Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190147 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
847 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...CORRECTED TO MOVE UP THE START TIME OF THE FROST ADVISORY...

.UPDATE...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVERHEAD. WINDS AT MOST OBSERVING
SITES ARE CALM AND TEMPS ARE CRASHING. THERE IS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT/S ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF. BUT...THIS SHOULD REMAIN THIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON TEMPS.
FROST IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THE FAST DROP IN
TEMPS...HAVE MOVED THE START TIME OF THE FROST ADVISORY TO
MIDNIGHT INSTEAD OF 3 AM. ANOTHER CONCERN COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG DUE TO THE RAPID TEMP DROP AND THE T/TD SPREAD
GETTING QUITE TIGHT. I DON/T THINK IT WILL BE A BIG ISSUE GIVEN
THE OVERALL DRY NATURE OF THE COLUMN. WITH THAT SAID...THE CURRENT
FCST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MID DAY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. WINDS AND
WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO RESULT IN LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY AS IS FOR
MILWAUKEE...RACINE...AND KENOSHA COUNTIES...WHERE A WIDESPREAD FROST
HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED YET THIS SEASON.

SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN
AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES
A DECENT AMOUNT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND THERE IS SOME LIFT...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THUS CONFINED AFTERNOON POPS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR NOW.
GIVEN HOW MODELS STRUGGLED WITH MOISTURE EARLIER TODAY THOUGH...AND
SOME MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PRECIP TOMORROW...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED AT A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A 1007 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN NT AND MON. A SRN EXTENSION OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WI EARLY
MON AM...AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SUN NT...AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA INTO
MON AM IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
ERN WI DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN USA AND NELY FLOW ONSHORE FROM LAKE MI
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS INTO TUE OVER
AT LEAST ERN WI. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MERIDIONAL ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED AND WED NT. THE HIGH WILL THEN
WEAKEN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAST FLOW FLATTENING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CANADA. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
FORM FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THUS THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THUS WSWLY FLOW AND
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT. THE REMNANTS OF A
DECAYING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR WRN
CWA ON THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MARINE...

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER WAVES MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.
OTHERWISE...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE AS A RESULT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072.

LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING



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