Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 201304 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
804 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017


Showers are developing ahead of the main line of rain and
spreading into southern WI already this morning. The meso models
have a general handle on these, so no surprises so far. It still
looks like the main time for showers in Milwaukee and Madison will
be from 11 to 1, but some models are suggesting the showers
lingering a little longer into the afternoon.



Ceilings will continue to decline this morning from around 2500
ft down to 700 ft by midday. Winds will be steady and strong out
of the east for most of the day.

There is a chance for ceilings below 500 feet in the wake of the
rain this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017)


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

A closed upper low will track from the Plains into the Upper
Midwest during this time period. This will bring a couple of
rounds of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms into
southern WI today and tonight due to repeated rounds of vorticity
advection and frontogenesis.

The line of showers heading northward is drying up and dissipating
as it hits the WI border early this morning. This is due to dry
east flow. Cloud bases are on their way down as the low level
moisture increases.

The next round of rain is expected to reach south central WI
around 8 am this morning and then slide northward through the
I-94 corridor around noon. There will be some weak instability and
strong omega with this round, so kept mention of thunder in the

Shower chances will taper off from south to north through late
afternoon. There could be some isolated showers and thunderstorms
during the evening hours as one more shortwave tracks through.

Southern WI will be under cloud cover most of the day, but there
could be some breaks behind the main line near the IL border late
in the afternoon. Max temps will range from the lower 50s north to
around 60 south.


Sunday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Low pressure will continue to pull away to the north on Sunday,
while the northern edge of high pressure begins to build in from
the south. Should be a lot of clouds hanging around through the
day between the departing surface low and approaching upper wave.
Temps will remain below normal Sunday.

A push of milder temps back into the area will likely kick off a
round of showers and a few storms on Monday. Low pressure passing
through the region is then expected to bring continued showers
Monday night into Tuesday. Precip chances will be decreased by
Wednesday as high pressure builds in.

After milder temps back near normal for Monday, cooler temps are
likely to return for Tue/Wed.

Thursday and Friday....Forecast confidence is medium to high:

High pressure is progged to persist into late week, which would
suggest mainly dry weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps are
expected to rebound back to around normal to end the work week.


No change to the scenario over the next 24 to 36 hours. Another
surge of moisture arrives from the south Saturday morning, ahead
of large area of low pressure that will track from southwest Iowa
to northern Wisconsin between Saturday afternoon and Sunday
afternoon. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS will return quickly on Saturday with
IFR CIGS expected by early afternoon. Those lower conditions will
persist through at least Saturday night. Winds will remain
easterly, turning southeast Saturday evening.


Easterly winds and waves will remain elevated today resulting in
small craft advisory conditions through late this afternoon.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
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