Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 181743
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler day today with less wind as highs will struggle to
  reach 40 across the area.

- Warmer temperatures, dry air and windy conditions are expected
  Tuesday and could bring a fire risk to the area

- Pattern becomes active through the end of the week as
  precipitation returns to the area. We continue to see the
  freezing line near or in the area suggesting that snow could
  return again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Early this morning, a stratus deck was rushing into the area as
the next vort max in the northerly flow pushes south into the
area. High pressure at the surface helped to bring cold
temperatures and dry air to the area. Before the clouds get
here, temperatures have been dropping into the low 20s to upper
teens. This will continue as we see one of the colder mornings
recently across our area. In fact, single digit wind chills are
likely for the AM.

These clouds will limit much mixing, however the height falls
with this vort max will result in increased winds as well. While
they will be lower than the last couple of days, we could see
wind gusts into the low 20 mph range this afternoon. There is
some question about how far south the clouds get. This means
that we may see slightly warmer temps across the south if they
don`t make it down there. Regardless, message is a cold start
and a day where temperatures struggle to get 40 area wide.

Tonight, another vort max is expected to move through the area.
This looks to lead to another increase in wind gusts overnight.
This will be more transient, but could see gusts up to 30 mph
with it.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tuesday looks to be quite the windy day again for the area as
WAA into the area brings warmer temperatures. Clear skies should
allows us to mix deeply. The better winds aloft look to occur
near daybreak on Tuesday meaning most of the day will be windy.
Prob exceedance for wind gusts greater than 40 mph during the
day are low (20-30%), so any gusts later in the day should stay
away from that number. That said, we have been overachieving on
wind gusts, so the day shift will need to keep an eye on this
today. These wind gusts, cured fuels ad lower RH will combine to
produce very high GFDI values.

After this, the cutoff low over the SW starts to eject out over
the central CONUS making our flow a little zonal as we see temps
in the 40s for highs and 20s for lows. Return moisture ahead of
the first clipper doesn`t really occur until later on Thu
coincident with the clipper, sfc low and front. This will be our
first chance for precip in the long term. The pattern remains
zonal so we don`t see much in terms for moving the freezing line
north of the area. As such we can expect to see some sort of
rain/snow Thu night as the system passes through. If this timing
remains, then the chance for some snow north of I80 is
plausible. Amounts and impacts are hard to tell at this time so
will leave out of the HWO. After this, the flow becomes SW
leading to better moisture return. A strong system is forecast
to take shape west of the area and affect our area into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A VFR TAF cycle through Tuesday morning. Cellular to patchy VFR
CU to continue to erode this afternoon, while northwest sfc
winds gust up to 25 KTs. The winds will back and decrease this
evening, before they become more southwesterly and ramp up again
by Tue morning ahead of an incoming frontal system. We may have
gusts 25-30 KTs late tonight into Tue morning, with gusts
possibly hitting 35 KTs at MLI and BRL Tue morning. There looks
to be a window when a west-southwesterly LLJ at 2K FT AGL surges
to 45-50 KTs late tonight making for some LLVL wind shear
before the sfc winds really get gusting. Overall, appears to a
turbulent late night into Tue morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...12


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