Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281021
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
321 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TURNED EAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS REMAINED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRAGGING THE PRECIP
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE
AREA...AND THUS HAS WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE
UPPER END OF THE GEFS SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE SPREAD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN FOR
TODAY...BUT REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE GEFS MEAN.

AS THE LOW MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE WIND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG FOR LONG...WITH WINDS BACK DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID
EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. WITH THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER FOR THURSDAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

WINTER IS GOING TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW COLD ITS GOING TO GET AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL. CONSISTENCY WITH THE FORECAST IS IMPROVED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...BUT THE LATER EXTENDED IS STILL
MESSY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION.

DOWNSLOPE PRE-FRONTAL FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. AS WITH ANY ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOME
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FOOTHILLS. COLD AIR LINGERS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND KEPT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN MESSY AS MODELS HAVE
CAUGHT ONTO THE PRESENCE OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA
BUT HAVE YET TO FIGURE OUT WHERE ITS GOING TO GO. ONE RUN IT DROPS
STRAIGHT INTO MONTANA THE NEXT ITS HEADED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHERE THIS COLD POOL SETTLES IS A
STRONG PACIFIC JET AND WEST COAST RIDGE STRENGTH. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC HAVE AT TIMES KEPT THE RIDGE STRONG DEFLECTING PACIFIC JET
NORTH AND ALLOWING THE COLD POOL TO PLUNGE INTO MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS...BUT BOTH HAVE ALSO SHOWN THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WARMING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR WELL EAST OF THE
REGION. THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
IS GOING TO GET VERY COLD NEXT WEEK BUT STILL TRYING TO SORT OUT
WHERE AND WHEN. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW 5 TO 7
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH IN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HUGE GUIDANCE SPREAD WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

TWO DISTURBANCES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH MID
DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID DAY OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS...INCLUDING KLVM...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE
DAY. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
GUST 30 TO 40KTS AT TIMES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 029/046 030/046 026/035 017/026 014/036 024/039
    1/E 00/U    00/U    15/S    43/S    33/S    32/S
LVM 049 027/047 028/045 022/039 015/030 018/036 021/037
    3/W 00/U    00/U    16/S    34/S    54/S    32/S
HDN 046 025/045 025/045 024/034 014/026 012/034 020/036
    1/E 00/U    00/U    14/S    43/S    33/S    33/S
MLS 045 025/044 027/042 024/030 010/021 008/029 016/028
    0/N 00/U    00/U    24/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
4BQ 047 025/046 027/046 024/035 013/024 010/031 017/033
    1/N 00/U    00/U    04/S    33/S    23/S    23/S
BHK 040 025/039 025/042 021/025 007/018 002/024 012/026
    0/N 10/B    00/U    24/S    32/S    22/S    23/S
SHR 047 021/043 021/044 022/036 013/026 011/034 018/038
    4/W 00/U    00/U    15/S    42/S    32/S    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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