Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 202112
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Low pressure currently developing over the southern plains will
gradually push northeast, resulting in weak WAA across southern
WI through tonight and Sunday. The gentle southerly flow will
help advect the stratus deck currently over southern IA and
central IL into the area, reaching southern WI sometime around
midnight. The WAA, coupled with overcast skies for a portion of
the night, will help buoy temperatures tonight, especially in the
south where clouds will arrive first. I don`t this our southern
counties will fall below freezing, but the freezing line will
likely set up somewhere across the CWA. With this backdrop, there
are 2 primary concerns with this forecast. i

The first concern is for the potential for fog or freezing fog.
Increasing low level moisture and very weak surface winds will
likely result in some fog across the area. Questions remain with
regards to how bad the fog will get, but may meso models are
showing overnight visibilities less than 1SM across much of the
area, and the SREF is showing probabilities in excess of 80% for
visibilites to fall below 1SM. Therefore, at least patchy fog
seems likely, and the potential for more widespread or dense fog
is indeed on the table. Obviously, if fog develops in an area with
temps below freezing, freezing fog is possible.

The second concern is for the potential for some freezing
rain/drizzle. Eventually, the low level WAA and moisture will
become sufficient for precipitation, with most guidance pushing
the precip into far southern WI sometime around sunrise. As the
precip arrives in the morning, there may be a narrow window in
which temperatures will be cool enough to allow precipitation to
freeze on some surfaces. However, uncertainty remains as to when
exactly the precip will arrive. Moreover, if precip arrives early
enough to support freezing rain/drizzle, it will be very light and
only last for an hour or two at a given location.

Precip will gradually push north and increase in coverage through
the day Sunday. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the upper
30s, resulting in a dreary January day.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence medium.

The areas of fog and drizzle on Sun will continue into Sun eve.
More organized pcpn will then arrive late Sun nt as the deepening
low pressure area moves into srn IA/nrn MO, and the diffluent and
divergent upper low begins to affect srn WI. Low to mid level
warm advection and frontogenesis will also increase during this
time. Rain is mostly expected but sfc temps and road temps will
likely be near freezing toward central WI thus some light ice
accum could occur.

A mid and upper level dry slot will then move into the area for a
period of time in the afternoon with the occluded low to then
track across se WI from late afternoon into the evening. A low
level TROWAL and sfc trough will hang back from the center of the
low bringing more pcpn with rain changing to snow. 1 to 3 inches
of snow accum is forecast Mon nt. Nnwly winds and cold advection
will increase late Mon nt and continue into Tue.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence
medium.

A progressive, yet meridional pattern will continue for this
period. A couple shortwave troughs within nw flow aloft will
reinforce polar air for Tue nt-Wed. Upper ridging will then
develop for Thu-Fri as a longwave trough moves from the wrn USA
into the Great Plains. The longwave trough and a cold front will
then bring chances of rain/snow for Sat. Above normal temps will
return with the approach of the longwave trough for Thu-Sat.


&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Confidence remains high that a low stratus deck currently over
southern IA and central IL will push into WI overnight. We will
likely see a dramatic drop from VFR and IFR/LIFR within a few
hours, but given some uncertainty on the exact timing, I didn`t
feel comfortable putting that tight of a drop in the TAFs quite
yet. Most high res guidance also showing visibilities tanking as
this stratus deck moves in.

Beyond the very low cigs and vsbys, some concern remains for very
light freezing drizzle or freezing fog Sunday morning. However,
temps will be very close to freezing in southern Wisconsin, and
may not actually make it to the freezing mark at the TAF sites.
Given just how close I expect temps to be to freezing, and the
fact that the best precip chances don`t move into the area until
the afternoon, so I`ve got pretty low confidence that fog will
freeze or that freezing precip will materialize at the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Mon-Tue. Brisk
ely winds on Mon will turn sly with building waves. The passage of
low pressure and a cold front will then turn the winds to brisk
nnwly Mon nt into Tue. Waves will build once again with the nly
fetch across Lake MI.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...BSH
Sunday Night through Saturday...Gehring


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