Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 172123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
323 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Conditions are drying out as downslope conditions move through
the forecast area. These drier conditions will push east today
with 25 to 35 mph wind gusts through the rest of the afternoon.
Winds will lessen after sunset with most of the precipitation
chances staying over the Beartooth/Absarokas where isolated snow
showers are possible through the overnight hours. A weak ridge
will keep most shower chances suppressed over the rest of the
forecast area through at least Tuesday afternoon.

A weak shortwave in the fast Pacific flow approaches western
portions of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Another round of
snow showers will overspread the higher terrain above 7000ft, with
the Beartooth`s picking up the most. We are expecting 4-6 inches
of new snow for the Beartooths with the highest accumulations on
western-facing slopes. The Big Horns and Crazy mountains will see
a little bit less, with 2-5 inches of new snow expected through
Wednesday afternoon. For the lower elevations and plains, shower
chances will be confined to locations west, south, and southeast
of Billings as the shortwave moves south of the region. Drier
conditions move in beginning Wednesday evening as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the west overnight.

Temperatures through the short term period will be seasonable and
in the mid 50s on Tues and Wed with night time lows in the lower
to mid 30s. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Ridging should yield a dry day on Thursday. For Thursday night,
the ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles and to a lesser extent the GFS and GFS
ensembles have been trending southward with placement of the jet
stream. Am leaning more towards the current ECMWF solution now,
which brings the left exit region of a jet streak over the area
Thursday night. Think that this feature could produce enough lift
to yield a few showers, so have introduced low PoPs across the
area for Thursday night. This jet streak should move quickly over
the region, so any precip. would be light and end before Friday

Upper-level ridging builds in for Friday and should dominate our
weather with dry conditions through Sunday and most of next
Monday. Ridge axis looks to slide eastward late next Monday,
bringing southwesterly flow over our area with a chance of
precipitation from disturbances moving through the flow.

Windy conditions are still expected in gap flow areas (i.e. near
Livingston) Thursday into Friday as surface pressure gradient
increases between high pressure over E ID/W WY and lee troughing
east of the mountains.

Temperatures should be near or a few degrees above normal
Thursday-Monday.  RMS/BT



VFR conditions will prevail the rest of today and overnight. Look
for a few showers to linger across the far eastern sections this
evening before we see some partial clearing later. Westerly
surface winds from 10 to 20 mph should be expected late today,
decreasing through the evening. BT


    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 039/057 037/055 034/059 043/066 041/063 041/063 042/063
    12/W    21/B    01/B    20/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 035/050 033/049 035/055 040/062 038/062 040/061 041/060
    23/W    42/W    01/N    21/N    01/B    11/N    12/W
HDN 037/059 037/057 032/062 038/067 038/064 040/064 040/064
    11/B    21/B    00/B    20/B    01/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 039/058 036/055 033/060 042/065 040/064 039/061 040/063
    31/U    11/B    10/U    20/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 038/060 035/054 031/061 040/068 039/066 039/065 040/067
    31/U    11/B    10/U    20/B    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 038/056 032/052 031/058 038/064 037/062 036/060 037/062
    41/U    11/B    10/U    20/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
SHR 033/056 032/052 027/060 036/067 035/065 037/065 037/064
    21/B    32/W    10/B    20/U    01/U    11/U    11/B




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