Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180811
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD BE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLING
ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY...MILDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE COOLEST CONDITIONS NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN.

TEMPS WILL KEEP FALLING TONIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO AROUND 0C BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY...WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING IN FARTHER THAN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE ION PLACE ACROSS THE WRN GRT LAKES.
AS LOW PULLS EVEN FURTHER AWAY GRADIENT EXPECTED TO RELAX. HIGH
WILL FURTHER NOSE INTO WI...SLACKENING THE NW WINDS. BUFKIT SHOWS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MILLIBARS TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. THIS MIXES OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
CONSENSUS OF MOS AND LLVL RH PROGS SUGGEST A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND LLVL RH
PROGS SUGGEST DRYING. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL RH IS NOTED
DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE
QUITE LOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING IN FROM THE PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO
PHASE A BIT WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CANADIAN TROUGH. THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A BIT MORE QPF INTRUSION INTO SRN WI THAN THE
LARGELY DRY GFS. WILL PUT A SMALL POP IN THE SW CWA TO BLEND WITH
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WFO NEIGHBORS. BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO PASS
US SOUTH CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED 850
BAROCLINIC ZONE.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD NW CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD UP
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF WEEKEND WEATHER MAKER. SURFACE
AND 850 RIDGING EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. MODELS STILL
SUGGESTING A FRONT DROPPING DOWN THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING
UP A COOL FRIDAY FOR LAKESHORE LOCATIONS WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PROGS SUGGESTING WE EEK OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY. SURFACE HIGH...WHILE
WELL EAST...STILL SHOWING RIDGING BACK INTO WI WITH BETTER
MOISTURE INFLUX ASSOC WITH LLJ REMAINING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
VICINITY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI THIS PERIOD SO EXPECT
INFLUENCE OF LLJ AND POTENTIAL VORT MAXES IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW TO START BRINGING PRECIP INTO SRN WI. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS THE SUPERBLEND POPS APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE
HANDLE ON THINGS...WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT NOT CHANGE A WHOLE
LOT DIRECTIONALLY. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY MAY ALLOW A LAKE
BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS THUS BEING ISSUED. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY THEN REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH THE GUSTS AFTER SUNSET...BUT SEEMED LIKE ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
RUN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 06Z. WAVES WILL STAY ON THE LOW
END DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR



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