Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 150449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1049 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Sunshine and warm advection allowed temperatures to
rise into the 40s over all of the forecast area this afternoon. A
few 50 degree readings were also reported. It was warm enough for
a lake breeze to form near Lake Michigan and move several miles

Skies will start clear this evening but increasing low level
moisture may produce low clouds later tonight through early
Thursday, especially across the higher terrain in central and
northcentral Wisconsin, and perhaps near the lake. Lows tonight
will be at least 15 degrees above normal.

Thursday will remain mild, though not as much as today. A cold
front will arrive in the north in the afternoon, where it could
bring some light snow or flurries. Highs will be around 10 degrees
above normal in most places.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Friday looks to be the coldest day of the forecast period, but a
general warming trend is expected into early next week, then it
cools off a bit toward the middle of the week. There are also
several chances for precipitation as the flow aloft becomes more
zonal and then southwest.

Snow chances taper off Thursday night and end by 12Z Friday.
Friday looks dry with surface high pressure in the region and a
barely detectable mid level ridge moving into Wisconsin. There is
a chance for snow again on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front and mid level short wave.

Another frontal boundary, more parallel to the upper flow, will
slowly pass through the state and bring snow chances from Sunday
afternoon through at least Monday evening. The 12Z models were
showing differences in precipitation timing this far into the
forecast, but the blend showed snow chances across the area
Tuesday afternoon. Snow chances late Tuesday night and Wednesday
should be confined to favored areas for lake effect snow showers
in the cold cyclonic flow behind a departing surface low.

Highs should be near normal by Saturday and a little above normal
Sunday and Monday as upper flow becomes southwest. Colder
temperatures are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday due to more
northerly surface flow.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1049 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

A deck of IFR clouds has developed across the southeastern TAF
sites this evening. Further west there are no signs of the MVFR
deck that was expected, however MOS still indicates it will form
once the high clouds clear out. At this time confidence in this
deck forming is not high, therefore will push off the development
of the deck but still include it with this set of TAFs.
Local VWP products show low level wind shear has developed with
southwest winds around 35 knots at 1000 ft and should dissipate
Thursday morning. How quickly low clouds clear out is the
question for Thursday as models indicate they should clear out
Thursday morning across the east, but may hang on across the west
and north through the afternoon. Will stick with a pessimistic
forecast with this issuance, however confidence in the cloud
portion of this forecast is fairly low at this time.



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