Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 181707
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AREA NORTH OF LAKE HURON TODAY. STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND 1035MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND BRING IN MUCH
COLDER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS TODAY MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE AIR IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WHILE THE GROUND HAS WARMED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASS IN VILAS COUNTY TONIGHT.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
AS IT IS MARGINAL.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES LESS THAN USUAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND ADDED
HARD FREEZE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DEFERRED
ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH SINCE IT IS PRETTY FAR OUT. THE COLD HAS
ALREADY BEEN ADVERTISED FOR A FEW DAYS ALREADY. ON WEDNESDAY...
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST ECMWF DEPICTED A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. LOOKING
AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL LEAVE THURSDAY DRY FOR THE MOMENT. DID LOWER
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST
ECMWF MODEL THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH FOR THE LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE
MODELS TO CHANGE THEIR TUNE...THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMP FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS...DRIZZLE...AND A SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY. BROKEN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND LOOK TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






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