Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 291548
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
948 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING THAT IS ROTATING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER...BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
WESTERN AREAS. GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT...THE WARM SUN WILL ALLOW CU
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THESE CLEARING
AREAS. IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AT
TIMES TODAY...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IF ANY OF DURING THE
PAST 6 DAYS. HI RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ANY SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THINGS A BIT UNSTABLE.
THEREFORE...I HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS AROUND BILLINGS EASTWARD TO THE
DAKOTA BORDERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 12
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LOWS WERE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...OVER W MT AND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. THE W MT LOW
WASHES OUT WHILE THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW MOVES ENE TODAY SENDING ONLY
WEAK VORTICITY INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE PROGS SHOWED ONLY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LIMITED QPF CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
ALSO WERE OVERDOING THEIR QPF OVER WY EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS
BACKED OFF POPS TODAY AND CONFINED THEM TO OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WRF AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDER OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...SO ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST. HRRR SHOWED POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION W OF KBIL THIS
MORNING AND THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ON SATELLITE WITH LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER KBIL...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE FOUR-CORNERS LOW WILL MOVE INTO KS/NE TONIGHT AND ENERGY WILL
BE LIMITED OVER THE AREA. MODELS DID TRY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE N
TOWARD THE AREA AROUND THE LOW. QPF CONTINUED TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SO WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.
BROUGHT SMALL CHANCES INTO FAR SE MT TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
SAT WAS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER KS/NE AND A
RIDGE SETTLING N OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FORMING A REX BLOCK. TRIMMED BACK INHERITED POPS TO LOW CHANCES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HAD HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY...CLOSEST TO GOOD MOISTURE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SAT.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND
MOISTURE GETS SUPPRESSED S. HAD POPS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE EVENING THEN LOWERED THEM OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MIXING TO ONLY AROUND 800
MB AND 850 TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO +8 DEGREES C. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO ALBERTA WILL
BEGIN TO DRY THE AIRMASS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY BUT WARMING TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY. SURFACE FLOWS BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY ON
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK PROMOTING BETTER MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE 70S OR BETTER OR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF A LONG
WAVE RIDGE ASSURING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK
RELATIVELY LITE. BORSUM.
&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  RMS/HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 037/053 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/074
    2/W 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 051 034/051 034/056 032/065 036/072 039/073 041/073
    2/W 32/W    21/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 055 035/056 034/061 035/066 038/071 039/075 041/074
    2/W 12/W    10/B    01/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 056 038/059 036/063 037/067 041/071 044/074 045/073
    2/W 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 051 035/055 032/059 034/064 038/070 040/073 042/072
    2/W 22/W    10/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 053 035/057 033/061 035/065 038/069 040/070 041/069
    2/W 11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 052 035/051 032/056 032/060 035/066 036/070 038/071
    2/W 25/W    31/B    01/U    11/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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