Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN EARLY THU AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH WARMER THU THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS THE
HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD AT TIMES... AND ANOTHER DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA.
BEST POOLING OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED
NEAR ADVANCING TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM MN
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY DAYS END ON FRIDAY. SO 925 TEMPS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE HERE WITH SOME UPTICK IN DEW POINTS AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE RETREATING HIGH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FOCUS WILL BE ON TSRA POTENTIAL WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
INTO THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR GETS UP TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROGGD TO 7-7.5 C/KM. THE TREND IN LATEST
MODEL RUNS IS FOR THIS FRONT TO SPEED UP AND COME THROUGH A BIT
QUICKER THAN PAST RUNS. THE GFS DOES SHOW ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CAPE BUILDUP TO NEAR 2K J/KG INTO MIDDAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE TENDS TO STABILIZE THINGS
SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD TRENDING DOWN
SOMEWHAT IN THE NORTH SAT AFTN AND THEN GOING DRY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE 00Z GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH THE FRONT WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWED SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHRA
OR TSRA HOWEVER THE TREND IS TO SHIFT THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP THE AREA LARGELY RAIN FREE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z
GFS. AND THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SHOWING A SOLUTION FAVORING THE
QUICKER GFS. SO WILL GO DRY THIS PERIOD WITH THE FRONT HAVING
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING INTO MONDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT QUICKER ON THE RETURN WAA/MOIST ADVECTION LATER
MONDAY BUT WILL STICK WITH THE DRY SUPERBLEND POPS.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO CATCH UP TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF SPEED
OF SYSTEMS. THIS TIME SHOWING A QUICKER SOLUTION WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM. PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 2 MODELS THIS FAR OUT.
PERHAPS A LINGERING POP INTO TUESDAY EVENING. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
DRY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A QUICK RETURN OF WAA/MOIST
ADVECTION WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A POP PER SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
MOVES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AT TIMES... AND SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PATCHY IFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY/AVIATION...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR


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