Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 161554
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1053 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CU FILLING IN WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE
OF COLD UPPER TROUGH. 12Z 500 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD AS
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS....BUT 50/20
RULE NOT IN PLACE LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY. MESO MODELS DEVELOP -SHRA
HERE AND THERE ESP IN ERN CWA. WHILE CAN`T RULE COMPLETELY OUT
PREFER THE DRY LOOK...14 POP OR LESS...IN THE GRIDS AND TAFS AT
THIS POINT AS CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE LOW AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SHRA LOOKING QUITE ISOLATED. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES INTO
THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE USUAL SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN WI WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS STILL NOTED ON THE SOUNDINGS ALTHOUGH DIFFERS FROM
MODEL TO MODEL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS ARE MOSTLY DRY AND WILL
STICK WITH IT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OR POSSIBLY ISOLD VERY BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO WI FOR LATER TODAY AND TNT. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE MID
TEENS CELSIUS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TODAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. MORE PATCHY FOG
INLAND LATE TNT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE NAM...CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK IN NATURE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 100 TO 200 J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MUCH LESS ON GFS SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ON
BOTH SOUNDINGS...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FORCING FOR FRIDAY...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST THERE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LAKE
BREEZE/ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE
LAKE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY ARE SHOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LINGERING
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. VARIOUS WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OR LOW LEVEL
FEATURES TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

KEPT CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY NEAR THE LAKE
WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE WEST OF THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 3.5 TO 5.0 KFT EXPECTED
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH THROUGH SRN WI THIS
AM. ISOLD SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD


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