Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270922
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKING TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BRINGING
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH SOME
INDICATION OF PERIODIC SHOTS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. A WEAK AND
RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
TODAY...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY...AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF
THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...AND ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
TIED TIGHTLY TO DIURNAL HEATING. AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE RIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO OUR
HOTTEST DAY WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES OF 17C RIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE LATEST
MODELS KEEP DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS AWAY UNTIL EARLY EVENING AND HOLD
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH MAY PREVENT HIGHS FROM TOUCHING 100
DEGREES BUT WILL BE CLOSE...SO WILL LET THE FORECAST HIGHS RIDE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS WAS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ENERGY AND THUS WITH LIFT
GENERATED MONDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS MAY BE STORMS
AROUND GENERATING VERY STRONG WINDS WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND
HIGH PWATS ABOVE A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVES TOWARD THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AND TURNS
THE MID LEVEL FLOW NORTHWEST AS HEIGHTS FALL. COOLER AIR WILL TRY
TO WORK INTO THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL GET COUNTERACTED BY DRIER
AIR ALOFT FLUSHING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. NOW THE ECMWF WAS
SLOWER WITH THIS TRANSITION AND IF TRUE WOULD SPELL A BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND WAS BROAD WITH TIMING. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER WAVE ON
THURSDAY. KEPT LOW POPS MAINLY IN PLAY HERE AND TRIED TO TIME
THESE WAVES IN A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH. THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES
WILL SERVE TO GRADUALLY TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT AS THE END OF
THE WEAK ARRIVES. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT ONTO THE PLAINS BUT COULD CAUSE OCCASIONAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 064/096 066/100 068/093 065/091 062/088 059/086
    0/U 11/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/B    22/T
LVM 096 057/097 057/100 058/093 054/092 055/089 053/087
    0/U 01/B    02/T    32/T    21/B    11/U    22/T
HDN 097 062/098 063/101 067/095 065/093 063/091 061/088
    0/U 01/U    11/G    22/T    21/U    11/B    22/T
MLS 094 061/095 064/097 067/094 064/089 063/088 060/085
    0/U 00/U    00/U    22/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
4BQ 091 059/093 062/096 066/092 064/089 063/087 060/085
    0/U 00/U    10/U    22/T    21/U    21/B    22/T
BHK 090 058/090 061/093 064/088 061/085 059/083 056/082
    0/U 00/U    00/U    22/T    32/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 090 058/091 059/093 063/090 059/087 058/085 056/082
    0/U 01/U    11/U    22/T    21/B    11/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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