Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141218
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
718 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Dense fog and low stratus has overspread much of srn WI, thus the
Dense Fog Advisory continues until 10 AM CDT. Sly flow and warm
advection will then prevail this afternoon and tonight. There will
likely be enough wind tonight to prevent any meaningful fog
development.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 337 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Dense fog and low stratus has overspread southeast and east
central WI, thus the Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT. Sly flow
and warm advection will then prevail this afternoon and tonight.
There will likely be enough wind tonight to prevent any meaningful
fog development.

LONG TERM...

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Low pressure in the plains will extend an inverted trough
northeast through northern WI. Southerly winds will continue to
pump warm and more humid air into southern WI through Saturday.
Look for winds to increase through the weekend as the pressure
gradient increases with the low approaching. The amplified upper
trough over the western U.S. will draw in some Pacific moisture
which will lead to shower and thunderstorm chances for southern WI
Saturday night through Sunday.

For those making plans this weekend, it does not look like a long
duration of rain. There might be a couple showers or storms that
hit a given location between Saturday night and Sunday afternoon.
The better forcing will be well to our north.

Timing of the cold front Sunday is still uncertain. If it slows
down, Sunday will be warmer than what the forecast is showing
right now.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Cooler temperatures will return by Monday on an easterly breeze,
then rebound back to around 80 by mid week. The GFS brings
another round of showers and storms through southern WI again Mon
nt into Tue. The ECWMF keeps us dry due to a stronger high to our
east. The Canadian model favors a little wetter pattern, similar
to the GFS.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Dense fog will continue over portions of
southeast and east central WI this morning, dissipating by late
morning. Lighter fog is expected over south central WI with the
exception of possible dense fog in the WI River Valley. Very low
Cigs will accompany the fog. VFR conditions are then expected for
the afternoon and tnt. LLWS will be possible after midnight nw of
Madison due to a swly 35 kt LLJ.

MARINE...

Dense fog may form over Lake MI this morning. The
highest probabilities for dense fog of 1 mile or less will be
north of North Point Lighthouse. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
for this area until 10 AM CDT. Otherwise ssely flow will prevail
later today and into the weekend. Waves of 1-3 feet are
anticipated.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ047-051-
     052-057>060-063>066-068>072.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Cronce



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