Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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033
FXUS65 KBYZ 132255
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
355 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Snow showers across much of eastern Montana were stubborn to
dissipate this evening as a weak disturbance moves through the
region. These snow showers are expected to stick around through
the late afternoon and early evening hours before we finally see
improving conditions overnight. Tricky part of the forecast
besides the snow showers revolves around temperatures. Many
locations west of a Hysham Lame Deer line hit the mid to upper
30s, even some 40s further west near the Mountain foothills. These
warm temperatures have reduced the blowing snow threat so for now
have taken it out of the forecast. These warm temperatures push
east overnight, albeit slower, as the arctic airmass continues its
retreat east. Most locations in eastern Montana will see temps
remain steady or slowly climb overnight while the rest of the
forecast area west of Miles City and Broadus will see their temps
slighty cool tonight into the mid 20s.

Expect another round of warm temperatures in the upper 30s and low
40s across the region Sunday but it won`t last long as a large
upper level low over central Canada will drive the arctic
boundary into our region Sunday afternoon through early Monday
morning. Expect temperatures to quickly plummet after sunset
beginning in northeast zones near Miles City/Baker as the front
moves in from the northeast. Expect single digit temps to reach
Billings and Western zones late Sunday night into Monday morning.
As for snow potential, the system will move through the area
fairly fast so this should keep accumulations on the lighter side
and only around 1 to 3 inches. Looks like the heaviest snow
totals will be in eastern Montana around and between Miles City,
Ekalaka, and Broadus. Also should see the higher end of these
accumulations along the Mountain foothills where the northeastly
upslope flow interacts with the terrain. As for timing of the
snow, it will begin along and behind the front in Miles City/Baker
in the late afternoon and then spread to Billings/Roundup around
the late evening hours and then finally bring snow to the
foothills by midnight. As for impacts, a majority of this snow is
expected overnight but the morning commute could be a little
tricky thanks to the recent snow so give extra time for any of
your travels.

Cold temperatures are expected Monday afternoon with highs below
zero in eastern Montana and generally in the single digits and
low teens in central and western zones. Expect cold temperatures
Monday night into Tuesday morning as the arctic airmass rules over
the region. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Upper level pattern has a sharp shortlived ridge move over the
area on Tuesday with a weak shortwave trough moving across tuesday
night into early Wednesday. Deeper upper low over the NE Pacific
moves onshore Thursday with brings a stronger flow aloft to the
area but initially it brings a downslope moderating pattern. By
Friday broad troughiness moves in from the Pacific Northwest with
the jet stream sagging southward. Pattern persists into the
weekend but some height rises indicated by later on Sunday or
Monday depending on model solution.

Tuesday will see moderating temperatures with increasing west
winds as the arctic air retreats with leeside troughing
developing on Wednesday to maintain the winds across the western
zones in particular in favored gap flow areas. This will bring a
warming trend and tempeatures approaching 40 by Thursday. A bit of
a cool down on Friday into the weekend as the mixing is not quite
as strong and air aloft is cooler. Minimum temperatures will be
impacted by rate of snowmelt.

Precipitation potential looks limited to the mountains through
the period though the initial approach of the leeside trough
Tuesday night into Wednesday could cause a bit of precip over the
western plains. borsum
&&

.AVIATION...

Area of snow showers between KBIL and KMLS will dissipate after
sunset. Expect VFR conditions except MVFR in this band. Cold
front will move from east to west across the area Sunday afternoon
brining snow and MVFR to IFR conditions. borsum


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/036 001/008 000/027 016/037 021/039 021/032 016/029
    15/W    81/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    24/J    22/S
LVM 032/038 012/025 004/038 023/041 025/040 022/031 020/030
    11/B    62/J    00/N    12/W    12/W    44/J    22/S
HDN 023/034 905/009 906/024 007/035 018/039 022/034 018/031
    18/J    80/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    24/J    23/S
MLS 017/027 915/904 915/015 004/029 017/035 025/032 014/027
    18/J    30/I    00/U    01/U    11/B    22/J    23/S
4BQ 027/035 912/002 913/023 010/033 018/037 023/032 016/031
    38/J    60/U    00/U    01/U    01/B    13/J    23/S
BHK 018/026 919/903 920/018 006/034 017/038 024/033 016/030
    17/J    10/I    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/J    22/S
SHR 026/036 004/012 903/031 009/037 020/039 026/032 017/032
    14/J    82/J    00/U    01/U    10/B    14/J    32/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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