Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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982
FXUS65 KBYZ 200933
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
333 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

For today, not expecting as much afternoon shower activity,
however some of the high res guidance is suggesting that over the
mountains and towards the Dakotas there will be some isolated
thunderstorm activity. With the water vapor not showing as much of
a monsoonal moisture tap or a shortwave tracking over the area,
these showers should be more limited. Tempeatures will be just a
tad cooler as northwest winds works into the area, reducing the
downslope warming.

Thursday will see a bit more of a west wind work into the area.
This will see temperatures warm some. Also, still cannot rule out
some afternoon thunderstorm activity over the mountains. Reimer


.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

As the front moves across Friday afternoon and evening
there is a chance for some thunderstorms. There will continue to
be some mid level moisture in place, similar to what we have had
the past several days. The front should provide enough of a
forcing mechanism that there will be some scattered thunderstorms.
In generall these probably will not produce much precip but a few
with some localized brief downpours are possible. Behind the
front, winds will continue to be gusty overnight. Reimer

Behind the cold front, northwesterly surface winds should bring a
cooler day for the region on Saturday...but cooldown will only be
relative with high temperatures still expected to be in the 80s
for most locations. Breezy conditions continue Sat. morning in
southeastern MT due to rapid surface pressure rises behind the
cold front. ECMWF shows a stronger wind scenario than the GFS, so
took a blend for now. Winds should quiet down Sat. afternoon.

Ridging builds in for Sunday, giving a dry, mostly sunny day with
high temperatures in the 90s.

On Monday...a shortwave trough should propagate eastward over
Montana...low-level easterly flow should be in place over SE
MT...and a surface trough/convergence zone should be over south
central/SE MT. This environment should favor a few scattered
showers and thunderstorms for at least a portion of southern
MT/north central WY.

A ridge centered over Nevada looks to build in on Tuesday,
bringing another dry, mostly sunny day.  RMS/Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible E of KMLS
through about 15z this morning. Isolated thunderstorms also possible
west of KBIL after 18z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail today.
RMS/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 094 062/096 064/098 059/087 059/092 061/092 062/092
    1/U 01/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
LVM 093 049/095 057/093 049/085 047/089 050/090 051/090
    2/T 21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
HDN 095 059/097 061/101 056/087 056/093 058/094 059/093
    1/U 01/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
MLS 099 064/098 069/100 062/087 059/091 063/093 064/093
    1/U 10/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
4BQ 102 062/099 068/102 060/088 058/092 061/094 062/093
    0/G 11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
BHK 100 061/095 064/099 059/084 055/088 058/090 059/089
    2/T 21/U    13/T    21/B    11/U    12/T    22/T
SHR 099 056/097 060/099 055/086 053/090 055/091 056/091
    1/U 11/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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