Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMKX 170842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TODAY. CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS POINTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE BEST WINDOW TO SEE SOME STORMS. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY...WITH LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING AN ENHANCED
RISK WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHT RISK EAST. ONE
CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HOW MUCH THIS WILL
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. MESOSCALE MODELS FIRE STORMS BY AROUND
NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST...SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEEMS KIND OF EARLY TO BUILD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE...WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL...WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES
ALL CONCERNS.

COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...LIKELY
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECOVERY OCCURS AFTER THE FIRST ROUND. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW WANING INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING...SO NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT THE LATER STORMS. LOOKS TO TURN DRY BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FOG THAT LINGERS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. MILWAUKEE OBS AND
WEBCAMS NOT LOOKING TO BAD AT THE MOMENT...BUT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE AROUND A BIT. THUS WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING
FROM MILWAUKEE COUNTY NORTHWARD. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH LATE
MORNING OR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.

KEPT HIGH TEMPS TODAY A BIT BELOW WHAT 925 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST
WITH GOOD MIXING...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE LOW VCNTY LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST. 850 CAA IS
STEADY THOUGH RATHER MILD 925 TEMPS LINGER. STILL A WARM DAY AS
GUSTY WEST WINDS IN GRADIENT REGION IN WAKE OF LOW ALLOWS FOR
MIXING OF THESE LINGERING MILDER 925 TEMPS...RANGING FROM 10C IN
THE NW CWA TO THE TEENS CELSIUS IN THE SE. SO EXPECTING HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 70S ESP IN THE SE CWA.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING WITH STILL A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. COLDEST 925 TEMPS OF AROUND 0C ARE
EXPECTED...THOUGH THE NAM SHOWS DOWN TO -3C. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND EASE THE WIND REGIME WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY. SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF SRN WI TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH COMBINES WITH
LINGERING EFFECTS OF COOLER AIRMASS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS
PERIOD WITH GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP EASTERN AREAS COOLER. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH ON THE PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GEM AND GFS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
SUPERBLEND POPS AND KEEP THE POPS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFS/GEM.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET.
DECENT MODIFICATION IN OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE...THOUGH NE WINDS
IN WAKE OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED TROUGH/FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
THINGS COOLER LAKESIDE ON FRIDAY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE HIGH IS PROGGD TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A WAA PATTERN
SETTING UP. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. NEVERTHELESS THE
ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP INTO WRN CWA
SO WILL LEAVE SUPERBLEND POPS AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH LOW CLOUDS MOST
PLACES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN AN ISSUE NEAR
THE LAKE...MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CIGS BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...WITH VSBY NEAR THE LAKE LIKELY
IMPROVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.
SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO
EVENTUALLY EXTEND FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THOUGH...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. IF THE FOG DOES CONTINUE...SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-060-
     066.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.