193
FXUS66 KMTR 270922
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
222 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week.
Afternoon highs slightly above normal on tap for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

A Deja Vu Monday for most as far as high temperatures go. A few
locations in the interior have the potential to be a couple of
degrees warmer. Summer time ridge pattern in full effect to round
out the holiday weekend. Marine layer remains intact through the
day near coastal areas with the associated stratus retreating to
the coastline by mid-to-late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Tranquil weather through the work week with stratus clearing to
the coast each morning. A progressive, deep upper low traverses
through the Pacific NW midweek to flatten the ridge a bit. This
will keep any further warming at bay through the middle of the
week, but isn`t expected to bring any other notable change to the
weather. As this feature departs, the ridge builds back and a
secondary warming trend continues into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

The marine layer temperature inversion is strengthening, the
depth is approx 1200 feet per Bodega Bay and Fort Ord profiler
data. It`s currently clear /VFR/ except satellite imagery shows
late afternoon stratus coverage over the southern Monterey Bay,
Point Lobos and the Carmel Highlands. Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/
redevelops tonight and Memorial Day morning with some inland
intrusion forecast across the Bay Area and the Salinas Valley.
Patchy stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing in the North Bay late
tonight and Memorial Day morning. VFR returning by late Memorial
Day morning, except along the immediate coast patchy MVFR-IFR
likely continuing through afternoon to early evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Near high confidence VFR continues through the
evening, then increasing probability of stratus developing with
tempo IFR ceiling forecast 12-16z, VFR returning with an early mix
out 16z Memorial Day morning. West wind 15 with a few gusts to 20
to 25 knots until 04z this evening, wind decreasing overnight to
near 10 knots or less, then increasing to 15 knots with afternoon
gusts to 20 to 25 knots Memorial Day afternoon and early evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery shows stratus nearby
over the southern Monterey Bay, with drier air aloft reaching
across the bay from the northwest. High resolution models forecast
an eddy circulation developing over the northern Monterey Bay,
with a splitting wind flow across the northern Salinas Valley and
Monterey Peninsula may help extend duration of VFR while drying
out the current patch of stratus or hold conditions near neutral
for eventual nocturnal stratus /IFR/ development beginning mid to
late evening. Stratus /IFR/ otherwise is forecast tonight and
Memorial Day morning. VFR returning by late Memorial Day morning,
with low-moderate probability of an IFR stratus intrusion in the
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 505 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

Northwest breeze over the outer waters persists through Memorial
Day weekend creating hazardous conditions for small crafts. Fresh
to strong northwest and onshore winds across the coastal waters
and bays during the afternoons mid next week. Wave heights
beginning to increase by the middle of the work week up to 11 to
13 feet. Otherwise mostly quiet marine conditions through the
forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...SO

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