Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 171506 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODELS...STILL LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE VFR RETURN TO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID OR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE UPPER 250 MB SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY EVENING...AS A SECOND WEAKER
SHORTWAVE REACHES NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH BOTH FEATURES. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB IS
QUITE STRONG...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES...RESULTING IN
ONLY WEAK UPWARD MOTION.

MID LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE...WITH HIGH RH FROM 800 TO 925MB SO
WITH LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
EXPECTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN RESULTING IN A RATHER
WINDY DAY AND EVENING WITH THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS SHOWING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
LINGERING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY SATURDAY...SO KEPT
IT DRY. QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED. MOST
OF THE MODELS KEEP QPF OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT DRY.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 925
MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH FROST EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT COOL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. THESE MODELS THEN BRING A 500 MB RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WEST WINDS BEHIND OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WILL DROP IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOVE THROUGH THE FAR EAST AROUND NOON.

EXPECT INITIAL VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH STATE. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

MARINE...

NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO START OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS LOWER
LATER SATURDAY MORNING BUT COULD STILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE LAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



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