Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191520
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
920 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED
EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST FOR THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW FROM
ABOUT TREASURE COUNTY TO FALLON COUNTY SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CLOUD DEVELOP TODAY AS THE SUN WARMS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS. UPDATED FORECAST
HAS BEEN SENT FOR THE ABOVE ADJUSTMENTS. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

RADAR TRENDS WERE REFLECTING THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS IN MOVING
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA WITH JUST A HINT OF SOME
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER SE MT. SO WILL UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS
THIS MORNING. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE FOR A COUPLE
OF REASONS. THE FIRST CHANGE WAS TO RAISE POPS A BIT FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MODELS
PULL THIS SYSTEM INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
THIS FEATURE AND BECAUSE OF SUCH PULL PRECIPITABLE WATERS AS HIGH
AS 1.5 INCHES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF MONTANA...WHICH IS QUITE
HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. JET FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
MINIMAL...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PWAT AVAILABLE...SHOULD NOT BE
TERRIBLY DIFFICULT TO GET SHOWERS TO FORM.

THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDING WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR A
STRONG DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. THIS IS THE SECOND CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE MADE...A CHANGE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THIS STRONG DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. WOULD EXPECT DRY
AIR TO GET PULLED UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BECAUSE OF
THAT...MID 80S ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER
AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TRIES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20KTS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF KBIL. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED. HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 052/074 049/076 053/076 054/080 054/082 054/080
    1/B 00/U    00/U    13/T    31/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 075 043/076 041/076 047/074 049/078 048/080 049/078
    1/N 10/U    00/U    23/T    21/B    11/B    12/T
HDN 080 050/076 045/078 052/078 052/080 052/084 052/082
    1/B 00/U    00/U    13/T    31/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 080 051/075 045/076 052/079 054/078 053/083 053/084
    1/N 00/U    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 081 051/076 046/076 053/079 054/077 052/082 052/084
    1/B 00/U    00/U    12/T    32/T    11/B    11/B
BHK 078 049/073 041/073 047/077 051/073 049/079 050/081
    1/N 00/N    00/U    02/T    22/T    11/U    11/B
SHR 077 048/075 045/077 051/075 049/076 049/080 050/080
    1/B 10/U    00/U    24/T    42/T    10/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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