Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 042147
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
247 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS WE SLOWLY WARM UP
AND TRANSITION TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE SOME
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME WEAK SHALLOW ENERGY
ALOFT PASSING BY...BUT NOTHING NEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION AS LOWER LEVELS DRY OUT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WIND AT THE USUAL GAP LOCATIONS
/LIVINGSTON AND NYE/ AS SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. I HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO JUST UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL IN THESE LOCATIONS STARTING NEAR 12Z THURSDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH LOCAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT BEING THE MAIN
TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS
AS WE COULD POSSIBLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT PROGGS HAVE ME ON THE FENCE AND
WOULD RATHER FUTURE SHIFTS SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS RATHER
THAN HANDCUFF THEM WITH WEAK HIGHLIGHTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR WEEKEND WITH A WEAK TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND
ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO BACK DOOR INTO THE EASTERN ZONES
BY SATURDAY. GFS PAINTS SOME LOW VALUES OF QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH DROPS SOUTH ONTO THE NORTH FACING
HIGHER TERRAIN BY EVENING. ECMWF KEEPS US DRY BUT DOES HAVE SIMILAR
WEAK QVECTOR FORCING. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER JUST
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR NOW...ANYTHING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PROBABLY
WOULD NOT MEASURE. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AT THAT POINT THE EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS GETS VERY UNSETTLED WITH STRONG TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
KEEPS DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. NO MODEL CONSISTENCY
AFTER MIDWEEK EITHER. THIS STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES ME THINK /BASED ON EXPERIENCE/ MODELS MAY
EVENTUALLY RESOLVE THINGS INTO AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW. AT ANY
RATE...WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY GIVE WAY TO UNSETTLED WEATHER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN HOW THINGS PAN OUT AFTER DAY 6. BT


&&

.AVIATION...

ANY CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH LOCALIZED AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT LIKELY AT
KLVM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 015/046 029/053 029/053 030/056 035/062 036/060 031/047
    00/N    00/N    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    22/W
LVM 018/046 029/052 032/053 031/055 035/059 037/058 036/049
    00/N    00/N    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N    22/W
HDN 010/047 025/054 027/054 028/057 031/063 032/063 029/050
    00/B    00/E    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    02/W
MLS 008/046 027/053 027/051 028/055 032/060 033/058 029/046
    00/B    00/E    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/B
4BQ 003/042 021/048 023/049 026/053 029/060 030/060 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/B
BHK 001/043 022/050 025/048 025/052 030/057 029/056 027/045
    00/B    00/E    21/B    10/U    00/U    00/N    00/B
SHR 006/043 022/049 024/049 025/052 028/060 030/059 028/048
    00/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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