Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261601
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1101 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH HAVING
STRONG INFLUENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. WATER VAPOR/RAP
SHOWS RATHER BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER VCNTY NW MO/SE IA. SOME MID
CLOUDS HAVE TRIED TO ROTATE UP INTO SC WI BUT THESE HAVE
DISSIPATED. WILL WATCH FOR MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. PER VIS IMAGERY STILL A SMALL PATCH HUGGING
THE SHORELINE FROM NEAR RACINE TO NEAR PORT WASH. NOT EXPECTING
ANY INLAND PUSH WITH THIS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DENSE FOG OVER ERN WI SHOULD DISSIPATE 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
SINCE THE FOG IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP. WITH ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE
BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO ERN WI TODAY...MORE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THERE FOR TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
LEAST IN AREAS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE IL/IA/MO BORDER IS
FORECASTED TO RETROGRADE TO WRN IA BY 12Z SAT. THUS THE BETTER LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. THE SFC HIGH WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT
SELY FLOW OVER SRN WI. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CONTINUED FANTASTIC WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES...EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE DROPPING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. JUST KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE NORTH...AS MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP SLIDE THE BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...THOUGH STILL NEAR
NORMAL VALUES.

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME MILDER
AIR WED AND THU AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN WI WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE WITH A RAPID DISSIPATION EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER MORE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN WI IN THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT LEAST IS SOME
LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

MARINE...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN WI WILL ALSO SPILL OVER INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. A RAPID
DISSIPATION IN FOG IS THEN EXPECTED. MORE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



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