Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261621
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH
OF THE STATE BRINGING MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER TROF...COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL BRING A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL PEEL OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND A BEAUTIFUL DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SHOWERS NEAR
TAF SITES MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS. THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE
LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT THE SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
TODAY...AS A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. A WEAK TROF AXIS EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LOW WILL
PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
WELL. THE PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT CAPE AVAILABLE...AND
ALL OF THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM TODAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW
SOME SPECKLED QPF ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT MOVES FROM
EAST TO WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...SO DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE
FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY...AND A LOW LEVEL
JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.

MODELS WERE SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN TO CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST SUNDAY...WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS TO
THE EAST. POPS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE POPS SHOULD BE RAISED
IN LATER FORECASTS IF WET LOOK TO MODELS CONTINUES.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES FOR THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE 500
MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TO THE EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
KEPT POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH. A COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY...WITH
QPF ON BOTH MODELS. CONTINUED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

MAY SEE A BREAK WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITHIN A WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND
A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
MIX OUT AND LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING. THEN
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SFC TROF...SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ON THE SOUNDINGS...AND A RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


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