Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 210827
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
227 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO FRONT SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SW. AS OF 2 AM THERE
REMAINS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR CWA...BUT TO OUR SW INTO
IDAHO THE COVERAGE IS GREATER...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ALREADY...PERHAPS
UP TO 1.2 INCHES IN OUR EAST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
1.05 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE GGW RAOB AT 00Z LAST EVENING.

A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
GREATLY INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE MORNING BASED ON NEARBY RADAR TRENDS. LATEST
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL COOLING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT...W/
TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR 9C...SO MID LEVEL CAPPING WHICH IS OFTEN AN
INHIBITOR TO CONVECTION IN MID SUMMER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL AND FEEL LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY TODAY. AS FOR SEVERE WX...OUR FAR EAST COULD SEE A FEW
NEAR-SEVERE STORMS BUT THE RISK IS CERTAINLY GREATER EAST OF OUR
CWA AS THE SREF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING. IT APPEARS THAT MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN OUR EAST TOO EARLY IN THE DAY...
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTN.
SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH OF. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVAL THIS MORNING HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP IN OUR WEST BEFORE
18Z...AND HAVE RAISED AFTN POPS IN OUR EAST TO HIGHER SCATTERED.
THERE IS A SECONDARY PV MAX MOVING THRU OUR AREA TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCATTERED POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT.

THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE WET...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY MORNING...AND RISING
HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN OUR WEST AND
NORTH TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
+16C IN OUR SOUTH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB AGAIN BY TUESDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA PER THE ONSET OF
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK
EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY AND WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 061/090 063/095 062/093 057/084 057/084 057/086
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 084 054/089 055/093 055/091 050/083 049/083 049/088
    5/T 52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 089 059/092 060/099 060/094 056/085 055/085 056/087
    4/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 090 063/090 065/095 063/093 059/085 058/085 059/084
    3/T 42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/N    11/U
4BQ 091 061/090 062/097 062/096 058/084 057/084 058/084
    3/T 32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 088 059/086 060/090 059/091 056/083 052/082 056/081
    5/T 43/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 090 055/090 058/096 057/095 052/084 052/084 053/084
    3/T 31/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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