Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 120825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A 115 KNOT SOUTHWEST/WEST 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THAT WILL
REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY TODAY THAT BECOMES MODERATE TO STRONG THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES JUST TO THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY.

LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATE AHEAD OF A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE.
EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE RAIN AREA MOVES ACROSS.  MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY CLEAR SKIES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
THERE IS SOME FROST POTENTIAL...BUT THE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH SO ONLY SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE DELLS AREA.

UNSEASONABLE COOL AIR AND CLOUDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID 50S MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 60 ON SATURDAY AND THE LOWER
TO MID 60S SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
WILL BRING SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET... A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH... AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. THIS COULD BRING A
ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA.

THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH EXITING THE UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI... DELAYING IT UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON RATHER THAN
MIDDAY MONDAY LIKE THE GFS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE BACK INTO WISCONSIN IN THE
WAKE OF THAT WEAK MONDAY SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE EASTERN HALF
UNDER A TROUGH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES TO TEMPORARILY RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CIGS EARLY...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AS A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BRINGING AN AREA OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC



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