME TODAYS STRATUS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...THUS HOLDING IN INVERSION IN PLACE THERE.
THROUGH 2 PM...TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
30S...WHILE SITES IN THE SUN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A CHECK
OUT THE DOOR AT THE OFFICE REVEALS...IT IS IN FACT A VERY PLEASANT
DAY IN LOCATIONS WITH SUN. THE HIGHWAY 20 GLOOM IN IOWA MAY LAST
THROUGH SUNSET...THROUGH THE INCREASING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH THE EDGE OF CLOUDS NORTH NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND ERODE THROUGH
SUNSET...AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CAA SPREADING IN AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL HELP
BRING A SEASONALLY MILD NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OUR WAY...EVEN WITHOUT LOW CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING
COMPLETELY.

SUNDAY...DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY NOT SATURATE UNTIL WELL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY...GUSTY WIND...BUT DEEPLY MIXED AND SEASONALLY MILD DAY TO MOST
OF THE CWA.  ANY FLURRIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW...AS THIS IS MUCH MORE OF
DRIFTING SCENARIO WITH WINDS UNDER 30 MPH...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL
SNOW TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THAT SNOW MAY...OR MAY
NOT BE COMPACTED ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE DRIFTING. WE WILL FIND OUT
TOMORROW...HELPING MAKE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF A BLOWING THREAT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON VIGOROUS CLIPPER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OTHERWISE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TAKING A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CYCLONE
IN THE GREAT LAKES AND SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUMMET SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH A VERY COLD POCKET AT 500 MB OF ABOUT -30
TO -35C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND
DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 850 MB WHICH WILL TAP 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS THERE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY INTENSE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. EVEN THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN
OR LESS THE STRONG WIND MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE ACCURATELY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FOR
NOW I WILL MENTION BLOWING SNOW IN OUR FAR NW CWA WHERE THE DEEPEST
SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS. HOWEVER...ANY FRESHLY FALLING SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL WITH MODELS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOR THE MOST PART MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A LARGE AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS...WITH SOME MVFR FOG...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF IOWA TODAY...IMPACTING CID AND DBQ
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME CLEARING AT
CID EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS AND I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW. FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A QUIET VFR PERIOD IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 KTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...A PERIOD OF VFR/CLEAR SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL SITES IN
IOWA BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.