Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240000

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Quick update out to adjust PoP`s for current radar trends through
mid evening. Reduced Pop`s for northern half of CWA and increased
them a notch for southern zones as wide moisture/dynamics heading
across Wyoming/Montana border. BT


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Bands of rain with embedded thunderstorms are currently noted on
regional radar analysis over northern and central Wyoming. Some of
these bands have already moved over the Bighorns and Sheridan
county. Expecting this area of rainfall to increase and spread
northward this afternoon and into the evening hours. Northwest
flow looks to keep the heaviest precip over the mountains and
high terrain before shifting over the eastern Plains as we head
into Saturday. Expecting more vigorous convection to move over the
Carter county area between 8 PM and Midnight. There is potential
for an isolated Severe Thunderstorm in this area, with large hail
and gusty winds being the primary threats.

Upper-low slides over northern Wyoming this evening with colder
air wrapping around the backside of the low in the early morning
hours. This should bring the snow level down between 8000 and 9000
feet over the Bighorns. Models have really begun to trend towards
higher qpf values which should allow for several inches of snow to
accumulate even with meager snow ratios. Winter Weather Advisory
for tonight through Saturday with 5-10 inches of snow possible for
the Bighorns.

Saturday, expecting rain to taper off in the Billings area
between noon and 2 PM as the surface low slides eastward.
Expecting gusty winds across the forecast area with gusts to 40
mph in the west and gusts to 50 mph possible over the eastern
Plains. Have held off on a High Wind Watch over the eastern Plains
for now but an issuance will be considered this evening.

Skies clear Saturday night and temps are expected to fall into
the upper 30s and low 40s. Warmer day on Sunday with temperatures
into the mid 60s and sunny skies. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

No major changes need to the long term period. Upper level ridging
will allow high pressure to take control of the weather through
Wednesday. Accordingly, temperatures will be seasonable and in the
mid 70s with dry conditions across the forecast area. A weak
backdoor cold front will move through on Wednesday cooling
temperatures back into the upper 60s and low 70s.

A weak disturbance will slide up into the region from the
southwest on Thursday generating a small chance for showers.
Looking towards next week, some models suggest another
disturbance moving across the forecast area so raised rain chances
for the start of next weekend. Dobbs



Conditions will deteriorate through the evening with IFR
conditions moving in to the region after 03z with widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gradual improvement to MVFR
can be expected tomorrow after 12/15z as a cold front pushes
through from west to east. The biggest concern with this front
will be an increase in northwest winds to 20-30 kts. KBHK and KMLS
could see gusts nearing 40 kts on Saturday afternoon. Dobbs


    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 049/059 043/066 046/073 050/077 051/070 048/071 048/070
    77/W    20/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    12/T
LVM 044/057 037/067 042/075 046/077 046/070 045/069 046/067
    54/W    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T
HDN 047/057 042/065 043/072 047/078 049/072 047/071 048/071
    98/W    20/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    12/T
MLS 050/056 043/064 043/070 047/077 050/072 049/069 049/070
    69/W    50/U    00/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 049/053 042/062 041/070 046/077 049/074 049/071 049/071
    88/W    60/U    00/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 050/056 042/059 040/066 043/073 047/072 047/069 047/068
    88/W    70/N    11/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 046/053 041/062 043/070 045/077 046/072 046/071 046/071
    98/W    31/U    11/U    10/U    01/U    11/B    11/B


WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT Saturday FOR
      ZONE 98.


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