Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 170619
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1219 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR
LIVINGSTON AND THE PARADISE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES IN LIVINGSTON
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW THE FORECAST LOW...AND WE STILL HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF COOLING TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT. AAG

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINED GUSTY OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AT MILES CITY AND 46 MPH AT BAKER. STRONGEST SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS SHOULD BACK
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WAS ENTERING EASTERN IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WAS
LACKING MOISTURE AND THUS MAINLY JUST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SPRINKLE HERE OR THERE
BUT INSTABILITY WAS LACKING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY. FRIDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH LESS MIXING AND A COLDER START BUT
WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A WIND
SHIFT LINE THAN A COLD FRONT AS AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT NOT THAT
MUCH COOLER THAN AIR AHEAD OF IT.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR SUN AND MON WHEN A 500-
MB RIDGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WE EXPECT HIGHS OVER
70 F OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUN...AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S F IN
MOST PLACES MON WHEN 700-MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE +6 TO +8 C
RANGE. EVEN MOS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR HIGHS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH IS A NOTEWORTHY STATISTICAL SIGNAL. SCHULTZ

GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME
PRECIP. THE SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF DOES NOT
LEND MUCH CONFIDENCE TO HOW EXACTLY THIS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY...JUST GOING TO TREND WITH THE SUPERBLEND
SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST...HIGHS THE 70S...AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM KBIL E OVERNIGHT.
OCCASIONALLY THE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT. THE CEILINGS SHOULD
THIN OUT DURING FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/061 044/072 044/072 045/075 047/073 047/065 043/066
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    22/W    10/U
LVM 029/062 042/071 042/072 044/074 046/070 041/061 041/062
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W    11/U
HDN 037/063 039/074 042/073 043/076 043/074 044/066 040/066
    00/U    00/E    00/U    00/U    00/B    22/W    10/U
MLS 038/059 038/070 043/071 044/074 044/074 046/065 041/064
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U
4BQ 038/059 039/070 042/072 043/075 044/074 045/064 040/063
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    10/U
BHK 034/054 033/064 040/068 040/070 042/071 043/063 039/061
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U
SHR 032/060 036/073 039/073 040/076 042/074 041/064 037/064
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    23/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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