Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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247
FXUS63 KMKX 222352
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...High pressure and good radiational cooling conditions
will make for another cool night and patchy frost. Swly winds
will develop for Sun but a cold front will accelerate down Lake MI
and move inland during the afternoon. High temps will be near 70F
in se WI with temps cooling into the 40s when the front arrives on
gusty nely winds.


&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tonight through Sun AM. There
are small chances of low stratus along a backdoor cold front that
will sweep swwd from ern WI into south central WI for the
afternoon and evening hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will linger in the region through Monday, bringing
pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin. Highs will be above normal
both days, approaching or hitting 70 degrees. The exception will
be near Lake Michigan tomorrow afternoon and through the day on
Monday. As winds shift from westerly to north/northeast, will see
a strong push of cooler air move in northeast to southwest from
early tomorrow afternoon into early evening. It`ll be one of
those days in the east where you could be caught off guard in the
afternoon dressed for 70 degrees.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models have slowed a bit for the low pressure system and
associated cold front on Tuesday. This timing would allow for
another mild day on Tuesday, with the rain likely holding off most
places until Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Good enough
agreement among models showing some instability to go with
thunder mention as the front moves though.

High pressure from Canada will build in to the north for the
second half of the week, with below normal temperatures likely
settling into the area. There will likely be precip at some point
during this period, but models are struggling to settle on a
solution. Not very high confidence in pops as a result. Sadly,
models do agree that when the precipitation does fall, it may be
cool enough for a brief mix with snow. Within the last 24-48
hours models were showing highs pushing 80 by the end of next
week, so needless to say there is some uncertainty in the
extended forecast.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Expecting a wind
shift tomorrow, likely zipping down lake Michigan from early
afternoon to early evening while gradually pushing inland as well.
Winds will switch from westerly to east/northeast.

MARINE...

Mainly quiet weather will continue this weekend. There will
likely be a quick wind shift along with gusty conditions for a
time tomorrow afternoon into the evening as colder air pushes into
the area.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Sunday Night through Saturday...DDV



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