Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
FAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME MIXING WITH 5 TO 10
MPH WINDS DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN WI...BUT
THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE EAST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WHICH BRINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...CLOSER TO BUT NOT AS LOW AS LATEST HRRR. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FAVORED LOW-LYING LOCATIONS IF WINDS DIE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED.

LATEST NAM BRINGS LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE FAR SW CWA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY 09Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PCPN TO BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A
PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER APPROACHING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BETWEEN 500 FT AND 1K FT WILL
BE AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN EASING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LATEST NAM KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OUT OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS. STILL EXPECT THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE SITES BY 09Z....WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OBSERVATION SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...BUT SHIP OBS ARE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CRITERIA TO
DROP HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAY SATURDAY FOR WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING


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