Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 162316
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
616 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Clear skies tonight. Enough mixing with pressure gradient at
surface to prevent ground fog.


&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR SKC for this forecast period. Stronger WSW lower level wind
max moving through tonight with decent low level inversion so
looks like a favorable setup for some LLWS. Enough mixing at
surface to prevent fog.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday - Confidence...High
A dry and unseasonably warm period is expected. Moisture will be
meager with a trough passage Wednesday night. This set up a brief
shot of cooler air for a time into Thursday but no major cool-
down with this feature. Then southwest winds reload for Friday
ahead of a Plains storm system.

Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Models continue to advertise our next potential rain maker. Mid
level trough approaches with a surface/850 front. Best window for
precip comes Saturday night into a good part of Sunday. So the
Superblend pops look pretty good given the consensus this far out.

Monday - Confidence...Medium
Secondary trough expected with a thermal ridge axis building back
up before shot of cold advection Monday night. Will stick with the
Superblend POPS for now which at least hints at a few showers.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR SKC for this forecast period. Stronger
WSW lower level wind max moving through tonight with decent low
level inversion so looks like a favorable setup for some LLWS.

MARINE...Will be monitoring the need for a small craft advisory
into midweek as pressure gradient tightens with increasing
south/southwest winds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...Collar


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