Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
FXUS63 KMKX 141447 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
947 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016
Departing high pressure will keep enough sun in place for a
pleasant day today. Southerly winds behind the high will result in
high temps back around normal, if not a couple degrees milder than
normal. Other than minor adjustments for incoming high clouds
from the west, the forecast seems to be on track for the
remainder of the day.
VFR conditions will persist into this tonight as high pressure
departs to the east. Models are in pretty good agreement that
stratus will develop later tonight. MVFR ceilings seem likely,
possibly IFR for a time. The low clouds will probably linger
through much of the day Saturday, though increasing southerly
winds should improve mixing and hopefully raise cloud bases
through the day.
It will remain dry through tonight, with a few showers developing
west by later Saturday afternoon. The primary line of
showers/storms is expected to move through Sat evening and
Increasing southerly winds between departing high pressure and an
approaching low will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to the
north by this afternoon and the rest of the nearshore waters this
evening. Gusts to 25 knots at times and along with high waves will
linger into Saturday night. The highest waves will be in the
northern marine zones due to the southerly wind flow.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - High.
Light winds and mainly clear skies have allowed temperatures to fall
into the low to mid 30s across most of southern WI early this
morning. Coldest temperature at 08z was 30 at KBUU. Frost Advisory
will remain in effect until 14Z. Initial push of warm air advection
and mid-level moisture generating patchy mid clouds over west
central WI early this morning. Expect bulk of these clouds to carry
northeast but may graze northern sections early this
Another stronger push of warm air into western WI develops this
afternoon and evening with which may result in a period of more
widespread mid-high clouds across the northwest CWA. Otherwise, a
mostly sunny and warmer day lies ahead with increasing south to
southeast breezes. With 925H temps warming to 8 to 10C today, still
expect temperatures to peak this afternoon in the lower 60s.
Temperatures will fall a few degrees tonight but strong boundary
layer mixing and shallow inversion will result in milder
temperatures. Some short term guidance hinting at stratus field
spreading into southern WI from the MO/IA late tonight but not
enough confidence to increase sky percentages that much. Despite
increasing moisture late tonight, not enough to warrant adding any
small pops despite weak forcing. Better lift remains to the west
thru 12Z with low level jet axis.
SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.
Approaching low pressure will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms to southern WI Sat afternoon and night along the
associated cold front. A mid level shortwave and the right entrance
region of an upper jet will align over WI Sat afternoon, along with
a strong low level jet and precipitable water values of around 1.5
inches (high for this time of year). Strong shear and modest
instability (tall, skinny cape) will allow for thunderstorms to
develop just ahead of the cold front. A few storms could become
strong and produce hail and damaging winds. SPC kept most
of southern Wisconsin in a Marginal risk for severe storms.
The strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the
Northeast and approaching low pressure from the northern Plains will
cause gusty south winds across southern WI on Saturday, all the way
through the late evening hours. Gusts over 30 mph are expected
during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be mild with highs around 70. Dewpoints should be
in the lower 60s, so it will feel pretty humid.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.
Broad troughing over the western half of U.S. will keep an active
weather pattern over the Upper Midwest through next week.
Temperatures will be very mild, with highs in the lower 70s Sun and
mid/upper 70s Mon.
The cold front crossing the area Saturday evening will stall over
northern IL and shift back north as a warm front on Sunday with a
push from the next shortwave trough. Southern WI should have quiet
weather for most of Sunday. It will continue to feel humid.
Lingering moisture over the area will keep clouds around and some
possible light showers.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday evening
roughly along and north of I-94 as the low level jet strengthens
over the Midwest and noses into WI. These storms will proceed north
Southern WI will be well into the warm sector on Monday, keeping
warm and humid conditions over us another day. The weather will be
dry, but sky cover is the uncertainty.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.
the trailing cold front will slide southeast through WI on Tuesday.
All of the better forcing for precip will be to our north and west,
so there is only a small chance for showers.
Cold air will pour into WI as an amplified upper trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region through Thu night. The
weather should be dry this period.
Expect mid-level clouds over west central WI to remain north of TAF
sites early this morning with only some few-sct cirrus passing thru.
Stronger surge of warm air advection this afternoon and evening over
western into central WI may bring a more expansive area of thicker
clouds to the area but again should be brief. More mid-high clouds
likely to affect TAF sites later tonight. Expect increasing south
winds today with a period of low level wind shear likely tonight.
Short term guidance hinting at more substantial stratus field
spreading into southern WI late tonight into Sat morning, but not
enough confidence at this point to add more than sct wording.
Light offshore flow will back to the south this morning and increase
as pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and
low pressure moving through southern Canada. South wind gusts
expected to reach Small Craft Advisory levels later this afternoon
across northern marine zone...and later tonight farther south. Gusty
winds expected to continue until later Saturday night as weakening
surface cold front approaches and moves across Lake Michigan. Will
extend Small Craft through 09Z Sunday for all marine zones. Still
thinking some t-storms are likely to affect the near shore waters
Saturday evening as the front approaches. Appears Atwater Beach Buoy
has been pulled by Great Lakes Water Institute for the season as
data stopped being received yesterday morning.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Sunday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Sunday
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...MRC