Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 100902
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
302 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S EAST TO LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY WHICH
WILL BRING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON WARMING
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE REGION TO BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. MAIN FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FROM BIG HORN COUNTY EASTWARD. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
SETTING UP.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS GOOD
MIXING ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. MODELS PROGGING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +14C. THIS WILL BRING ALLOW READINGS TO BE IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. RICHMOND


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LARGE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST PROVIDING A MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN
FOOTHILLS. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN
FOOTHILLS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WARM ENOUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVEN THE FOOTHILLS FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
AND FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. GROUND
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY
SURFACES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SYSTEM IS A QUICK MOVER AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER
AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES WITH
AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER. HOOLEY
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 038/069 040/049 027/044 030/058 037/056 033/047
    1/B 10/B    36/R    63/O    11/U    02/W    23/W
LVM 059 036/067 038/049 025/049 026/057 034/055 030/046
    1/N 00/N    36/R    73/O    11/U    03/W    33/W
HDN 063 034/071 039/051 028/045 028/059 033/056 033/048
    1/B 10/B    36/R    63/O    11/U    02/W    22/W
MLS 062 035/069 038/051 026/045 027/056 031/055 033/047
    1/B 10/B    24/R    21/B    11/B    12/W    22/W
4BQ 062 034/071 040/054 027/045 026/056 032/056 032/045
    2/W 10/B    34/R    52/O    11/U    12/W    22/W
BHK 057 032/067 037/050 025/042 024/049 026/049 029/044
    1/B 00/B    24/R    21/B    01/B    12/W    22/W
SHR 060 034/069 039/051 026/042 024/055 032/055 031/046
    2/W 10/U    26/R    75/O    21/U    02/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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