Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 220933
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
333 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Vigorous weather system that moved through the region yesterday
will generally be situated east of us today. In its wake is a
cooler and somewhat drier air mass. However, we remain under a
broad cyclonic flow aloft with a large pool of cooler air at
500mb. This will create an unstable atmosphere as we warm up with
moderate lapse rates the result. There are still some weak
pockets of energy revolving through the flow so this combined
with relatively steep lapse rates should produce a few showers
and thunderstorms across the CWA. Models suggest most of this will
initiate off the mountains in the afternoon, but a pocket of
convection is also hinted at in the southeast corner due to some
vorticity rotating through the southern branch of the broadscale
trough.

The afternoons convection should generally die off with the
setting sun, but expect another round of the same for Monday as we
remain under the influence of the upper low to our north. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Models agree on the overall pattern of upper troughiness and lack
of strong ridging through next weekend. This pattern is favorable
for numerous disturbances/shortwaves to move across the region,
triggering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each
day. No organized, synoptic-scale precipitation systems look to
affect the region until perhaps next Saturday, when the 00z ECMWF
brings a vigorous upper low close to the western and central CWA.

Temperatures should be near seasonal normals throughout the
period.  RMS/BT
&&

.AVIATION...


Rain showers are occurring this morning near KMLS to near KSHR and
near and south of KBHK. These showers should move northeastward
before dissipating around 12z. Low clouds with MVFR CIGs could
develop near KMLS and linger through about 12z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms could redevelop especially over southeastern MT
and near/south of KLVM after about 17z. Mountains will be obscured
in showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be gusty near KLVM after
18z. Otherwise...VFR will prevail today and tonight. RMS/BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 044/067 044/066 045/069 047/069 048/070 049/071
    2/T 13/T    23/T    33/T    32/T    34/T    43/T
LVM 059 039/060 038/060 040/065 040/065 041/065 041/067
    3/T 24/T    24/T    43/T    35/T    54/T    43/T
HDN 070 042/071 042/069 047/071 048/071 049/072 049/074
    2/T 12/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 071 046/072 047/071 050/072 050/073 050/072 051/075
    2/T 12/T    12/T    33/T    33/T    23/T    32/T
4BQ 070 042/071 042/070 047/070 046/070 048/070 048/073
    3/T 12/T    12/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 071 042/071 042/070 048/069 047/070 047/069 048/072
    2/T 22/T    12/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 066 039/067 039/065 043/065 042/066 044/066 045/069
    2/T 11/B    13/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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