Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 131459
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
959 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.UPDATE...

The radiation and river valley fog that developed overnight will
continue to improve through the rest of the morning and should be
completely dissipated by noon. The band of lake fog and stratus
coming onshore should also diminish this morning but at a slower
rate and may remain in place until early afternoon, but this too
should eventually lift and diminish through the day. Otherwise,
not much change to the going forecast with mostly clear skies
outside of some mid/high level moisture across far SE WI in assoc
with the remnant circulation of Irma. Highs today should generally
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s though locations along the
immediate lakeshore that stay under the clouds longer will be
cooler.

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore flow will keep winds at one foot or below this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 710 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Areas of fog, some dense, will gradually
dissipate over the next few hours. Then VFR conditions until
more fog late this evening into the overnight especially over se
WI due to a moisture increase from the south. More dense fog and
low stratus is possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 421 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Used webcams, observations, and the GOES 16 fog product to decide
on the Dense Fog Advisory for Racine and Kenosha Counties. Other
areas of concern are nrn Sauk, Green Lake, Marquette,se Walworth
Counties. Also, the usual dense fog in the WI River Valley.
Otherwise, most of the fog should dissipate by 14z with another
mostly sunny, warm day.

For tnt, some of the low level moisture from the remnants of Irma
will spread into se WI. This will contribute to more fog and low
stratus from late evening into the overnight. A dense fog advisory
may be needed.

LONG TERM...

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Low pressure in the plains will extend an inverted trough
northeast through northern WI. Southerly winds will continue to
pump warm and more humid air into southern WI through Saturday.
Look for winds to increase through the week as the pressure
gradient increases with the low approaching. The amplified upper
trough over the western U.S. will draw in some Pacific moisture
which will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances for southern WI
Saturday night through Sunday.

For those making plans this weekend, it does not look like a long
duration of rain. There might be a couple showers or storms that
hit a given location between Saturday night and Sunday afternoon.

Timing of the cold front Sunday is still uncertain. If it slows
down, Sunday will be warmer than what the forecast is showing
right now.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Cooler temperatures will return by Monday on an easterly breeze,
then rebound back to around 80 by mid week. The GFS brings
another round of showers and storms through southern WI again Mon
nt into Tue. The ECWMF keeps us dry due to a stronger high to our
east. The Canadian model favors the wetter GFS solution.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Radiational cooling has led to areas of fog
this morning over srn WI. Some fog is dense mainly over portions
of Racine and Kenosha Counties and the WI River Valley. Other
localized areas of dense fog is possible. The fog should mostly
dissipate by 14z. Then VFR conditions until more fog late this
evening into the overnight especially over se WI due to moisture
increase from the south. More dense fog and low stratus is
possible.

MARINE...

Relatively Light winds and low wave heights for today
through Thu nt. Areas of fog may develop tonight as moisture
increases from the south.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

Update...BM
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...BM
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Davis



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