Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141542
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1042 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES.
STILL SOME LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT SO MAY SEE A FEW CU POP HERE
AND THERE BUT LOW LEVELS MUCH DRIER THAN YESTERDAY AND CORE OF
COLDEST AIR ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. PATCH
OF MVFR CU HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM CNTRL INTO SC WI. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO COLUMN MOISTURE WHATSOEVER. THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WI TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH STILL BRINGING
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SRN WI.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE AIR
MASS IS COOLER WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 4 TO 5F
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A LIGHT WIND OFF THE
LAKE...SO COOLEST READINGS THERE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE TAKING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME DRY AIR IN THE AREA...SUPPORTED
BY AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THERE IS SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW WEAK TO MODEST MEAN LAYER AND ELEVATED CAPE. 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE TRIES TO POINT INTO THE AREA FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS
WELL.

THUS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MAY NEED
FURTHER CUTS IN POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF DRIER TREND CONTINUES IN MODELS. KEPT HIGHER END
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY...WITH POPS LINGERING SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THEY SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA KEEPING ANY QPF SOUTH OF THE AREA.

CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER FURTHER OR
REMOVE THEM IN LATER FORECASTS IF DRY TREND CONTINUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
LINGERING.

ECMWF/GFS THEN SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES WITH SURFACE LOW
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PLACEMENT. CONTINUED TO USE CONSENSUS BLEND
FOR POPS DURING THIS TIME...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
EXPECTED...SO NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD


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