Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 230839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A 250 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
REACH WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OR UPWARD MOTION AT 700
MB UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN THEN IT IS WEAK.  700 MB RH IS
FAIRLY DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BROAD 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE
REACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE
800 MB THAT EXTENDS TO AROUND 700 MB.  THE CAP WEAKENS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RESULT IS MIXING OUT THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
JUST BELOW THE CAP.  ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ONLY AROUND
27 JOULES/KG BEFORE THE CAP WEAKENS.

EXPECT SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MIXING RESULTS IN DISSIPATION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME MODERATE CUMULUS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A LITTLE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT MESO MODELS SHOW A
LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND INTO THE LAKESIDE COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON.
THE LAKE BREEZE STAYS WITHIN AROUND 10 MILES OF THE LAKE. A FEW
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
FRONT...BUT THIS IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE.

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS ARE
STILL SUGGESTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH DECENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S STILL SEEM REASONABLE
FOR FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND HIGHER MOISTURE...BEST
CHANCE FOR LINGERING STORMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTHWARD. EVEN WITH THE THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA...TEMPS
ALOFT REMAIN QUITE WARM...SO WENT WITH MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.
COULD SEE A FEW PLACES CRACK 90 GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF HIGH
PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED...ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES. THIS UNCERTAINTY HAS RESULTED IN POPS MOST PERIODS.
DID KEEP MONDAY DRY DUE TO MODELS BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THAT DAY...BUT A COUPLE SOLUTIONS NOW SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS. HOPEFULLY MODELS
SETTLE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED SOON.

ONE THINGS THAT SEEMS MORE CERTAIN FOR THE LATER PERIODS IS THAT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL LIKELY HANG ON. HARD TO GET AGGRESSIVE WITH
HIGH TEMPS THOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP. WILL PROBABLY SEE A DAY OR TWO END UP WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 6
THSD FT THAT EXTENDS TO AROUND 9 TO 10 THSD FT.  THE CAP WEAKENS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE RESULT IS MIXING OUT THE SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE JUST BELOW THE CAP.  ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ONLY AROUND 27 JOULES/KG BEFORE THE CAP WEAKENS.

EXPECT SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MIXING RESULTS IN DISSIPATION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME MODERATE CUMULUS POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON.

A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
FRONT...BUT THIS IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MESO MODELS SHOW
A LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THAT PUSHES
INLAND INTO THE LAKESIDE COUNTIES AROUND NOON.

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAKE
AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



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