Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210831
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
331 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

Visibility will improve in the wake of an occluded front that is
tracking east through southeast WI early this morning. The front
should clear the lakeshore near Milwaukee around 6 am and near
Sheboygan around 8 am. It could take another couple of hours for
the fog to completely clear, but expect improvement with the drier
southwest winds.

Along the front, there is a chance of showers and a slight chance
of a thunderstorm. There have been a few rumbles of thunder along
the front overnight and also a little small hail in the stronger
cells.

Expect gusty westerly winds across southern WI this afternoon as
low pressure tracks through northern WI and into the U.P. of
Michigan. Skies may clear for a period of time this morning, but
expect clouds to fill in once again for the afternoon. Can`t rule
out a few sprinkles, but forecast soundings show too shallow of
moisture for showers today.

.LONG TERM...

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

A push of milder temps back into the area will likely kick off a
round of showers and storms on Monday, beginning in the afternoon
hours. Low pressure passing through the region is then expected
to bring continued showers Monday night and Tuesday. Kept some low
pops on Wednesday, as low pressure will be slow to pull away from
the area.

After milder temps back near normal for Monday, cooler temps are
likely to return for Tue/Wed.

Thursday through Saturday....Forecast confidence is medium to
high:

High pressure is progged to persist into late week, which would
suggest mainly dry weather for Thursday and Friday. A shortwave
may bring some showers by later Friday into Friday night. A chance
for showers and storms is then expected Saturday as the first wave
departs and another approaches.

Temps are expected to rebound back to around normal to end the
work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Dense fog will persist until the passage of the occluded front
from west to east early this morning. The front is expected to
clear Lake Michigan near Milwaukee around 6 am, but fog could
linger up to two hours later before clearing. There could be some
small hail in any thunderstorms along the occluded front early
this morning.

There should be a period of VFR with possible clear skies later
this morning, but clouds will fill back in during the afternoon.
Plan on gusty westerly winds across southern WI this afternoon,
along with MVFR ceilings in the 2000 to 3000 ft range. Ceilings
near Lake Michigan could remain VFR this afternoon due to deeper
mixing.

&&

.MARINE...

A marine dense fog advisory is in effect for the overnight hours.
Expect fog to dissipate as winds turn southwest and drier air
moves in behind a front between 6 and 8 am this morning. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms with small hail along this
front.

Gusty westerly winds are expected this afternoon. Wind gusts in
the 20 to 25 knot range warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Similar
conditions are anticipated for Monday as well.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047-
     051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Monday through Saturday...DDV


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