Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 290812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG


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