Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260802
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND GREAT PLAINS AREA.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHENS A
LITTLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION REMAINS VERY WEAK.

THE 700 MB RH IS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.  THE
NAM AND GFS TRY TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
IF THIS OCCURS TEMPERATURES WOULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S. WINDS WOULD
NOT DECOUPLE COMPLETELY SO WILL NOT MENTION FROST.

OTHERWISE THE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THE COOL TEMPERATURES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COOLER PATTERN FOR MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY COOL NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE RAIN WILL
STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHOULD
SEE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN
ON THURSDAY. BULK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL DOWN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMILAR TO THE WED/THU SYSTEM...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEKEND. THE LOW LOOKS STRONGER AND IS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THOUGH...SO COULD BE MORE RAINFALL WITH THIS ONE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY IFR.
AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLY PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY ERODE THE STRATUS FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL RESULT IN WAVES REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV



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