Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 262143
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
243 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER AND LESS
WIDESPREAD MIXING. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE IS QUITE MILD COMPARED
TO NORMALS AND REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW. SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY TOMORROW...AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY FOR MANY
AREAS RECORD HIGHS MAY BE PRESSED AGAIN. WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE
CIRCULATING INTO THE WESTERN STATES FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
ZONES TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS ITS SUB-
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE LIFT IS RELATIVELY BRIEF. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...WITH TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 30S AND 40S...COOLEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. FIRST OF TWO CLIPPERS IN A
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY BY SUNDAY. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BUT 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH THE FORCING. MODELS ARE EVEN
MORE SPREAD BY SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER PACIFIC JET INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET/CANADIAN
KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS EXTENDED INTO NW CANADA AND COLDER NW FLOW
OVER US...SUGGESTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPS. EXAMINATION OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SHOWS A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THRU SUNDAY/MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SUNDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS CANADIAN SFC
RIDGE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME WARMING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY BY DAY 8...AS SHOWN BY THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 25-35
KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/063 040/054 029/046 029/047 026/037 024/038 026/042
    00/U    11/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/W
LVM 042/063 038/052 027/047 029/045 025/040 025/042 028/044
    00/N    32/W    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/W
HDN 032/056 033/049 024/044 025/045 021/035 018/037 021/040
    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
MLS 033/056 034/045 025/042 026/042 020/031 018/032 019/036
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
4BQ 033/059 033/049 025/044 026/044 022/034 019/037 022/039
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/S    22/S    22/J
BHK 032/056 033/044 025/038 024/039 018/028 015/029 015/031
    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B    22/S    22/S    22/J
SHR 032/063 030/048 021/043 021/044 020/036 016/037 020/040
    00/U    12/W    00/B    01/U    22/S    22/S    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.