Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 251515
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
915 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST JET ENERGY WAS DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
SO EXPECT SYSTEM TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH TODAY. OTHER JET ENERGY ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH...THIS SHOULD CONFINE THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THIS LOOKS GOOD IN GOING FORECAST. NO CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

TODAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT US SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING LAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HAS LIFTED INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO WARP MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. NSSL 4KM WRF INDICATING LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM
MILES CITY TO BAKER THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
WILL BRING A SPLIT FLOW TO SC/SE MT. MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF US BUT THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND
MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. JET DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THESE
REGIONS AND LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE
WEEKEND RAIN. RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IDAHO AND THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KTS TODAY BUT LIMITED HEATING
WILL KEEP CAPES FAIRLY LOW AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON...STILL AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND WILL BRING AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
INCREASING HEIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. RICHMOND


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT HAVE DIVERGED A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS CYCLES. IN ANY CASE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NORMAL IS ABOUT 84 DEGREES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST LATE FRIDAY ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SOME PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS THEN BRING THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE...THE
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS READINGS MAY BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W OF KBIL
THIS AFTERNOON AND W AND S OF KBIL TONIGHT. MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER SE MT TUE MORNING. EXPECT LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 049/074 053/080 057/087 060/086 061/085 061/073
    1/B 11/B    11/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
LVM 066 045/075 047/081 051/086 051/086 053/083 052/071
    2/T 22/T    10/U    10/U    01/U    13/T    33/T
HDN 067 049/076 052/081 055/088 057/089 059/087 060/078
    1/B 11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
MLS 065 051/075 054/080 057/087 061/089 062/088 061/082
    2/W 11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 066 052/075 053/079 056/087 058/089 062/089 060/084
    1/B 22/T    22/T    11/U    11/U    11/B    12/T
BHK 061 045/072 049/076 056/083 057/086 058/085 059/083
    2/W 12/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 066 047/074 049/079 051/087 054/089 056/087 056/080
    1/B 22/T    22/W    10/U    01/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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