Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS63 KMKX 252037
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEY ARE
FOCUSING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT DEFINED BY A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE
FROM SOUTH TO SW WITHIN THE LEADING GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHEST CAPE
AND LOWER CAPE. BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL.
WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH HAIL SO FAR.

THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN WHERE
THE WARM FRONT IS MEETING UP WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFT IS MEETING UP WITH
THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUOUSLY
DEVELOPING. THERE IS HIGH 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT IN THIS AREA
ALTHOUGH LOWER CAPE. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING. CAPE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND IF IT DEVELOPS AND THERE IS A LARGER HAIL
THREAT. THESE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
MORE OF A LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LAKE BREEZE
INFLUENCE WHICH INCREASES THE 0-1KM SHEAR.

PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOW BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI BY 7 PM OR 8 AT THE
LATEST.

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
THERE IS 2000 TO 3000 FEET THICK LAYER OF SATURATION WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH MID TUE
MORNING.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING THE NEXT CIRCULATION TO BEGIN IMPINGING ON
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD SUNRISE ON WED. MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH A CHANCE SNEAKING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AFTER 4 AM.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A DECENT BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A DEEP AND
PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM IS DISPLACED QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN IL LATE WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THE DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ERODE THE ADVANCING RAIN TO THE
NORTH. THE NAM IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE WITH THE RAIN...KEEPING IT
OUT OF OUR NE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/EC/GEM DO TAKE IT
THROUGH SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SUPPORT DIMINISHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE
SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE RAIN END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLIER.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND COOL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUT
THE COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW DOMINATES.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SIMILAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE COOL EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINES OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR FOR TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED WITHIN
THE STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND A LOW STRATUS DECK...BELOW 1000
FT...INTO SRN WI. LOW CONFIDENCE... BUT THERE COULD BE DRIZZLE WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME ASSOCIATED MVFR FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY. LOOK FOR THOSE WINDS TO TURN STRONG AND GUSTY
LATER TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUE AFTN.  WAVES WILL
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUE AM. THE HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE WHILE FALLING
BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE TUE EVE NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.