Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180314
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
COORDINATION. LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES WITH A CLEAR SKY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
AREA FROM BAKER TO BILLINGS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IT WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

PRETTY QUITE SHORT TERM FORECAST AHEAD. FOG AND STRATUS HAVE
LIFTED OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA SHIFTS EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHEAST
GRADIENT TO DEVELOP TONIGHT EAST OF BILLINGS. THIS INCREASED
MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP FOG AND LOW
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING. RAPID REFRESH MODEL...WHICH DID A PRETTY
GOOD JOG OF CAPTURING THE STRATUS THIS MORNING...DRIES OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND KEEPS LOW STRATUS WELL EAST OF THE STATE. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENTS DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY.

BETTER MIXING WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN TONIGHT AND FLATTEN FOR ZONAL FLOW
SATURDAY. INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WILL PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
FROM REACHING THE MID 70S. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND TURN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY SUNDAY. A SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT
NOT OVERLY TIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
NOT MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGHS SHOULD REAMIN
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STILL REMAINS QUIET...WITH MOST OF THE
PERIOD DOMINATED BY A RIDGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND WIND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A PACIFIC
WAVE COMES ASHORE...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS
PREVIOUS RUN...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS YESTERDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA. MODEL SPREAD DOES NOT REALLY DOES NOT GIVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CHANGE POPS TOO MUCH...SO HAVE GENERALLY
LEFT THEM ALONE.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE WARM WEATHER ACROSS
MONTANA...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECTING HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TO STILL BE IN THE MID 70S...BEFORE DROPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S FOLLOWING THE FRONT. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG TOMORROW MORNING AT
KMLS...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND IT LOOKS
BETTER FOR THE FOG TO BE FARTHER EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/073 044/071 046/074 048/074 046/066 043/070 047/069
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    21/B    11/U    11/U
LVM 042/070 042/070 044/073 046/071 041/062 040/067 046/065
    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/U    11/U
HDN 038/074 042/072 042/076 044/076 043/067 039/071 042/070
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/W    11/U    11/U
MLS 038/071 043/070 043/074 044/075 045/066 041/069 043/069
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 039/071 042/071 042/075 045/075 045/064 039/069 041/069
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U    11/U
BHK 032/065 040/067 039/070 042/072 043/063 038/066 040/066
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U    11/U
SHR 036/072 039/071 039/076 042/077 041/065 036/070 038/070
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/W    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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