Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 272033
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
233 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Low clouds and patchy fog lingered across much of the area this
afternoon. Temperatures were in the middle or upper 30s north and
west of the Fox Valley, and in the lower to middle 40s from the
Fox Valley and lakeshore region. Main concern tonight will be rain
and the fog.

Regional radars continue to show rain spreading northward across
Iowa and Missouri this afternoon. This rain will continue to
spread northeast into central Wisconsin shortly after 6 pm, and
then across much of north-central and northeast Wisconsin by mid
to late evening. Increasing southeast winds will usher in warmer
air, thus temperatures should remain steady or slowly rise. The
mild and moist air should cause fog to form again. Not expecting
the fog to be as dense as light night due to the rain, but areas
that still have a snowpack could see locally dense fog again.
Rain will continue through much of the night, but should taper
off some across the south.

Light rain or drizzle will continue off and on during the day
Monday. Rain is expected to become likely again during the
afternoon hours. It will be mild with highs in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Precipitation trends with a strong low pressure system on Monday
night, mild weather on Tuesday, minor precipitation chances
through the rest of the work week, and dry weather for the start
of next weekend, will be the main forecast concerns.

A second significant band of rain will develop as an occluded
front, short-wave trof and upper jet streak moves through the
region on Monday night. The rain will will taper off from
southwest to northeast during the late evening and overnight
hours. Lingering showers can be expected over northern WI on
Tuesday morning until the short-wave trof lifts north of the
region. 1000-850 mb thicknesses and low-level wet bulb
temperatures support all rain through Tuesday. With dry slotting
bringing some sunshine to the southeast half of the forecast
area, and 925 mb temperatures warming to +4 to +7, opted to
raise temperatures into the lower 50s in parts of central and
east central WI on Tuesday.

The upper low is expected to linger around Minnesota Tuesday
night, then weaken and shift east Wednesday into Wednesday
night. One interesting feature is a weak secondary low pressure
system that several models develop and drift north across Lake
Michigan late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system is
associated with the LFQ of a powerful (150 kt) upper level jet,
and development may also be aided by the relatively warm Lake
Michigan water temperatures. This system may brush the Lakeshore
region with some light showers.

Upper troughing will linger across the region through the rest of
the work week, with spotty mixed rain/snow showers. Precipitation
amounts will be light in most areas. There could be a period of
lake-enhancement over Vilas county late Wednesday night into
Thursday night, so pops were raised slightly there. Will need to
watch this set-up, as there could be some minor snow accumulations
in Vilas county.

Upper level ridging and a surface high will bring dry but cool
weather for the beginning of the next weekend, with some sunshine
expected on Saturday. An upper trof could bring some precipitation
on Sunday.

Temperatures will start off well above normal, then trend closer
to normal by next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

As typical of this time of year, the fog was stubborn this morning
across much of central, north-central and far northeast Wisconsin.
As of 16z...visibilities down to near zero were reported at KCLI,
KPCZ, KY50. Do not see the fog eroding until early to mid
afternoon. Otherwise, poor flying conditions expected into
Tuesday due to rain, wind or low clouds. Rain should arrive into
central Wisconsin by 00z tonight, then across much of the area by
mid to late evening. Rain or drizzle will continue into Monday
night.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Eckberg



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