Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 140218
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
718 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Winds near Nye continue to flirt with advisory criteria this
evening while Livingston is seeing a bit less wind...mostly 35 to
45 mph. Will make no changes to our wind highlight for the
Beartooth Foothills which runs til 3 am. Satellite imagery shows
a good amount of high cloudiness over the region with an upstream
shortwave moving into WA/OR. Ascent from this energy is several
hours off yet so have dropped evening pops over our western
mountains. Chance of precip will increase from the west overnight
tonight, with the best chance tomorrow morning along mid level
baroclinicity and behind a surface cold front. Have adjusted pops
up some tomorrow, especially over our western mountains and to the
north of Billings. Believe surface temps tomorrow morning will be
warm enough to avoid a freezing rain risk, but something to think
to watch as temps fall tonight. Otherwise expect a mix of rain and
snow showers with little or no wet snow accumulation for the
lower elevations, and a few inches over the mountains. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Winds already on the increase this afternoon in the western
foothills with gusts 40 to 50 mph from Livingston to Nye. Brief
gusts to 60 mph possible through the overnight period as a low
pressure system moves in from the west. Cold front moves through
the area tomorrow morning which will knock temperatures down 5 to
10 degrees during the day. Behind the front, winds increase
tomorrow afternoon over the central Plains with gusts 20 to 40 mph
possible by late afternoon. Likely snow chances in the mountains
through tomorrow, with only isolated rain along and behind the
front for the central Plains. Dry day expected on Wednesday with
ridging over eastern Montana in the wake of the departing cold
front. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Thursday is a pre-frontal day so it should be warmer and windier
than Wednesday with highs possibly making it into the lower 50s
over much of southern MT. Extreme SE Montana and eastern Sheridan
Co. WY could reach 60 degrees. Cold front pushes through sometime
late afternoon into the evening hours bringing a chance for
rain/snow showers to the lower elevations, with a good chance at
accumulating snow in the mountains.

Friday looks cooler with high temperatures in the 30s and lower
40s and a bit unsettled with isolated rain and snow showers.
Although our area will see a cooldown on Friday, the core of the
cold air should miss our region and instead head to the northern
Great Plains. It will also be breezy on Friday as a surface low
tracks southeastward across northeast MT...putting much of south
central MT in a decent pressure gradient.

Upper ridging should build over the Northern Rockies for Saturday
through at least early next week. This pattern should give dry and
generally mild weather to the region. The ridge could temporarily
be flattened a bit by a weak shortwave moving eastward on Monday.
The wave looks so weak have kept precipitation chances out of the
forecast for now. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s on
Saturday, then rise to the 40s and lower 50s for Sunday and
Monday.

Periods of strong winds in the Livingston area should occur
throughout the extended period...beginning with gusts to around
50 mph during the day on Thursday. RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected tonight. Scattered lower elevation rain
showers and mountain snow showers are possible west of KBIL after
midnight, and Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains see increased
obscuration overnight. Winds over western foothills will gust to
around 30-40kts this evening at KLVM. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/046 027/045 034/051 030/042 027/042 027/048 031/048
    12/W    00/U    10/N    42/W    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 036/042 026/045 038/046 026/036 023/036 025/043 031/044
    34/W    00/N    26/W    52/W    11/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 032/047 023/046 028/055 028/044 024/044 023/050 027/050
    12/W    00/U    10/N    33/W    11/B    00/B    11/B
MLS 031/047 024/042 028/053 027/042 023/040 022/048 026/046
    02/W    00/B    00/N    33/W    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 033/050 025/049 031/059 029/043 024/042 024/051 027/049
    02/W    00/U    00/B    22/W    11/B    00/U    11/B
BHK 031/049 021/040 025/055 025/040 018/036 018/045 023/045
    02/W    00/U    00/B    23/W    11/B    10/B    11/B
SHR 031/051 023/048 028/058 027/042 021/044 022/052 027/051
    02/W    00/U    00/N    33/W    11/U    00/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONE 66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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