Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 152017
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
217 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high.

The lake effect snow band that has mainly impacted Sheboygan and
Ozaukee county this afternoon, will gradually pivot to an
east/west orientation and become part of the surface low
convergence axis as it drifts south this evening...reaching
Kenosha by around midnight. Although the southeast has gotten into
a period of subsidence that diminished/ended the snow for a time,
it will pick up again as that band approaches. The trough axis
will stretch west across the forecast area, under a deep cyclonic
flow, so much of southern Wisconsin will stay in the light snow
into the evening. Will keep the advisory going due to the ongoing
snow and slippery secondary/tertiary roads that will likely get
worse with sunset. The surface low and upper trough axis move
south of the area by/after midnight. At that point, we should see
northeast winds bring continued lake effect snow showers to the
lakeshore counties into Tuesday morning. The snow will taper off
inland at that point.

Eventually, winds will turn off shore, taking the showers east by
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday night through Thursday... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will drift through the Plains tomorrow night and
into southeast U.S. on Thursday. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
crossing the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Wed night into
Thu will create a tight surface pressure gradient over southern
WI. We can expect some breezy southwest winds on Thursday. This
will help temperatures rise into the lower 30s.

Friday and Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

An upper trough approaching from the Northern Plains will bring
another period of breezy southwest winds to southern WI on Friday.
Look for temperatures to warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s Fri
& Sat.

Sunday through Monday... Forecast confidence is low.

That upper trough is expected to become amplified as it phases
with the southern stream. This will bring a well-organized surface
low with plenty of moisture through the Midwest early next week.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with the low track this far
out. The ECMWF and Canadian models have the low tracking through
southern WI which gets us into the warm sector (rain, storms
possible), while the GFS tracks it through central IL which keeps
us in the snow and cold. High temperatures on Sunday could be
anywhere from 30 degrees to 55 degrees. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Look for ceilings and visibilities to generally remain in the
1500-2500 feet/1-3SM range through the evening under periods of
light snow.

The heavy lake effect snowband is the main concern for this
afternoon/evening. It is currently over southern Sheboygan county
and will take on a more west to east orientation through late
afternoon, pivoting over the Sheboygan/Ozaukee county line.
Expect very low visibility within this band, along with snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour directly under the band. This band
will start to slide south late this afternoon and then accelerate
through this evening. Areas outside of Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties
are expected to have a much lower impact from this snow band
since it should be a shorter duration. Look for increasing
northerly winds behind the band.

Winds are shifting to the west/northwest over south central and
far southeast WI. They are north to northeast toward east central
WI. The area in between features variable winds and very light
snow or a break in the snow.

&&

.MARINE...

The small craft advisory will continue north of Port Washington
until 6 pm this evening. Then we have a lull in winds and waves
tonight. But, increasing northeast winds will bring large waves
for a time on Tuesday with small craft advisory conditions likely
being met during the day. We`ll address that after the current one
expires.

A tight pressure gradient develops over Lake Michigan Wednesday
with low pressure over Canada and strong high pressure to the
south. The resultant south to southwest winds will likely reach
small craft advisory conditions Wed through Thu.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ059-065-
     066-071-072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ046-
     047-051-056>058-062>064-067>070.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ052-060.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643.

&&

$$

Tonight/Tuesday and Marine...Davis
Aviation and Tuesday Night through Monday...Cronce



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