Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200904
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
304 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence...High

High amplitude mid/upper trough approaching with ridge across the
lake Michigan area.  Ridge moves off to the eastern Great lakes
tonight as the trough flattens as it moves across Wisconsin tonight.
Upper level divergence increases later this afternoon and evening,
weakening as the trough moves across eastern Wisconsin. rater strong
700 mb upward motion over south central Wisconsin early this
evening. best chance of thunderstorms with line of showers expected
then.

Southerly flow continues with 850 moisture advection noted
associated with increasing LLJ ahead of approaching trough.
Forecast soundings have extensive dry layer through the morning with
moistening mainly below 850 mb. Still GFS does not saturate much,
and appears daytime mixing also comes into play.  Therefore then
stratus/fog potential is questionable.

As a result mainly mid/high clouds initially that will hold down
heating a little, but this is offset by increasing 925/850 mb
temperature`s.  Therefore record highs again possible mainly inland
areas.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is high.

Clouds are expected to diminish through late Tue morning as the
moves out of WI. Look for temperatures to rebound into the lower 60s
once again on a southwesterly breeze. The 925mb temps should reach
around 10C, similar to values observed Sunday.

A weak surface low will track across northern WI Wed in response to
a shortwave. Precip associated with the low will remain well to our
north, but an extra push of warm air will give us a chance at highs
in the upper 60s across southern WI on Wed. Expect a little more
wind with this system.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The next shortwave is expected to cross the Midwest and dig through
the Great Lakes Region late this week. This will bring a stronger
low pressure system across northern IL and southeast WI. Precip type
will be rain ahead of the low, but colder air on the back side
should lead to a changeover to a rain/snow mix for southern WI Thu
night. Fair agreement between the GFS and ECWMF support accumulating
light snow across WI in the trowal region Fri night.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... Forecast confidence is medium.

Southern WI will be in a colder pattern for early next week. An
active weather pattern will continue, bringing a chance of snow or a
rain/snow mix on Sunday and again Monday.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Southerly flow continues with 850 moisture advection noted
associated with increasing LLJ ahead of approaching trough.
Forecast soundings have extensive dry layer through the morning with
moistening mainly below 850 mb. Still GFS does not saturate much,
and appears daytime mixing also comes into play.  Therefore then
stratus/fog potential is questionable. Therefore although there is
some potential for IFR fog/stratus, it could end up mainly VFR until
the band of showers and chance of thunderstorms come through later
early this evening and tonight.

Southeast winds will gradually increase Monday, with gusts into the
lower 20 knot range possible this afternoon. Winds will veer south
Monday evening, and west later Monday night, after the wind shift
boundary moves through.

&&

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 2 pm this afternoon and
into tonight, as a tight pressure gradient over the region brings
gusty southeast to south winds. These winds should bring building
waves over the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan later Monday into
Monday evening.  Some fog possible tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record highs remain possible through Wednesday at Milwaukee and
Madison, with the unseasonably warm airmass over the region.
Milwaukee may remain in the 50s Monday, with persistent onshore
winds.

Milwaukee record highs: 2/20 = 60 (1930), 2/21 = 58 (1930), 2/22 =
62 (1984).

Madison record highs:
 2/20 = 57 (1930), 2/21 = 60 (1930), 2/22 = 60 (1984, 1930).

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CST
     Tuesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...MRC



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