Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 270004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
704 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

ONLY PCPN PRODUCING FEATURE IN THE AREA IS A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS NOTED UNDER
THIS FEATURE...AND PROGS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEST OF THE AREA IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA TO CONTINUE THE SUNNY
MILD DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THE PERSISTENCE ISSUES MAINLY LOCAL MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE
VARIATIONS AND FOG. PRIMARY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO LOWLAND RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS AND ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A SHORT WAVE BRUSHING
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS JUST ONSHORE OF
WESTERN CANADA AND WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. SO
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL LINGER FOR A FEW RUNS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING. A SURFACE FRONT ALSO IS PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE PRIMARY REGION OF PCPN APPEARS TO
BE POST FRONTAL. WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT...SYSTEM DEPARTS FASTER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY REBUILDS TUESDAY WHILE A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER LOWERING
TEMPS FOR MONDAY FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CAA
PATTERN BEHIND THE FROPA. COOLER BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN CHANGES STARTING MID WEEK WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST. GFS PROGS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREADING THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. A SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LIKELY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TSRA MENTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
SIMILAR BUT MUCH SLOWER. NEVERTHELESS PRECIP CHANCES TO BE ON THE
INCREASE STARTING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG LATER
TONIGHT TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.