Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 290424
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1024 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The next round of rain is moving into northeast Wisconsin as of
mid afternoon. Mild temperatures were noted with readings mainly
in the lower to middle 40s. Rain will continue through much of the
evening ahead of an occluded front that was located in Iowa this
afternoon. The occluded front is expected to sweep across the
area late this evening and overnight, bringing an end to the rain
and fog for most. Some lingering rain showers may continue across
the far north on Tuesday.

Clouds will be on the decrease late tonight/early Tuesday morning
across central and east-central Wisconsin. Skies should remain
mostly cloudy across the north. Another mild afternoon is expected
with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s north to the lower 50s
across the Fox Valley east to Kewaunee and Manitowoc.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Slightly cooler weather, minor precipitation chances through the
rest of the work week, and potential for a more significant storm
early next week, will be the main forecast concerns.

The upper low is expected to linger around Minnesota Tuesday
night, then weaken and shift east Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Models have trended farther east with a weak secondary low
pressure system that develops in the LFQ of a powerful (150 kt)
upper level jet, and barely grazes our Lakeshore counties with
light QPF.

Surface/upper level troughing will linger across the region
through the rest of the work week, with spotty mixed rain/snow
showers. Temperatures will gradually cool off as northwest winds
bring Canadian air into the region. Precipitation amounts will be
light in most areas. There could be a period of lake-enhancement
over Vilas county late Wednesday night into Thursday night, but
instability is marginal and some models show low-level winds with
too much of a westerly component at times. Just kept mid-range
pops for Vilas county for now, but still think there is potential
for an inch or two of accumulation there.

Upper level ridging and a surface high will bring dry but cool
weather for the beginning of the next weekend, with some sunshine
expected on Saturday.

Models exhibit significant differences at the end of the extended
period. The ECMWF deepens a high amplitude trof east of the
Rockies over the weekend, then lifts an upper low and deepening
surface low toward the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. The
track of the surface low is farther east than the previous run,
but would still support several inches of snow in eastern WI. The
GFS develops split flow, with an upper low dropping through the SW
United States into northern Mexico, more of a zonal flow impacting
the northern tier of states, and a fast moving short-wave crossing
WI on Sunday. Too early to say which pattern is more likely at
this time, so have not strayed from the preferred model blend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1024 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

LIFR/IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys expected most of
tonight as a band of rain passes over the state. Conditions
expected to begin to improve shortly late tonight into Tuesday
morning after a surface front passes through, winds shift to the
southwest and the precipitation diminishes. The southwest winds
will allow a mild and drier air mass to pour into the area for
Tuesday. Surface winds will gradually subside tonight after the
frontal passage.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......TDH


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