Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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106
FXUS65 KBYZ 270238
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
838 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to adjust precipitation chances and winds for
current trends. Convection following a disturbance through the
area this evening with the back edge of convective from about
Roundup to Red Lodge. Hi-Res models point to a slow west to east
movement of this back edge through the night and trended forecast
that direction. Latest HRRR ensembles hinting at convective line
over Powder River county maybe seeing some upscale growth over the
next several hours as it moves through Carter county so have
highest pops in that area. Rest of the forecast looks to be in
good shape. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Upper trough across the region today has a short wave impulse
streaking through the base which fired off some thunderstorms this
morning over our south and east. Next round of convection will be
generated by some energy dropping down from Alberta behind the
trough axis. This will combine with instability due to the cool
temps at 500mb to generate isolated to widely scattered showers
and some thunder. Pea size hail/graupel is possible with the
stronger cells...especially in the eastern sections where the
forcing is progged to be a bit stronger. This activity will end by
midnight.

For the weekend...gradual ridging will lead to zonal flow over
the region. This will create drier/warmer conditions with
increased downslope winds and RHs back down to the teens. We will
see 80s to around 90 degree highs Saturday into Sunday. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Southwesterly aloft and ridging will bring warmer and drier
conditions through most of the week. Anticipating highs in the low
to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday. Low-level flow becomes more
southerly bringing in the driest air of the week with humidity
values in the low to mid teens during the afternoon. Vort max
moves northeastward through Idaho on Wednesday. Associated surface
frontal passage will aid thunderstorm development on Wednesday
and Thursday. Deep trough digs in over the Pacific northwest by
Friday. As this deep trough pushes eastward through the weekend
expect an uptick in thunderstorm coverage. Walsh
&&

.AVIATION...

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will gradually decrease from west
to east through the evening and overnight with VFR conditions and
generally light winds prevailing. Gusty winds are possible near
stronger storms. STP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/086 058/088 056/087 058/093 060/092 059/087 058/087
    20/B    00/B    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/W    22/T
LVM 044/085 050/087 048/089 050/092 052/089 051/085 050/083
    10/N    01/B    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 048/087 054/090 054/090 056/095 058/094 058/090 056/089
    20/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/W    22/T
MLS 051/087 057/091 058/090 060/095 063/094 062/092 060/091
    30/U    00/B    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W    22/T
4BQ 050/086 055/091 056/091 059/094 062/094 060/092 060/091
    30/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/T
BHK 049/082 053/090 054/086 057/091 059/091 059/089 057/088
    30/U    00/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/T
SHR 046/085 052/090 052/089 054/093 055/092 056/089 055/088
    20/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/W    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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