Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220531
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1131 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Skies have cleared most areas.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions.

Skies have cleared most areas.

Northwest winds will becoming more west by Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 902 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)

UPDATE...

Sill some stratocumulus far east, rest of the area is clear.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory expires at 9 pm cdt. May still have a few
gusts to 25 knots toward open water late this evening, but shore
areas should be below 25 knots.  Waves will remain in the 1-4
foot range, with highest toward open waters.

Winds will increase considerably Friday ahead of the next front.
Small craft conditions seem like a good bet, with gales certainly
possible. Winds will remain gusty behind the front Saturday,
before diminishing by early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 521 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)

UPDATE...

Skies clearing quickly with just a few clouds far east.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions.

Skies have cleared most area, with some lingering scattered
stratocumulus early this afternoon far east.

Gusty northwest winds are diminishing with loss of heating.
Winds will continue to gradually decrease this evening, becoming
more west by Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 139 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night...High Forecast
Confidence.

Cooler and much drier air continues to build into the area this
afternoon on the heels of a cold front that passed through the
region this morning. Northwest winds will remain gusty into this
evening, with a gradual dropoff during the late evening and
overnight hours. Lows tonight will fall into the upper teens to
around 20 degrees.

Cool but otherwise pleasant conditions are expected on Wednesday
as surface high pressure builds south and east through the lower
Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Winds will become southerly tomorrow
night, helping to keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid to
upper 20s.

Some model guidance has been showing an area of very light
precipitation pushing southeast across northern Wisconsin tomorrow
night, with a few very light returns across the far northeastern
portion of the forecast area--generally from Green Lake to Fond
du Lac to Sheboygan Counties. If this materializes, a few
flurries or perhaps patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle will be
possible, but potential seems rather low given the dry air in
place across the region. This potential will be something to watch
over the next day or so.

LONG TERM...Thanksgiving Day through next Tuesday...Moderate to
High Forecast Confidence.

Thanksgiving and Black Friday look very nice, with seasonable
temperatures Thursday giving way to very mild readings on Friday,
when highs look to top out in the mid 50s. Friday will be rather
windy, with south-southwest winds gusting above 30 MPH at times.

Rain will return to the area Friday night as a quick-hitting wave
sweeps across the region. Saturday through early next week is
looking rather quiet, with dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Gusty northwest winds will continue into this evening across the
area. Expect winds to peak this afternoon, with gusts between 25
and 30 KT at times. Winds will gradually decrease this evening,
becoming more westerly by Wednesday.

Flight conditions should remain VFR, with afternoon
stratus/stratocu clearing out by tonight.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into mid to late evening.
Winds are peaking this afternoon with gusts around 30 knots, and
should slowly begin to diminish as the sun sets. Waves will remain
in the 1-4 foot range.

Winds will increase considerably Friday ahead of the next front.
Small craft conditions seem like a good bet, with gales certainly
possible. Winds will remain gusty behind the front Saturday,
before diminishing by early next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Boxell


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