584
FNUS73 KMPX 111251
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Hagstrom...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
751 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Hagstrom Rx burn expect to see mostly clear skies and
humidity near 40 percent at ignition time falling to the mid 20s
percent this afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid 70s. Surface
level winds will be primarily out of the west at 5-10mph today,
perhaps a bit more southwesterly at ignition time with limited
gusting today peaking at around 20mph during the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................41 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 6 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /93000 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (116300 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  65  68  71  74  75  76  77  77  76  73  68
RH..............41  35  32  28  26  25  25  24  25  27  31  39
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   8   9   10  12  13  14  14  13  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.10  12  14  16  17  18  18  18  17  16  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.4 3.9 5.9 6.6 7.3 7.7 7.9 7.7 2.0 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   S
Transp wind spd.8   10  13  15  16  18  20  21  20  16  13  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (130400 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
                    (28400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (5200 knot-ft) late in the night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 13
                    to 16 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........Max 78.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 10 to 16 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (98400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (92100
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph shifting to the north 14 to
                    20 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dunleavy
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413766.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov