Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 030301
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...

THE ADVERTISED DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN ALL THE PRECIP EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE. SOME OF THAT COULD BE FREEZING WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON
WHERE TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HAVE DONE
SOME TRIMMING OF THE HEADLINES AND NOW JUST HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTIL
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY LOW/MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS HEADING IN QUICKLY AND MAY BE CLEARING THAT
AREA BY 12Z WED. IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE MESO MODELS.
THIS COULD LAY DOWN ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. NORMALLY NOT
WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY BUT INTRA-OFFICE COLLABORATION AND
LINGERING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WERE THE MAIN MOTIVATION FOR KEEPING
THE ADVISORY ALIVE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IT APPEARS IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WE COULD SEE SOME
VERY LOW VSBYS/CIGS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO
VERY LIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HEADED NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA AND THIS
COULD REACH KMSN BY 09-10Z WED...TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL LIKELY
LAST FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS AND COULD BRING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO KMSN. THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD GET IN THERE BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS ALL THAT/S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIER AIR WORKS
IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO NEAR
25 KNOTS AT TIMES WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 09Z WED.
ANOTHER ADVISORY IS BEING POSTED FOR BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEPT MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES IN A WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ONGOING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DOWNGRADED
THE REST OF THE WARNING TO ADVISORY SINCE THERE IS STILL A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO 04Z. CANCELLED LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES
FROM THE ADVISORY.

THE DRY SLOT IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM MADISON TO LONE ROCK
AND SOUTH AS IT DIMINISHES. THE DRY SLOT IS CAUSING US TO LOSE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE SO THE SNOW IN THE NORTH SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING... SO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE.

FOR SOUTHEAST WI... RAIN WITH SOME THUNDER IS AFFECTING KENOSHA AND
RACINE COUNTIES. MILWAUKEE HAS RAIN. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE
SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET. EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN
PAVEMENT TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING... SOME LOCALLY ICY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE
FOG COULD BE DENSE GIVEN THE AMPLE PRECIP WE JUST RECEIVED TODAY. WE
MIGHT HAVE TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNINGS EARLY
AND ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. WE WILL WAIT AND SEE FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECTING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OUT AHEAD OF A POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH. THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW SO QPF IS
LIGHT. THUS ONLY EXPECTING TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AN INCH
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WED
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT SAW A LOT OF SNOW LIKE IN SAUK...
MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES... MAY HAVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE/850 TROUGH WITH A
LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS LOOK AT 500 MILLIBARS. QPF IS QUITE LIGHT AND
FOCUSED A BIT MORE ACRS THE NRN CWA. SO WILL CARRY SOME AFTN/EVE
POPS WITH THIS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEXT TROUGH APPEARS TO BE STAYING WEST OF THE AREA BUT DOES GRAZE
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC SO QUIET
REGIME EXPECTED. EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AS WELL. OVERALL
MILD WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH MODERATING 850 TEMPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CARVING OUT OF A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE IS IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION INTO
OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING THE COLDER AIRMASS IN HERE STARTING MONDAY AND
STRENGTHENING A BIT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GEM IS FAVORING
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER LOOK OF THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE
SUPERBLEND POPS AND TEMPS THIS PERIOD. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MID/UPPER LOW AND INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND EMBEDDED VORT LOBES
WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SHSN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAIN TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. NORTH OF MADISON... SNOW
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI WILL HOVER AROUND FREEZING... MAINLY
REMAINING JUST ABOVE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN WI WHICH WILL
CAUSE LIGHT WINDS... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. GIVEN THE AMPLE AMOUNT OF
PRECIP WE JUST GOT... AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY.


MARINE...

GALES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THE GALE
ENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND WAVES INTO THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN SWITCH AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056-062.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


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