Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240816
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CANADA.
THUS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECREASE OVER
THESE REGIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS...PWS WILL
INCREASE TO ONE INCH OVER THE WRN CWA FOR TNT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS NOTED ON MODELS. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VERY
MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER THE FAR WRN
CWA. THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF LIGHT MODEL QPF SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WRN CWA TONIGHT. SCT-BKN UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. A SOMEWHAT MILD
NIGHT EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES A WEAKLY CLOSED OFF CIRCULATION
ACROSS SRN WI. THIS FEATURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN ANTICYCLONIC AND QUITE DRY LOOKING
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IN FACT CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS
IS FOR SOME MID CLOUDINESS AT BEST. 925 TEMPS ARE 14-16C SO
LOW/MID 70S FOR MOST.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MODELS VARY ON HANDLING OF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. HOWEVER IN THE LOW LEVELS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO SRN WI FROM THE EAST. JUST A SUBTLE INCREASE IN 925
TEMPS THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THIS PERIOD AND
POTENTIALLY A BIT DEEPER INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS
18-19C BY THEN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SLIDES IT SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ARRIVING LATER MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERBLEND WINDS TEND TO FAVOR THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL PLAYED OUT BY THE ECMWF. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL BE A DRY
FRONT. GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THE PRECIP. AGAIN PREFER THE
DRY LOOK OF THE ECMWF.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
PREFER THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRENDS IN GEM/ECMWF WITH UPPER LOW
SLOWLY EJECTING FROM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW SUGGESTS MORE OF A GLANCING SHOT OF PRECIP
SHIELD IN ERN WI. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS UPPER SYSTEM FURTHER WEST
WITH INFLUENCE OF SURFACE KEEPING ALL PRECIP AT BAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCT-BKN150-200 CIRRUS CLOUDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


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