Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 011752 AAE
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CAMS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR TODAYS RAIN
THAT TAKES THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST POPS RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 06Z SYNOPTIC MODELS AS
WELL. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE QPF
THROUGH 00Z MON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN KEPT THE SAME HOWEVER...IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO LOWER THEM MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

12Z UA SOUNDING HAS A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB...SAVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM 875 TO 775MB...ALONG WITH
A STRONG INVERSION.

THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION INDICATES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT CAA. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY REMAIN IN
THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW SITES
RETURN TO IFR TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR ON MONDAY AFTER 12Z. RA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CIGS MAY REDUCE TEMPORARILY TO 4SM OR 3SM. PAST THIS FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS


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