Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 170311
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
911 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Broad trough over the west coast will matriculate eastward
tonight and Monday. This will send waves of energy across the
northern Rockies for lift and a chance of precipitation. A
baroclinic leaf was forming over Idaho and precipitation has
spread in there and into western Wyoming. Track of the system will
take the majority of the ascent over northern Wyoming but high
resolution models do increase lift overnight and Monday over
southern Montana, including over central zones Monday afternoon.
Have trimmed back PoPs some this evening as precipitation was
still bogged down over northeast Idaho. Agree with increasing PoPs
overnight and Monday, especially over the high country where snow
will accumulate. The GFS was not terribly robust with QPF amounts,
so expecting snowfall to be mainly in the 4-6 inch category over
the higher terrain. TWH
.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...
Gusty winds across the area today in the wake of departing cold
front. Next system works into the area tonight from the southwest.
Potent upper-level jet streak slides in late tonight bringing
ample moisture and dynamics with it. Expecting snow over the
Mountains tonight through Monday Night with amounts around 6
inches in places that favor westerly flow aloft such as Cooke
Precip shield spreads eastward off the mountains and foothills as snow
levels fall to 6000 ft during the morning on Monday. Expecting
light showers to move into the Billings area after sunrise and
over the eastern Plains during the afternoon. Cool air aloft along
with showers and plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures in
the 50s for most locations Monday afternoon. Models also
indicating a few gusts during the afternoon out of the northwest
from Harlowton through Billings and down to Sheridan.
Shower chances taper off in most location by Monday evening,
however westerly flow will keep moisture into the
Beartooth/Absarokas through the remainder of the day on Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...
The region should be under northwest flow aloft on Wednesday,
with a weak disturbance moving through the flow. The disturbance
plus decent lapse rates could produce a few scattered showers, but
at this point think that it`s only a slight chance for the lower
elevations. Mountains could see some snow showers produce light
For Thursday through next weekend, upper-level anticyclonic flow
should dominate over the region, yielding mostly dry weather. A
stray shower is possible Fri.-Sun., as models show some very weak
disturbances propagating through fast flow. Kept the forecast
mostly dry for now because the probability of precipitation is so
low. Gap flow areas likely will have windy conditions Thu.-Fri.
due to a strengthened surface pressure gradient from high pressure
over E ID/W WY and some lee troughing east of the mountains.
Temperatures should be near seasonal normals on Wednesday, then
increase to a few degrees above normal Thursday through Sunday.
The strong gusty winds have diminished across the forecast area
and are expected to remain that way for the remainder of the
evening and overnight hours. Clouds will be on the increase from
southwest to northeast during the overnight hours. Conditions will
remain dry across the lower elevations with VFR conditions
prevailing. However, snow showers will be likely over the
mountains resulting in mountain obscurations throughout the night.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
BIL 044/057 039/057 038/056 037/061 043/068 043/063 040/061
05/W 21/B 22/W 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/B
LVM 040/052 034/051 032/050 034/059 041/064 040/062 039/060
28/W 22/W 42/W 11/N 01/N 01/N 11/B
HDN 042/060 038/059 037/058 035/063 039/069 040/065 038/062
14/W 21/B 22/W 11/U 00/B 01/B 11/B
MLS 041/060 039/058 037/056 036/062 041/068 042/064 038/059
03/W 31/B 12/W 11/U 00/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 043/062 038/059 036/056 035/064 040/071 040/067 039/062
03/W 21/B 12/W 11/U 00/B 01/B 11/B
BHK 039/060 038/056 033/054 033/060 038/067 038/061 034/059
03/W 31/B 12/W 11/U 10/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 039/059 034/055 033/054 031/062 036/069 037/065 035/062
24/W 21/B 22/W 11/U 00/B 01/U 11/B