Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 241953
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
253 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A surface trough will move through this evening followed by a 500mb
shortwave that will move across SE WI overnight. An upper level jet
intensifies to the northwest with the right entrance region moving
overhead. Showers look likely late this evening through early
Thursday morning as the shortwave moves through. There is enough
CAPE to maintain the chance for thunder. Most meso models show the
majority of the activity will from Madison and Milwaukee and south.

There may be some fog tonight mainly in the favored low lying areas,
but otherwise the soundings are pretty dry so thinking the drier
northwest flow may mitigate it.

There is little forcing remaining for Thursday morning
except for some upper divergence from the departing upper jet.
Column moisture dries out sharply from the northwest Thursday
morning. Northwest winds will persist through the day with dry
weather by the late morning. Cold air advection behind the front
does not kick in until later so highs will still be around 80.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium
A cooler and drier airmass will be in place across the area. A mid
level wave pushes in from the southwest Friday afternoon although
per Bufkit soundings airmass looks too dry and stable to support
any precip. 925 temps will be in the teens celsius so highs in the
mid 70s expected...pretty close to the MOS values.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
Pattern turns unsettled again as mid level trough lifts northeast
from the Plains. Warm and moist advection sets up Friday night into
Saturday. A southwest 850 jet will aid the advective regime with a
notable bump in the isodrosotherms. While models show some
disagreement on exact placement of upper jet there is evidence
that some right rear quad divergence will aid the vertical motion
field. Looks we could see a couple different rounds of
convection...one with the warmth/moisture surge Friday night into
Saturday morning and then again Saturday afternoon/evening as the
trailing frontal boundary comes across. Again will hinge on how
airmass recovers from the first round. The 00z ECMWF was a slower
solution suggesting precip potential could linger longer into
Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile the 12z GFS and GEM show a
dry Sunday with high pressure settling in. The latest ECMWF has
come in and has converged towards the quicker timing of the
front/precip Saturday night into Sunday lending some confidence to
a dry Sunday.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium
Overall looking like a quiet period as high pressure hangs out
across the western Great Lakes region. The GFS and to a lesser
extent the GEM, shows a quick return of moisture late Tuesday night
into Wednesday but this is running into the persistent low level
ridging so some doubt with this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
late tonight through Thursday morning, mainly for MSN and MKE and
south. Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the evening but
reduced cigs and vsbys can be expected within thunderstorms. There
may be a period of MVFR fog overnight due to light winds and lingering
moisture but drier northwest flow may mitigate it.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will be weaker and out of the west late this evening
after a cold front moves through the region. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly for Milwaukee and
south.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/Thursday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Marquardt
Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday...Collar



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