Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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590
FXUS63 KDVN 172318
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
518 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

18Z surface data has a warm front from central Minnesota into
southwest lower Michigan. A cold front ran from the eastern Dakotas
into northwest Kansas. Dew points were in the were in the 20s across
the Great Lakes with 30s across the remainder of the Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Record warmth for February 17th. Near record warmth expected for
February 18th. Refer to the climate section for specific numbers.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen from late this afternoon
through sunset Saturday.  A dry frontal passage tonight will result
in slightly cooler temperatures for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Unseasonably mild temperatures to continue through the long term
period with a pair of storm systems that will impact the forecast
area.

Temperatures: Southwest flow aloft will transition to nearly zonal
through the period, resulting in continued very mild temperatures.
Afternoon highs are forecast at least 25 degrees above normal
through Wednesday, with readings in the upper 50s and 60s. Record or
near record highs are expected Sunday and Monday, and possibly
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will also be very mild, generally 20 to
30 degrees above normal. Look for a cooling trend Thursday into
Friday with increasing clouds and precipitation and an intrusion of
cooler air on Friday.

Precipitation: There will be two main periods of precipitation
through the period. The first round will be late Sunday night
through Monday night. Instability should be sufficient to support
isolated thunderstorms. There could be some quarter to half inch
rainfall amounts, which are not expected to cause any river
flooding. A second, more potent system is forecast to impact the
region Thursday into Friday. There are still significant differences
in the synoptic models regarding the timing and track. The ECMWF has
been the more consistent model compared to the slower GEM and the
faster GFS. We could see showers and storms initially, followed by
trailing snow as colder air filters in Friday night. There is no
strong signal for organized heavy rain to cause significant
flooding. In bank rises look most likely, with contributions from
snow melt to the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Vfr conditions expected to persist through the period with S/SW
winds at 5-10 kts shifting to the W/NW Saturday AM, as a weak cool
front passes.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Record highs for February 17th...

Burlington.......67 in 2011
Cedar Rapids.....66 in 1981
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........63 in 2011

Record highs for February 18th...

Burlington.......65 in 1913
Cedar Rapids.....65 in 1981
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........63 in 1913

Record highs for February 19th...

Burlington.......70 in 1930
Cedar Rapids.....68 in 1930
Dubuque..........63 in 1930
Moline...........69 in 1930

Record highs for February 20th...

Burlington.......67 in 1983
Cedar Rapids.....60 in 1981 and previous years
Dubuque..........61 in 1981
Moline...........65 in 1930

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...08



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