220
FXUS66 KMTR 101222
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
422 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1233 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Another beautiful day Friday! Strong offshore winds return to the
higher elevations early Saturday through Sunday morning, with
another push early Monday through Tuesday. The overall pattern
will keep mostly clear skies and unseasonably dry weather around
through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

We are keeping a close eye on a push of strong winds overnight,
but so far anything over 30 mph is mostly confined to the highest
peaks in the North and East Bay. As such, no wind advisory is
needed. The SFO-WMC gradient peaked around -14.5 mb around 8 PM
Thursday, and has since relaxed to -10.5 mb. This trend will
continue as the ridge axis becomes centered over the Bay Area and
extends to the NE, leading to a gentle breeze Friday. With clear
skies, abundant sunshine, and afternoon temperatures about 5
degrees above normal, Friday will be a spectacular day across the
Bay Area and Central Coast, although some haze may get trapped
under the strong high pressure. By Friday night, the next
disturbance in the 500 mb pattern will begin sliding down from the
Pacific Northwest towards the Rocky Mountains. At the surface, a
back-door cold front will form, with cold air taking hold across
the intermountain west. This will tighten the gradient with the
subtropical high pressure offshore, refreshing the strong N-NE
winds by early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

By Saturday morning, the leading edge of the back-door cold front
will extend somewhere along the Sierra or Central Valley. The
current prognostic charts from the Weather Prediction Center
supports 850 mb temperature anomaly guidance that this front will
push to the coast and beyond through the day Saturday. Unlike our
typical cold fronts that bring maritime moisture, this inland
front will only bring another round of strong offshore winds and
colder temperatures. More than likely, there won`t be any clouds
associated with this frontal passage, much less any rain. I
leaned heavily on the local WRF for winds and gusts in the
official forecast, mainly since it preformed so well with
Tuesday`s offshore event. A wind advisory is in effect from
midnight Friday night through 10 AM Sunday for most of the higher
elevations across the Bay Area, where gusts are expected to reach
up to 50 mph. The 850 mb temperature is currently around 16C and
will steadily fall to around 7C by Saturday morning. That`s a
drop from around the 99th percentile to the daily mean for this
time of year, and will bring a return of more seasonable
temperatures.

The next feature of interest moves through Sunday. A pair of short
wave troughs are expected to move through the Bay Area, and will
likely combine forces to spawn a cut-off low pressure system off
the coast of Southern California. While this sounds similar the
the cut-off low earlier this week, the position is farther west,
and may support an unusual E or even SE upper level synoptic wind
direction across the region. Once it becomes cut-off on Monday or
early Tuesday, this system will remain in place through the
majority of the work week without any upper level support to pick
it up. The strongest winds look to be Monday before the low
gradually weakens. The NBM doesn`t currently trigger any wind
advisory criteria, but it may not handle this situation well due
to the bias correction fighting the unusual set-up. We will have
to wait another day or two to start seeing more high resolution
solutions to this problem before making that determination.

In summary, we will have a couple more pushes of strong offshore
winds and temperatures will retreat to normal. Otherwise, this
unusual dry stretch will continue. We`re in the middle of the
rainy season, and the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members all show a 0%
chance of rain through the 16th, with less than 10% through the
20th. Roughly 1/2 of the members are dry through the 25th and
there is no indication of significant rainfall after that. It`s
still early, but there`s a good chance this will go down as the
driest January in the last decade. Downtown San Francisco has
0.19" so far this month, and would need to beat 0.61" from 2022 to
avoid this benchmark. Normal January rainfall is 4.38 inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Widespread VFR and light to moderate winds last into Friday evening.
Lower CIGs and mist will roll through the areas from the north to
the south starting friday evening as a trough pushes through the
region. LIFR/IFR CIGs and reductions in visibility will affect most
areas, but will be quick to clear into the late night and early
Saturday as more moderate to breezy north winds arrive.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into the night with light to moderate
winds. Winds stay easterly through the mid morning before becoming
more variable. Winds become westerly into the afternoon and
northwesterly Friday night. As the winds turn northwest, expect IFR
CIGs to fill around the SF Bay with some reduction in visibility.
CIGs dissipate and VFR returns into early Saturday as moderate
northerly winds build.


SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the late night. Expect light
to moderate southeasterly drainage winds to affect the terminals
through the late morning, with lighter and more variable winds
expected in the afternoon. LIFR/IFR CIGS and mist affect the
terminals into the late night and last through the end of the TAF
period.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Stronger and gustier north winds build into the day with elevated
wave heights between 10 to 15 feet developing into the night. The
strongest winds will be located over the northern outer waters
where gale force gusts are likely over the weekend. Seas reamin
elevated into the work week, but winds look to reduce.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Sunday for
     CAZ504-512-514-515.

PZ...Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Sunday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this
     evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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