Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221725 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AT TIMES...
AND SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75 KNOT 250
MB SPEED MAX ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STRENGTHENS LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH REACHES THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S.

MAINLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
TODAY.  700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

A WEAK 850 MB RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 800 MB TO AROUND
600 MB.  THE CAP WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS ONLY AROUND 13 JOULES/KG.  A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...SO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME MODERATE
CUMULUS POSSIBLE AS THE CAP WEAKENS.  DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT A
LITTLE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LIGHT WEST FLOW MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT MESO MODELS SHOW A LAKE
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND INTO THE LAKESIDE COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON.  THE
LAKE BREEZE DOES NOT QUITE REACH WAUKESHA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
FRONT...BUT IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE.

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPS A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS LIKE SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNDER A
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. MODELS GENERALLY WIND THE SHOWERS/STORMS DOWN SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THE CANADIAN HANGS ONTO PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON
UNDER A STRONGER SURFACE LOW.

HIGH TEMPS A BIT TRICKY FOR SAT/SUN...AS TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST MID
80S TO AROUND 90...BUT PRECIP AND CLOUDS COULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVES NOT SET
IN STONE...OPTED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH TEMPS
FOR NOW.

LOOKS DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MOVES INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 6 THSD FT TO
AROUND 12 THSD FT.  THE CAP WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ZERO TO 1
KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ONLY AROUND 13 JOULES/KG.  A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...SO SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN SOME
MODERATE CUMULUS POSSIBLE AS THE CAP WEAKENS.

MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
FRONT...BUT IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE.

MARINE...

LIGHT WEST FLOW EARLY TODAY...BUT MESO MODELS SHOW A LAKE BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE LAKESIDE COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST THIS MORNING THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NEARSHORE AREA WITH THE LAKE BREEZE.  THE LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVER THE LAKE AGAIN
DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



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