Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 192014
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

MCS roaring through MN this afternoon with a path taking it
towards southern WI riding along a boundary that stretches just
south of the area or at least running through southwest or
southern WI. Huge dewpoint gradient exists at this time with upper
50s in Sheboygan to lower and mid 70s just south and west of
Madison. MCS will pack a punch most likely with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall possible...to pin point an exact track is still
iffy but it looks like the area will be impacted by this
convective system. Another less likely issue will be behind the
system...possible that strong low level jet perpendicular to the
boundary may help to produce some training cells that could drop
heavy rainfall of a narrow area. Much to watch tonight!

Thursday should see a period of dry conditions with some clouds
lingering...small chance that a few afternoon/evening showers or
thunderstorms could develop. Warm and humid conditions continue.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday

Friday begins a second punch of possible heavy rainfall with
showers and thunderstorms possible through the day. the set-up is
ripe for heavy rainfall with solid dynamics and High PWATS. would
be possible for some to see 2 to 3 inches of rain on Friday.
Slight risk for severe storms on that day...but with many areas
very wet at this time flooding concerns are the main threat
especially for those hit so hard last week. Temps hanging in the
lower 80s for highs.

Over the weekend the chances for showers and thunderstorms are
lesser on Sunday than Saturday. Warmer temps on Sat with mid 80s
and just a bot cooler on Sunday with temps barely hitting 80.
After the weekend mainly dry and pleasant late July conditions
look to continue to start next week with highs in the mid to upper
70s and dewpoints in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
Multiple concerns for the TAF period...stratocu lifting across
much of Southern WI is the first concern...no so much at MKE or
UES...but elsewhere an issue for a few more hours at least. The
second concern is the huge thunderstorm complex nearing the MN/IA
border from SD...it should continue to move south and east towards
the region overnight into the area. Timing will be an issue and
it may be earlier than forecast...but it should be expected and
will have the possible impact of strong gusty winds at times and
low visibility and ceilings when it impacts the region. Finally
the last concern will be wind shear overnight...significant low
level jet will be present and linger through the early morning
hours of Thursday. Outside of this light to modest winds and
mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Clouds have lifted from this morning with mainly clear
skies...light winds from the northeast or east will continue.
waves should be very modest at best with the only real concern
the possible shot of thunderstorms from the system moving across
MN at this time. After that threat passes by early morning...light
winds and modest wave action will continue through the day
Thursday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...ABS
Thursday Night through Wednesday...ABS



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