Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 130202
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
702 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to clear out cloud cover a bit earlier and lower
temperatures this evening over eastern zones. Temperatures
already at -10 degrees in a few locations. Should see 4 or 5 hours
of additional cooling before the westerly winds increase
overnight and begin to moderate temperatures heading into tomorrow
morning. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Short term period will be highlighted by a warming trend through
Wednesday afternoon, and a short period of quiet weather across
southern Montana on Tuesday. We are watching for a period of
increased winds that are anticipated to develop along our mountain
foothills Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Finally, another
round of snow moves in as we go into Thursday morning.

Short term begins very cold with widespread sub-zero temperatures
anticipated tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds will
allow us to quickly cool off tonight with many locations hitting
-10 to -15 in zones east of Forsyth and Hardin, and while the rest
of the region from Billings and westward drops into the 0 to -10
range.

A ridge of high pressure will briefly build in from the northwest
on Tuesday morning bringing warmer and quiet conditions for the
day. This will help push the coldest air out of the region as
downslope conditions move in underneath the ridge. Expect warmer
high temperatures Tuesday in the mid to upper 30s across the
region. Cold air in eastern Montana near Miles City, Forsyth, and
Ekalaka will be a little more stubborn to depart so expect cooler
temperatures in the upper 20s and near 30 in these areas.

This ridge of high pressure quickly flattens out late Tuesday as
a disturbance works into the northwestern US. This disturbance
will cause strong lee-side troughing to develop along our mountain
foothills and quickly increase the winds overnight. Favored
locations like Livingston, and Nye, could see the potential for 55
to 65 mph winds with this feature. Strong winds are also possible
from Big Timber north to Harlowton where gusts around 55 mph are
possible Wednesday afternoon. The disturbance will begin to push
into northwest parts of the forecast area by Wednesday evening as
a strong cold front quickly drops south. This will bring an end to
the gusty conditions along the foothills, but replace it with
increasing snow showers across the area. Precipitation will start
as a rain/snow mix and then turn to snow overnight Wednesday
behind the front. Snow showers will continue into Thursday morning
as another round of colder temperatures moves in. Currently
expect around 2 to 4 inches of snow with this next system so
another round of travel difficulties is anticipated. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Another arctic front sweeps across the forecast area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. This will bring another reinforcing
shot of not only cold air but another round of snow as well. The
GFS is wetter than the ECMWF but both models show the higher snow
rates to be between midnight Wednesday and noon Thursday. Snow
will continue into the afternoon but gradually decrease from north
to south. High temperatures will be much colder than Wednesday
with teens common across the forecast area.

A northwest flow aloft will prevail Friday through the weekend.
Mainly dry conditions will prevail Friday and Saturday although
some light snow shower activity will be possible as the flow aloft
will be somewhat unstable. However, lee-side troughing will
develop allowing for a downslope flow mainly from Billings
westward. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the 30s
Friday and Saturday. This will be short-lived as a stronger arctic
front sweeps across the forecast area on Sunday. This will bring
increasing chances for snow late Saturday night with snow likely
on Sunday. Hooley

&&

.AVIATION...

Other than some mid and high level clouds moving over the
forecast area this evening and throughout the overnight hours,
skies will be mostly clear. Expect VFR conditions to prevail.
However, gusty winds around 35kts will develop after 07z for the
KLVM area and adjacent Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 907/034 030/039 010/019 007/035 022/039 019/027 006/018
    00/U    02/W    66/S    11/B    12/O    43/S    32/S
LVM 901/038 031/039 013/024 014/037 025/041 024/029 010/023
    00/N    04/W    65/S    12/S    23/O    43/S    43/S
HDN 911/035 019/041 008/018 001/032 017/037 014/025 001/016
    00/U    02/W    66/S    11/B    12/S    33/S    32/S
MLS 913/026 016/038 005/011 902/028 015/035 013/021 905/010
    00/U    02/W    56/S    00/B    12/S    33/S    22/S
4BQ 908/030 016/040 010/016 901/030 017/036 017/026 001/015
    00/U    00/B    66/S    00/B    11/B    35/S    33/S
BHK 907/030 018/039 004/011 903/028 014/037 015/021 906/010
    00/U    00/N    56/S    00/B    12/S    44/S    23/S
SHR 911/038 020/043 012/018 000/033 017/040 017/029 002/018
    00/U    01/B    76/S    11/U    11/B    33/S    44/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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