Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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449 FXUS64 KLZK 221747 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1247 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term period as several shortwaves push through the area. Continued shower/thunderstorms development is expected through the early morning hours Wednesday. Additionally, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to pop-up and move out of Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible with these storms. Unsettled weather is expected to continue into Thursday with coverage of storms limited as well as the chance for severe weather on the lower side. With that said, some storms could still be strong to severe. CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. Many locations across the state should prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday night with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will be the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s. with overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An active pattern will continue into the long term period as SW/W flow continues through the weekend. Multiple upper level disturbances will move over AR in this flow aloft...with continued chances for convection nearly each day into Memorial Day. A more significant upper wave will move over the region Sat into Sun...with some increased potential for convection and possible SVR Wx over the weekend. Ample instability is forecast with this system that a few SVR storms will be possible. However...details on the overall SVR threat and storm evolution are too uncertain to discuss details this far out in time as they`ll be highly dependent on mesoscale features. Some threat for heavy rainfall will also be seen given several rounds of rainfall possible. Even so...the exact placement of the heaviest rainfall is also uncertain at this time to warrant placing any Flash Flood watches in the long term period. A larger scale pattern shift looks to develop late in the forecast as an upper level closed low develops over the Great Lakes Region. This will send a strong cold front SE through the region by Monday into Tuesday...bringing cooler and drier air to the state. Chances for rainfall decrease...with temps dropping back to near or below normal levels. Dewpts will also drop to more comfortable levels by early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. New thunderstorm initiation is taking place in eastern Arkansas. Expect additional thunderstorms through the period as the front across the state will be nearly stationary but waffle around from time to time. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 66 82 67 83 / 80 70 70 40 Camden AR 67 86 68 92 / 60 30 40 10 Harrison AR 62 80 65 83 / 60 50 60 40 Hot Springs AR 66 85 67 88 / 80 50 60 10 Little Rock AR 69 85 69 88 / 80 60 70 20 Monticello AR 70 87 70 91 / 60 40 40 10 Mount Ida AR 64 83 66 88 / 80 50 70 10 Mountain Home AR 63 80 65 83 / 70 50 60 40 Newport AR 67 83 68 83 / 80 70 70 50 Pine Bluff AR 69 86 69 90 / 70 50 50 20 Russellville AR 66 84 67 87 / 80 50 70 20 Searcy AR 66 83 67 85 / 80 60 70 30 Stuttgart AR 69 85 70 88 / 80 60 60 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...51