Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 232119
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
319 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE. A BAND OF
STREAMWISE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE WORKS OUT
OF THE IDAHO. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTER OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO MAINLY WESTERLY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH BETTER MIXING...WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING...PLUS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN...A LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY WILL MOVE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ENERGY...
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST TO MAYBE PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE ARE WILL BE WARM AND DRY.
REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE. THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS WERE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TIMING...BUT THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE POSITION. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS WAS
COOLER AND WETTER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AS SHOULD SEE A RAMP UP IN
ACTIVITY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT SWINGING IN.

A COLD FRONT WILL RIP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND ENHANCE THE
LIFT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 90S ON SUNDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
ADVERTISING A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO HAVE RAISED HIGHS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WINDY AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF
INTO AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS KICKING IN. THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER
DAY...DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER
FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. TWH

&&

.AVIATION...

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHOWERS WHICH WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/089 060/090 061/093 061/080 055/079 057/087 059/090
    32/T    22/T    12/T    23/T    31/N    11/U    11/U
LVM 054/086 053/086 053/088 052/073 047/077 051/085 053/087
    53/T    22/T    12/T    24/T    41/N    11/U    11/U
HDN 059/091 058/093 060/096 059/083 054/081 056/089 057/092
    32/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U
MLS 061/091 062/094 064/095 063/088 056/081 057/089 060/091
    31/B    12/T    12/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    10/U
4BQ 061/091 061/092 063/097 063/094 056/080 057/088 059/090
    22/T    32/T    12/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/088 059/090 060/095 061/091 055/079 054/086 057/088
    21/B    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U    10/U
SHR 056/087 055/089 056/093 056/084 051/078 052/085 054/088
    33/T    31/B    11/U    22/T    21/N    11/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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