Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 182033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017


Tonight and Friday..Forecast confidence is high.

The cold front is about 2/3 of the way through the forecast area
at this time and will clear the southeast by late afternoon. Temps
will continue to fall overnight behind the front and temporarily
clearing clouds will help along cooler conditions. Lows will be a
few degrees below normal in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds are
expected to increase from the southwest later in the night, which
should keep temps from getting quite as cool as they would

Clouds will continue to increase Friday morning as an area of warm
advection and a shortwave lift into the area. Looks like plenty of
lift and moisture for showers so increased pops. The best chance
for rain will be across the south half of the forecast area, with
northernmost areas likely struggling to see much precip. It will
be a cool day across southern Wisconsin between the cooler
airmass aloft, clouds, rainfall, and east to northeast winds off
Lake Michigan.

Friday night through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

Another large upper trough and associated sfc low will move from
the central Rockies and adjacent Great Plains nwd to nw WI or ne
MN as an occluded system by Sat nt. Low to mid level warm, moist
advection will bring fairly widespread rain to south central WI
Fri nt spreading over all of srn WI for Sat. The sfc warm front
will lift nwd into far srn WI Sat aft with a cold front to follow
Sat nt. There are chances of tstorms from Fri nt into Sat nt with
very marginal CAPE forecast. The dry slot will arrive late Sat nt
and into Sun but low level instability may still result in
isolated showers on Sun. The rainfall forecast is 0.50-1.00
inches. Temps will remain slightly below normal for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

Temps will return to near normal for Mon on swly winds. However
and upper trough from the nw will pass and establish nwly flow
aloft for much of the new week. Cyclogenesis is expected just east
of the state as well. A cool and sometimes showery pattern is



Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the afternoon hours
(except for fairly persistent VFR in the southeast), with pockets
of VFR at times. Widespread VFR should return during the evening

A thin line of showers will exit the southeast by late afternoon.
Dry weather is then expected overnight.

Warm advection and a wave lifting through the area will likely
bring rain showers back to southern Wisconsin on Friday. Ceilings
should remain VFR much of the day, though some lower ceilings may
arrive from the south later in the day.



Gusty winds are expected into Saturday, veering northeast
tonight, and then easterly by later Friday night. Waves will build
to 3 to 6 feet tonight and then remain in this range through
Saturday. Will leave the Small Craft Advisory timing as is for


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Saturday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...BSH
Friday Night through Thursday...Gehring is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.