Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191924
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
224 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

High pressure will bring mostly clear skies overnight after cumulus
clouds dissipate by early evening. Mid and high level clouds will
move through at least the southern half of the forecast area Friday
as a weak low slides by to the south. These clouds will likely hold
back temps a degree or two in the south, but overall temps will be
around normal tomorrow. Cooler temps will persist near Lake Michigan.

.FRIDAY Night and Saturday...Forecast Confidence...High

A weak upper level shortwave moves across the upper Ohio valley
and southern Lake Michigan area Friday night with a second weak
shortwave moving across southern Wisconsin. Weak upper level
divergence extends across much of southern Wisconsin Friday night.
Little in the way of 700 mb upward motion. The higher 700 mb rh
stays south across northern Illinois. The 700 and 850 mb high
remains across the forecast area.

The large upper ridge extends across the Northern Plains.

An onshore flow is expected during the due to either diurnally
induced lake breeze formation or overall synoptic scale flow
favoring the wind off the lake.

.Saturday Night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence...High

The large upper ridge moves into the Upper mississippi valley.

By Sunday we will be positioned in a favorable position within an
elongated mid level ridge axis between approaching plains trough
and east coast trough. The 850 mb ridge extends across the Lake
Michigan area with a south flow developing west of madison.

700 mb rh remains low with the ridge across eastern  Wisconsin.
The surface flow becomes more southerly on Sunday...but a
southeast flow is still expected off Lake michigan by afternoon.


.LONG TERM...

.Sunday Night and Monday...Forecast Confidence...High

The upper ridge moves into the western Great Lakes with a more
southwest flow developing late monday afternoon mainly over south
central Wisconsin.

The low level anticyclone reaches the eastern great Lakes...and
allows for a south 925/850 flow to lead to further warming across
southern Wisconsin.

Other than a hundredth of the GFS...the accumulating
precipitation stays west of the Mississippi River.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The mid/upper level flow is southwest...with several weak
shortwaves across southern Wisconsin.

The Surface cold front should be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. The superblend chances of precipitation are
reasonable showing the uptick in precip Tuesday with the cold
front and Wednesday with a weak surface trough.

.THursday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A somewhat stronger shortwave moves into the central plains. while
the main surface boundary is well south and the surface low well
southwest...the models do show some light precipitation over
southern Wisconsin.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will persist through Friday under high pressure.
Diurnal cumulus will dissipate late afternoon into early evening.
Could see a little more cumulus tomorrow, but the bulk of clouds
will be mid/high level deck moving in from the south.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will bring light winds and low waves through the
weekend.


&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...Hentz



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