Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 161530
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING MAINLY
TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERE WILL OCCUR TODAY. ALSO
INCREASED WINDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AS SURFACE GRADIENTS
WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY AND NO CHANGES MADE TO
THE LIKELY POPS OVER OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. BUFKIT
INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB AROUND 8
C/KM ALONG WITH SLIM CAPE. ADDITIONAL LEFT WILL COME FROM LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET ALONG WITH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING OVER THE
AREA. THE LIFT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ENHANCE OUR SHOWER CHANCES. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ALL NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-
BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE. GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
DOWNSLOPING THE BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN AREAS AS THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS BIG HORN COUNTY WHICH IS A FAVORED UPSLOPE AREA UNDER A
NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND. TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS SO PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
LEAVING JUST THE FAR EASTERN AREAS TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...BUT ARE
IN SOMEWHAT DISARRAY CONCERNING A POTENTIALLY POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TRACK SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY ENDING UP IN CANADA
IN THE EVENING. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
JETLET WHICH WILL HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG UPWARD FORCING. I
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN A VERY SPRING LIKE FASHION.
I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT SOME SREF MEMBERS DO SHOW SOME CAPE
DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IF THE
TRACK TRENDS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL
CYCLES OF THE ECMWF WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER
IN OUR FORECASTS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BREEZY AND MILD PERIOD OF WEATHER OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A POTENTIALLY
CRUCIAL TIME FRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD BE A
BIG RAIN PRODUCER. CURRENT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND COULD RESULT IN RAIN ON SOME HIGH
COUNTRY SNOWPACK...OR AT LEAST ON THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...HYDRO
ISSUES MAY ENSUE WITH RISING WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS. WE WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TRACKS AND THE ECMWF DOES NOT CLOSE OFF THE SYSTEM
AT ANY POINT. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY W OF KMLS TO BROADUS TODAY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. E OF THIS AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE GENERALLY OBSCURED. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM AROUND KBIL W THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS E OF KBIL AND OVER KSHR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 031/055 038/064 040/065 039/072 042/069 042/068
    6/W 61/E    12/W    20/B    00/U    00/B    12/W
LVM 045 028/056 036/061 036/063 041/068 041/066 040/066
    6/W 61/E    23/W    20/U    00/U    02/W    22/W
HDN 046 028/056 034/066 038/067 039/073 042/072 041/070
    7/W 61/E    12/B    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
MLS 045 029/054 033/061 037/065 040/072 039/070 043/071
    3/W 33/W    12/W    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
4BQ 045 026/053 030/066 038/066 041/073 042/073 042/074
    6/W 22/W    11/B    20/B    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 042 026/047 028/055 034/061 036/071 039/069 040/071
    3/W 23/W    22/N    30/B    00/U    00/U    12/W
SHR 045 028/056 034/066 038/064 038/070 040/069 038/070
    7/W 41/E    11/B    20/B    00/U    00/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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