Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS63 KMKX 220934
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... DISCUSSION COMING SOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDWEST 500MB
CLOSED UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST. SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL END UP IN THE DRY SLOT FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
MEANS MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AND LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST... SO
WE CAN GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG.

A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER THE AR/MO AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WED EVENING. A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHEAST WI WILL
BE ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. I LOWERED THE PRECIP
CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD NOT
EVEN BE VERY STRONG EXCEPT FOR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

925MB TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW 0C IN SOUTHEAST WI TUE EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN -5C THROUGH WED NIGHT. WE WILL BE HOVERING AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK AT THE SURFACE... SO THIS WILL MEAN A RAIN OR SNOW
MIX FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIP WE GET.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER IN SOUTHERN
WI CHRISTMAS DAY.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU
NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOUTHERN WI IN THE DRY AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DISCUSSION COMING SOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.