Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1131 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Issued at 835 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Just completed an update. Change made was to address current pop
trends and to end the precipitation a little sooner than previous.
Otherwise just adjusted hourly grids to match trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

Across the region this afternoon...the area is seeing a wide range
of cloud cover from cloudy to mostly sunny. The remnants of a
morning shortwave continue to clear over the south...while a slow
moving upper low continues an ENE trek thru the CWA. Cloud cover and
wrap-around moisture from this low primarily affecting locales along
and north of Hwy 36. Cooler air wrapping around the back side of the
low is allowing for a wide range in temps from the mid to upper 40s
NW...up to the mid 60s to lower 70s over ESE locales. Region also
seeing strong gradient winds coming in from the NW as well...gusting
at times 30 mph to near 50 mph.

For this afternoon and into the evening hours...expecting upper low
to continue moving ENE allowing for remainder of the CWA to
transition over to NNW flow...with a couple hours of higher gusts.
With the movement of the low...the severe wx threat will be shunted
east of the CWA into more unstable air.

Shower activity will continue as well until low clears the
region...with QPF to be focused along and north of Interstate
70...especially near the NE/KS border. Cloud to remain into the
morning hrs Sunday...and with expected decreasing winds overnight
will be looking for patchy fog to develop.

For Sunday on thru Monday night...any remaining shower activity to
clear far NE zones by midday.  Dry conditions will ensue into Monday
with a sl chance for rw/trw over western zones Monday night with a
lee side trough edging into the Plains region. With upper ridge
building over the region Monday...instability limited.

Temps on Sunday below normal as cooler airmass remains over the
region. Looking for highs in the 60s. On Monday with southerly flow
over the region and surface ridge aloft...WAA on tap and highs will
climb into the lower 80s. Overnight lows will transition from the
mid to upper 40s Sunday mainly the mid and upper 50s
Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

At the start of the period, models are showing an upper low located
over the southwestern U.S. and at the same time a ridge over the
High Plains. This upper level low will gradually move north-
northeastward across the Rockies and over the ridge axis while the
ridge starts to make its way towards the east later in the period.
This pattern will produce mostly southwest flow aloft and allow for
disturbances to move out onto the Plains and generate a chance for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening for most of the

Later in the week, models are shoeing a shortwave trough traverses
into the northern/central Plains. This will lead to additional
precipitation chances and the potential for severe weather.

Temperatures will be in the above normal range during this period
with the highs reaching the middle 80 to lower 90s and the overnight
lows dropping down to into the lower 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat May 19 2018

For Kgld, ifr conditions and north winds near 13 knots are
expected through 14z. From 14z to 20z, mvfr conditions and north
winds near 10 knots will occur. At 20z conditions will become vfr
with east northeast winds near 7 knots. These will shift to the
southeast at the same speed around 00z and continue through the
end of the period.

For Kmck, mvfr conditions and north northwest winds near 12 knots
will continue until 18z. From 18z to 00z mvfr conditions continue
with the winds being northeast near 8 knots. At 00z the conditions
become vfr as the winds shift to the east southeast at 8 knots.




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