Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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733
FNUS73 KMPX 211322
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Spot Forecast for Wildlife Festival...US Fish and Wildlife Service
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
822 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on September 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Temperature and humidity values will increase through Friday ahead
of the next approaching system. An isolated afternoon shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today, and then showers and thunderstorms
become likely after midnight. Near record temperatures and dry weather
are expected for Friday, and then shower and thunderstorm chances
return over the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Temperature.........65 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 6 to 11
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1500-3400
                    ft AGL increasing to 2800-3900 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Mixing winds........Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /23500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /63600 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    good to excellent (57500-76500 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............65  70  73  76  78  79  80  80  78
RH..............58  51  48  42  42  44  47  51  60
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   9   11  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.4 2.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  20  18  18  20  21  23  23  24
Mixing wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixing wind spd.18  20  18  18  20  21  23  23  24
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100024  28  33  38  51  64  77  67  58

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy then
                    becoming partly cloudy. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely after
                    midnight. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. Chance of precipitation
                    60 percent.
Temperature.........Min 69.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............76     73     72     73     72     71
RH..............69     81     90     90     93     97
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   SE 6   S 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning. Chance of showers 20
                    percent.
Temperature.........Max 90.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-2600 ft AGL increasing to 1700-3600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph increasing to 28 to 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........South 18 to 26 mph increasing to 28 to 29 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to excellent (11400-61100 knot-ft)
                    increasing to good to excellent (40700-88400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to or high.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............70     74     81     87     90     89
RH..............100    90     72     59     56     57
20 ft wind......SE 6   S 6    S 8    S 10   S 12   S 11
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1300   2100   3100   3400   2600
Transport wind..S 18   S 20   S 22   S 23   S 26   S 29
Mixing wind.....S 18   S 20   S 22   S 23   S 26   S 29
Haines index....5      6      6      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100011     23     39     61     79     65

$$
Forecaster...SCHMIT
Requested by...Robert Bengson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1716099.0/MPX
.EMAIL robert_bengson@fws.gov



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