Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1139 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Today/Tonight: DPVA attendant potent shortwave energy tracking
northward through eastern Colorado (on the eastern periphery of an
upper level low centered invof the 4-Corners region),
increasingly diffluent flow aloft, strengthening low-level warm
advection, and marginal destabilization (MUCAPE 500-750 J/kg)
have contributed to the development of widespread elevated
convection in eastern CO this morning. Occasional lightning can be
expected as the aforementioned convection progresses eastward
into western KS and southwest NE this afternoon, along with
brief/isolated instances of pea size hail. A few more rounds of
elevated convection are likely to develop upstream and track
eastward into the Tri-State area this afternoon/evening as
additional shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper low
progresses northward through eastern Colorado and western KS.
Expect shower activity to decrease in coverage late tonight as the
upper level low progresses slowly east across the Rockies and the
focus for convective development shifts E/SE of the Tri-State
area. Brief, rate-driven p-type changes from rain to snow cannot
be ruled out in far northeast Colorado this evening/tonight if
elevated convection of sufficient intensity/duration is present.
Even if this does occur, accumulation of any kind would be very
unlikely, especially with SE/ESE flow throughout the low/mid

Sat/Sat Night: Surface based convection will develop over the
Tri-State area during the day Saturday as the upper level low
progresses east of the Rockies into western KS. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected. Weak deep-layer shear
underneath/invof the upper low and a cool /marginally unstable/
airmass will preclude a potential for severe weather, though pea
size hail cannot be ruled out. Convection will dissipate by
late Saturday afternoon as the upper low progresses southeast toward
OKC/Tulsa and mid-level warming /subsidence/ ensues over the Tri-
State area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Not much has changed since last nights write up.  The overall
pattern in the extended period shows ridging building over the
region Monday; producing predominantly northwest flow alfot and dry
conditions.  Tuesday, an upper level short wave troughs and a
surface cold front makes their way across the High Plains.  This
system looks to produce a chance of precip and winds in the 15-25
mph range. Rest of the week, a ridge rebuilds over the region and
produce mostly dry conditions for the area.

At the end of the period, the pattern has another upper level trough
trying to move into the region.  Unlike last night`s run, the ridge
looks to block it.  So this is the next system we will keep an eye


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon through tonight as an
upper level low (centered invof the 4-Corners at 16Z) tracks east
across the Rockies and widespread showers progress from CO into
KS/NE. Occasional thunder will be possible this afternoon,
primarily between 18-00Z. Showers will remain possible through the
end of the TAF period, though a general decrease in coverage is
expected during the day Saturday. Southeasterly winds sustained at
20-25 knots with gusts as high as 35-40 knots are expected this
afternoon and early this evening. Winds will back to the ESE/E and
decrease to 15-25 knots overnight, becoming ENE/NE at 10-20 knots
during the day Saturday.




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