Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 271727
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER NEXT WEEK.

THE FLOW ENTERING NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A SRN STREAM TROF ALONG THE
WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER NRN STREAM TROF WAS PROGRESSING
ACRS THE GULF OF AK. EXPANSIVE RIDGING DOMINATED CENTRAL AND ERN
NOAM....SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS CANADA.

THE WEST COAST TROF WL EDGE A BIT FARTHER E THEN BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF
AND STALL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
START HEADING EAST AGAIN AS THE GULF OF AK TROF DIGS SE AND
PHASES WITH IT. THE RE-ENERGIZED UPR TROF SHOULD REACH CENTRAL
NOAM BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT/S STARTING TO LOOK
LIKE THIS IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARD A WRN NOAM UPR RIDGE/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF UPR FLOW CONFIGURATION.

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE THE UPR RIDGE
DOMINATES THE FCST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE TEND AFTER
THAT WL BE FOR TEMPS TO HEAD BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...
THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THAT
WILL HAPPEN. SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO RETURN AS THE
UPR TROF NEARS THE AREA LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SECOND VERSE...SAME AS THE FIRST.

LITTLE CHG IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS BROAD
UPR RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. SOME WK UPR SHRTWVS/UPR LOWS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND WL BRING PATCHES OF MIDDLE/HIGH
CLDS ACRS THE AREA FM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WL
APPROACH MID-SUMMER NORMALS AT MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH ELY FLOW WL
KEEP THE LAKESHORE COOLER. /OF COURSE...THATS NORMAL FOR
SUMMER...TOO./ NEAR IDEAL RADITATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WL CONT
TO ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUITE A BIT...SO LOWS WL BE
CLOSER TO /BUT STILL ABV/ NORMAL. DESPITE THE FAIRLY DRY AIR
MASS...THE LARGE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS COMBINED WITH A
LITTLE ADDED MOISTURE FM THE SE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WL PROABALY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AGAIN TNGT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  HPC
RECOMMENDS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE
GEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THIS MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL WORK FOR THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM
THOUGH...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE GOOD MID-LEVEL FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. STILL
THOUGH...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH
BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL TRY TO ADD TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH TO 70S
SOUTH. THINK MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE EXITED OR DIMINISHED BY
THE START OF MONDAY EVENING...BUT COULD STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
HANGING AROUND OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING
TAKE PLACE AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEN SHOULD SEE A LEADING EDGE OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER
HEIGHT FALLS TAKING PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF OVER THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

BROAD UPR RDG CONTS TO BRING PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER TO THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. A CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY...THUS NO PCPN IN THE FCST UNTIL MON. LOOK FOR
PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF NE WI TNGT AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NIL WINDS BRING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE FOG
WL LIMIT VSBYS TO MVFR...HOWEVER THE RHI AND MTW TAF SITES COULD
SEE VSBYS APPROACH LIFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK





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