000
FXUS63 KMKX 260925
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM MN INTO CANADA WILL TRACK SEWD
ACROSS SRN WI LATER TODAY AND TNT. A WELL ORGANIZED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL GENERATE A BAND
OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN WI. THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE SO SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS OVER ERN WI. SNOW ACCUM
FORECAST RANGES FROM ONE INCH OVER ERN WI TO 1-2 INCHES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE IMPACT OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE
MINIMAL WITH THE SNOW FALLING FIRST AND ROAD TREATMENTS OCCURRING.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR NVA STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH LINGERS SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER TO LINGER.
HINT OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED NEAR SRN IA. DECENT
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SENDS 850 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. THE ECMWF HAS
PRECIP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THE NAM LOOKS WETTER ACRS SRN WI
WITH SPLOTCHY 0.01...WITH THE GFS MORE OF A COMPROMISE WITH PRECIP
ACRS NRN WI. WILL LEAVE DRY FORECAST INTACT. 925 TEMPS SUGGEST AT
LEAST MID 30S FOR HIGHS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA AS
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WI. QPF
AMOUNTS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...LESS THAN 0.10. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIXY PRECIP PRIOR TO 6Z WITH THE WARM LAYER INTO SRN WI.
AFTER 6Z...THE LOW WRAPS COLDER AIR INTO THE AIR TO CONVERT ANY
LINGERING MIX TO LIGHT SNOW. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP AROUND
LONGER WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TEND TO WRAP THINGS UP IN THE
MORNING. GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY TAKES HOLD MIDDAY DOMINATING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH SHIFTS EAST LATER IN THE DAY THOUGH ANY
INFLUENCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO OUR WEST.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER AND MORE ASSERTIVE ON COLD AIR INTRUSION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA. BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
THE GFS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ECMWF JUST
CLIPPING THE NE CWA.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
STILL CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY ON THE DURATION AND EXTEND OF
POTENTIALLY ARCTIC COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS
STILL SHOWING 925 TEMPS OF -20 TO -22C WELL ENTRENCHED WHILE THE
GFS 8-10 DEGREES WARMER AND ALREADY HINTING AT SOME RETURN WAA BY
LATER IN THE DAY. BLENDED APPROACH STILL BEST WAY TO GO AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS VIA LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL
LINGER EARLY THIS AM OVER FAR SE WI...BUT SHOULD CLEAR AROUND
SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES SLY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI BEGINNING
AROUND 16Z AT KMSN AND 20Z FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES. VSBYS WITHIN THE
SNOW WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES WITH CIGS FALLING TO 1 KFT OR BELOW
AT TIMES. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE
AREA TNT...THE LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN
AFTER THE SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ENDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR