Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 020856
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
356 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS
BUILDING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AM. INCOMING SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO
DECREASING CLOUDINESS MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH CONTINUE TO SEE
MID CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR/S OF KCID-KVYS ALONG MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE. FULL MOON ON DISPLAY HERE AT DVN AND NOTICING
THE MOON DOES NOT HAVE THE BLOOD RED OR ORANGE LOOK FROM THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. THIS DUE TO DEEPENING E/NE WINDS SCOURING OUT
SMOKE LAYER THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY LOCATED IN THE RANGE OF
2000-5000 FT AGL PAST SEVERAL DAYS... BUT SATELLITE DATA STILL
SHOWING THE SMOKE PLUME FURTHER ALOFT. INCOMING DRIER AIR IS
PROVIDING VERY PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE AM WITH DEWPTS LOWERING
INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH FEW UPPER 40S NORTHERN IL WHILE STILL
SOME LOWER 60S HANGING ON FAR SOUTH AT THE MOMENT... BUT FURTHER
LOWERING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH E/NE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DRY...AND SEASONABLY COOL AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT
AREAS OF MID CLOUDINESS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD DURING THE PERIOD WITH SKIES
BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AS DRIER E/NE FLOW DEEPENS INTO MID LEVELS
WITH PASSAGE OF 850-700 MB BOUNDARY. SMOKE LAYER LINGERING BUT
WELL ALOFT THOUGH STILL LIKELY TO FILTER ANY SUNSHINE. HIGHS TODAY
WIDESPREAD 70S (SOME 10+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL) WITH DEWPTS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 AND E/NE BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR JUST FANTASTIC AND
OVERALL REFRESHING FEEL PERFECT FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR AND REFRESHINGLY COOL WITH LOWS WIDESPREAD
IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON A STRETCH OF MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER BUT THEN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BASICALLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR SOUTH FROM ROUGHLY OK TO
TN. THIS SHOULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER INCLUDING
FOR THE 4TH WITH ALL THE FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER AS OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS COMING INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG
STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS BETTER TO OUR NORTH BUT
TIME WILL TELL. AFTERNOON HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE LINGERING SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY BUT THE ECMWF/GFS SHOVES THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH BY EVENING. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING DRY AT
THIS POINT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
CONSENSUS ALL-BLEND WANTS TO HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. LATE NEXT WEEK THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

OB SITES ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE STARTING TO SHOW
A MVFR DECK FORMING. GUIDANCE AND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST SUGGESTS
THAT THIS DECK WILL MAKE IT TO THE AREA. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO
KEEP THE MVFR DECK IN AT DBQ...MLI...AND BRL. I STILL AM NOT
THAT CONFIDENT...BUT THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...GIBBS



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