Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 282313
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
613 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure bringing a fabulous Friday to the region with
comfortable humidity and temperatures. Other than scattered fair
weather cumulus clouds, and patchy high cirrus clouds, there has
been plenty of sunshine. 3 pm temperatures were in the mid 70s to
lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s at most locations.
Haase

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Comfortable and quiet weather.

Tonight: High pressure will be in control providing clear skies,
light winds and lows in the 50s.

Saturday: Another delightful day with plenty of sunshine, light
northeast winds and low humidity. Afternoon highs should be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s...about 5 degrees below normal for the
end of July. Haase

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Forecast focus on a mainly dry extended with temperatures about
normal, trending to below normal by the end of next week.

Saturday night through next Friday...Pattern appears to be locked
in place for the next 7 to 10 days with a weak northwest flow
aloft across our area, and a strong upper level high in the Great
Basin region. Later next week the northwest flow is reinforced by
a significant short wave that carves out a rather deep eastern
trough. This would bring a cool airmass into our area by late next
week, and if the ECMWF is correct would potentially drop minimum
temperatures into the 40s at some locations.

Rainfall: With this type of pattern apparently locked in place for
at least the next 7 days the gulf moisture will be limited this
far north. Therefore, little if any rainfall is expected for much
of this extended period. With this forecast based heavily on the
ECMWF the only rain chance appears to be later Wednesday into
Thursday. This is when a rather strong cold front arrives but
moisture will be limited and shear appears weak as of this writing.
The GFS seems way too aggressive with QPF based on a lack of gulf
moisture transport.
Haase

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure over the western Great Lakes will keep a relatively
cool and dry airmass with light east to northeast winds over the
area through Saturday. Conditions will be favorable for at least
patchy shallow ground fog in the early morning hours, which has
been included as 4SM to 6SM visibilities at CID and DBQ.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Moderate to major flooding is occurring on the Pecatonica and Rock
Rivers. Also, major flooding is forecast on the Wapsi near DeWitt.
See the latest flood statements for further information.

No significant rainfall is expected during the next 10 days.

Haase

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets
HYDROLOGY...Haase



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