Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 162034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 00Z
SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. FRONTOGENESIS THEN SHIFTS
TO THE WEST AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SEEN FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO EAST OF THE
APPLETON AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 500 TO
900 J/KG WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...HIGHEST VALUES IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THUS...COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN A STRONGER
STORM. INSTABILITY WEAKENS LATER IN THE EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS
BRING THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THEY ARE DIFFERENT WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE...GIVEN DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS OF MESOSCALE MODELS. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...HANGING
ONTO LOW POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH IN CASE SHOWERS LINGER
THERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. EXPECT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT LATER ON SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS...THINK THAT ANY FOG WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BRISK
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR
THE LAKE...WITH MID 70S WELL INLAND.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER RIDGE HOLDS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN BREAKS DOWN WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH. A LEAD SHORT WAVE CROSSES STATE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z MONDAY...WITH MODEL QPF TIED TO Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FAR NW AFTER 09Z MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

BETTER FORCING WITH WAA AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING UNDER
MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST MODELS
TAKING IT ACROSS SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE MON NIGHT. OVERALL FORCING
FOR ASCENT ENHANCED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL TREND POS UP  FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY AS SHORT WAVE CROSSES STATE MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH NAM TAKES BETTER 850-700MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
OVER IL WITH STRONGER CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW OVER MORE SOUTHERLY
850MB THERMAL RIDGE. STILL ENOUGH FORCING OVER SRN WI FOR LIKELY
POPS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF WI BY 12Z TUE AS THE MAIN
500 MB TROUGH SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
WEAK UPPER FLOW...BROADENING AS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS VARY WITH TIMING...STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF FEATURES...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT A TRAILING SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE NAM
AND GEM DRY REGION OUT BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSENSUS POPS TO LOWER THEM IN THE SOUTHWEST
CWA.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

WEAK UPPER FLOW LEADS TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER TOUGH...WITH MODELS
STILL AT ODDS CONCERNING STRENGTH AND CONFIGURATION. LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN
PCPN WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING. BLENDED SOLUTION LEADS TO POPS IN
EVERY PERIOD...BUT TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT TIMES LEAST LIKELY TO SEE PCPN
WITH LOWEST POPS. TEMPS WILL BE AT...OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN A STRONGER STORM. FOR
NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITHIN A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SOME GUSTS WILL APPROACH 22 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL NOT ISSUE
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
CAUTION. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

A MODERATE SWIM RISK WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
BEACHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND
BECOME GUSTY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
COMBINE TO BRING THE MODERATE SWIM RISK. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM


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