Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 140823
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
323 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Clear skies and light winds once again with some fog developing east
of the Mississippi River at 2 AM CDT. Area temperatures again are
comfortably in the 50s. Trends suggest a dense fog advisory is possible
toward morning if trend continue. South winds later today support warmer
temperatures at least the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with biggest
issue is extent of fog this morning which may last well into the mid
to late morning hours.

Today...areas of fog, locally dense in the east should dissipate between
8 and 10 AM. Again, eastern counties may require a dense fog advisory
by daybreak. South winds and copious sunshine should allow for warmer
temperatures with near 90F readings in the west to lower 80s far east.
Dewpoints will remain around 60 degrees resulting in moderate humidity
levels today. Area highs should be within 3 degrees of this forecast.
South winds of 5 to 10 mph today with some gusts to around 15 mph in
the western 1/3 to 1/2 of the region.

Tonight...once again fair skies with light southerly winds enough so
that this should limit any significant fog formation. This will also
result in lows a bit warmer mostly in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Summer-like pattern through much of this extended period.

Overview: Blocked pattern again but this time we will be on the warm
side. Deep trough in the western United States and ridging in the
east is expected to remain locked in place for the foreseeable
future. This pattern will pull summer-like airmass northward into
the Midwest.  Highs will be mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
These warm temperatures and lack of rain will worsen the drought.

If you are looking for rain the ECMWF is not the answer. The only
chance is late Saturday night into Sunday morning which is rather
unfavorable for convection in this case. Especially considering the
surface low and forcing lift well north across the far upper Midwest
and into Canada.  This is when a weakening cold front arrives but
Confidence is low after that on where the front stalls.

The GFS is much more aggressive in showing several opportunities for
widespread rain late this weekend into next week. However, with the
worsening drought in place not jumping on this solution this far
out. However, the consensus model in the grids (which leans more
towards the GFS) has chance pops nearly daily. Hopefully the models
will come to a similar solution in regards to much needed rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Fog potential appears to be best along and especially east of the
Mississippi River TAF sites, where will continue to forecast
visibilities of 1-ism around daybreak but there is a chance for
lower visibilities. Left out fog mention at KCID where confidence
is waning due to temp/dewpts spread of 8+ degrees and SSE wind
around 5 kts. Any fog should diminish by 13-14z and leave behind
VFR conditions rest of the cycle with southerly winds around 10
kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...McClure



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