Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 170357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1057 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front brought much
warmer than normal temperatures and 60s dew points into the
forecast area. The cold front and a mid level short wave will
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight into Sunday
morning. Precipitation should exit central and north central
Wisconsin early Sunday morning before pushing east of the state by
midday. Clouds and rain are expected to result in much above
normal low temperatures tonight. Cooler temperatures are in store
for Sunday in the wake of the front, but they should still be
above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Temperatures will briefly cool down early in the work week behind
a departing cold front. High pressure over the Great Lakes will
initially keep the weather dry, however rain chances will increase
Monday into Monday night as a shortwave tracks through the western
Great Lakes region.

Temperatures will rise behind this shortwave due to mid level
ridging and height rises Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday highs
will once again be well into the 70s, with a few 80 degree
readings possible. There will also be chances for additional
showers and thunderstorms as instability increases with several
weak shortwaves embedded in the flow.

By the end of the week and into early next weekend summer-like
weather will return to the area as highs are expected to get to
around 80 degrees across most of the area Friday and next
Saturday. However the overall pattern is a bit difficult to sort
out as an upper level low over southern Canada and the northern
Plains is being sorted out by the different long-range models. At
this point will stick with the superblend as the timing of a
surface cold front tracking through the western Great Lakes is
still up in the air.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A cold front will gradually move across the forecast area overnight
and exit the state by noon on Sunday. Showers will become more
numerous after midnight with scattered thunderstorms also
possible especially over central and northcentral Wisconsin. The
best chance for shower activity will be between about 08 UTC and
12 UTC Sunday. VFR conditions will gradually give way to areas of
MVFR cigs toward daybreak as the front and shower activity approach.
MVFR cigs may linger behind the front during the morning as cooler
air pushes in. VFR conditions should return by midday with decreasing

Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM CDT this evening for WIZ022-


LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......ESB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.