Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
339 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A mid/upper level shortwave was exiting the northern Great Lakes
to the northeast, with a strong west/southwest upper jet across
the north central U.S. Some lingering weak upper level divergence
and 700mb upward motion is expected through mid morning. 700 mb RH
is low. Low levels moisten after the cold front.

Therefore, expect a dry cold frontal passage with possible
sprinkles mainly north areas this morning, behind the front. Low
levels then dry this afternoon, with decreasing clouds expected
from the northeast.

The 850 mb jet max moves off this morning, before any potential
mixing, so don`t expect wind gusts to get too high this morning.
Cold air advection should result in slowly falling/steady
temperatures today.

Not enough cold air for frost potential tonight, as the surface
high builds across southern Wisconsin.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Quiet weather is expected on Wednesday, as weak high pressure
lingers over the region. Area forecast soundings suggest some
middle level clouds will shift northeast into the area, lingering
into Wednesday night. Despite the clouds, highs on Wednesday look
to remain in the middle to upper 60s across the area.

Main 500 mb trough stays to the southwest and south of the area
Wednesday night into Thursday night. The southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area does get clipped by the lead 500 mb
vorticity maximum Wednesday night into Thursday. The NAM forecast
soundings show more column moisture than the GFS soundings for
that period. Kept small PoPs for showers during this time across
mainly southern and eastern portions of the area.

Steady cold air advection Wednesday night into Thursday night
should bring temperatures down steadily. May get cold enough with
mostly clear skies later Thursday night into early Friday morning
for some frost development in the western counties.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS and ECMWF develop northwest flow at 500 mb across the region
Friday into Saturday, lingering into Monday. The ECMWF continues
to show an area of light QPF later Friday night into early
Saturday morning, with the passage of a 500 mb vorticity maximum.
The GFS is dry during this time. Kept light PoPs going for Friday
night in southern and eastern portions of the area for now.

The GFS brings a surface low southeast across the western Great
Lakes region Sunday, with the ECMWF not nearly as developed with
the surface low. High pressure then builds into the region from
the northwest by Monday. Kept forecast dry for this period, with
temperatures near seasonal normals.



The strong low level jet around 2k feet lifts off to the
northeast, with a strong low exiting the Upper Great Lakes. Expect
a dry cold front this morning, with low clouds (mainly MVFR near
and post frontal). Then, mixing will occur and clearing skies from
the northwest this afternoon. High pressure will build across
southern Wisconsin tonight.



Will convert the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory through
10 am south areas, as the strong winds lift northeast ahead of a
cold front. Will let the Small Craft Advisory expire in north
areas at 7 am.

Winds will slowly diminish, as the stronger winds shift off to
the northeast, as a strong low departs the upper Great Lakes.
Northwest winds will approach Small Craft Advisory conditions
today, before winds diminish as high pressure builds across
southern Wisconsin tonight.


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643-644.



WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Wood is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.