Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 232027
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED
WITH MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND A LOW IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THEIR
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IS ALSO A CHALLENGE.

SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS SAW A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SUNSHINE BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVED IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER CYCLONE IN ONTARIO. WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...BUT MODELS ALL FORECAST PLENTY OF
MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 5000FT SO A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
MONDAY. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR A BIT BELOW 12Z NAM/GFS
MOS FORECAST IN NORTHERN WI AND A LITTLE MORE BELOW MOS FOR MONDAY
IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER THINS OUT FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND HAVE
HIGHS NEAR MOS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

A STACKED UPPER LOW SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT TUESDAY NIGHT. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT RH PROGS SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY LIKELY
SLOWLY DEPART FORM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLOWLY MODIFYING
TEMPERATURES.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP WITH A SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEK. PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPLITTING THE ENERGY INTO A
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN FLOW BUT TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO
DIFFERS AT THIS TIME TO ADD ANY RESOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

CHALLENGING TAFS TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITED THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THERE WAS A NARROW GAP BETWEEN THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND THE CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. THERE WERE
SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS...MOSTLY MVFR...IN THE WRAP-AROUND. THERE
WERE ALSO SOME IFR CIGS ALONG WITH IFR VSBYS IN FOG. SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AT LEAST NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD SO HAVE MAINLY 2500-5000FT
CIGS GOING THROUGHOUT WITH SOME SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG


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