Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
344 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

850-700 mb warm advection has led to isolated to scattered
showers and tstorms over wrn WI. Given trends, isold showers will
affect south central WI early this morning. Fcst soundings do
suggest less saturation and instability aloft for later this
morning, thus went with a dry forecast for later in the morning
and into the afternoon. Another warm day is expected with a Lake
MI lake breeze expected. Sly winds will continue tnt making for
mild low temps.


Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Breezy southerly winds will continue to pump warm and more humid
air into southern WI through Saturday. This is due to a tight
pressure gradient with approaching low pressure. The surface low
will lift toward Lake Superior on Saturday. Despite increasing low
level moisture, the upper levels will remain dry through the day.

Thunderstorms expected along the surface trough/cold front in
eastern MN should be dissipating as they get into central/eastern
WI Saturday night.

The surface front with a wind shift to the northwest/north will
make it through southern WI by Sunday afternoon and stall over
northern IL Sunday night.

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Surface high pressure over northern WI will help to push cooler
air down Lake Michigan and bring cooler temperatures to southern
WI for Monday.

A mid level disturbance is expected to bring showers and some
thunderstorms to the Midwest including southern WI Monday night
into Tuesday. Overall forcing and moisture appear limited.
Southeasterly winds will help to rebound temps back to around 80
by mid week.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible Tue night
through Wednesday on the leading edge of a sprawling upper trough
that will be developing over the northwest portion of the
country. The GFS and Canadian models to be more robust with
precip chances for southern WI than the ECMWF.


.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Patchy ground fog in ern WI through
sunrise, otherwise sct mid to high clouds today with isold showers
mainly west and north of Madison through sunrise. VFR conditions
will continue into this aft-tnt.


.MARINE...Modest ssely flow will produce 2 to 4 foot waves mainly
north of Port Washington from this afternoon through Sat nt.




Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Saturday through Thursday...Cronce is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.