Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
914 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016


Main focus for tonight has been on whether or not any fog or low
stratus will develop. As of 9pm, a few sites have started to drop
into the 7-9 mile range but it hasn`t gone below that yet.
RAP soundings suggest that there will be a strong low level
inversion which will trap some moisture in at the low levels.
However, winds in this inversion layer look like they`ll be strong
enough to promote some sort of mixing and not allow the fog
development. Meso-models also appear to be way over-doing the
amount of moisture in place right now with the main nose of low
level moisture transport still way down in the southern plains.
So, based on the winds staying higher than calm overnight, have
backed off on the patchy fog development. Lower ceilings are more
so expected tomorrow night as the next system arrives.



Have left some high end MVFR visibilities in for the overnight
hours since a few sites have dropped into the 7-9sm range but
confidence is not high that any lower conditions will occur.
Higher confidence in lower conditions is for Sunday evening as the
next system approaches from the west. Rain will accompany these
lower conditions which should arrive between 9pm-12am Sunday


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/


TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

High clouds will continue into the evening, but will probably clear
out for a time tonight before returning tomorrow ahead of
approaching low pressure. The main question tonight into Sunday
morning is whether or not fog forms. Winds will be light and given
current dewpoints in the mid 30s, it is certainly feasible to see
some fog develop. Models do show dewpoints trending lower overnight
though, which might inhibit development. Opted to just go with
patchy fog for now given the uncertainty. Stuck close to a consensus
blend of temps for tonight given no obvious reason to deviate.

It will likely be dry into the afternoon tomorrow ahead of
approaching low pressure, with a little rain possibly arriving in
the west by late afternoon. Above normal temperatures are expected
again, with highs similar to what has been observed today.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence high.

Strong cyclogenesis will transition to an occlusion Sun night into
Mon AM over the ern Dakotas. A surge of low to mid level warm,
moist advection along with frontogenesis will bring a round of
moderate rainfall to srn WI Sun night. Afterward, another strong
shortwave trough over the srn Great Plains will swing newd to
Lower MI Mon night. Strong PVA and a wave of low pressure will
move across the wrn Great Lakes with another round of moderate
rainfall to srn WI. Total rainfall amounts will range from
0.75-1.00 inches. Swly winds and drier air will then follow in
the wake of the low for Tue. Mon-Tue will have high temps in the

LONG TERM...Wed-Sat...Forecast confidence medium.

The occluded system will then linger over the Lake Superior region
for Wed-Thu with the remnants to possibly shift sewd across srn
WI on Fri. Temps will remain slightly above normal for this period
with only slight chances of very light rain or snow mainly north
of Madison and Milwaukee.


The main forecast issue tonight into tomorrow morning remains
whether fog develops or not. Models are still split on this
scenario. Decided to keep some lower visibilities in the forecast
given the uncertainty, but did not go as low as some of the models

VFR conditions are then expected on Sunday after any fog that
develops overnight dissipates by mid-morning. Rain ahead of
approaching low pressure will likely hold off until Sunday evening,
though a few showers are possible west by late afternoon.


Southerly winds will increase ahead of approaching low pressure
Sunday, possibly reaching gale force by midnight Sunday night. Latest
forecast wind gusts suggest the Gale Watch timing still looks good,
stretching from midnight Sun night though most of Monday night. The
strong winds will build high waves, the highest in the northern
marine zones.

LM...GALE WATCH from late Sunday night through late Monday night for




LM...GALE WATCH from late Sunday night through late Monday night for



Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Gehring is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.