Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150458
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1058 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Update sent to adjust temps and cloud cover based on current
conditions. Latest satellite showing the back edge of clouds
associated with the exiting system that brought the region a
blizzard...is very slow to exit the eastern most portions of the
CWA. Have adjusted the timing to do so over the next several
hours. Otherwise mostly clear to clear for the remainder of the
area with just scattered clouds expected to traverse the region
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tonight-Sunday night...winds will quickly decrease this evening as
the storm system that brought snow and blizzard conditions to the
area continues to slowly move away. Low temperatures should range
from the mid teens north to around 20 far south and west. Record low
temperatures are expected at many locations...see climate section
below. On Sunday northwest winds in the 15 to 20 mph range expected
with some mid and/or high clouds across the west. Snow cover
generally along and north of the interstate will make for a
challenging high temperature forecast. Bias corrected grids seem to
have some handle on this and blending the better performing models
suggests highs ranging from the low to mid 40s along the KS/NE
border to around 60/low 60s across the far southwest and south. For
Sunday night expect lows ranging from the upper teens east to the
mid/upper 20s west. Record lows are possible for McCook and Hill
City...see climate section below.

Monday...southeast winds slowly increase into the 15 to 20 mph range
with some higher gusts underneath an upper ridge axis separating
low pressure systems centered over the Great Lakes and northwest
United States. 850mb temperatures warm about 15F to 19F across the
area supporting highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s
east/northeast to the low and mid 70s across the west and
southwest parts of the forecast area. Low temperatures in the mid
30s to around 40.

Tuesday...focus shifts to west coast trough which is currently
forecast during the afternoon. Ahead of it will be increasing west
and southwest winds through mid afternoon before shifting to the
northwest as the troughs associated cold front moves in shifting
winds abruptly to the northwest. Lots can change between now and
Tuesday so am hesitant to make many changes. Should see highs
ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 in the west to the mid/upper
70s across the east and south. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible, see Fire Weather section below.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Wednesday, a cold front pushes over the Tri-State area. Expecting
cooler temperatures and stronger winds along with this front.
Highs will reach the low to mid 60s, and winds will range in the
25-35 mph range with higher gusts. Lows will sit in the upper
20s. There is potential for fire weather criteria being met on
Wednesday, it just depends on how much we dry out before then.

Thursday we bounce back up briefly in the mid to upper 60s ahead
of another system moving in on Friday. At this time, models are
in agreement of something impacting the Tri-State area, and all
three are weighing pops pretty high for a day 7 event. Confident
that we will experience some sort of precipitation. More than
likely, we will see a wintry mix, but at this time, the impacts,
timing, and severity are still a little far out in the extended
for concern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

For KGLD...VFR thru the forecast period. Winds...N around 10kts
thru 23z Sunday then NE around 10kts. By 02z Monday...SE around
10kts.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR thru the forecast period w/ tempo MVFR
BKN015 from 08z-12z Sunday. Winds...NW around 10kts thru 22z
Sunday...then NE around 10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Tuesday generally
along and west of a line from near Yuma Colorado to Colby and Gove
Kansas.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday generally
along and west of a line from Flagler Colorado to Leoti Kansas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Record low temperatures are possible at the following locations
Sunday morning April 15:

Goodland..........20 degrees set in 1951
Hill City.........19 degrees set in 2014
McCook............19 degrees set in 1983
Burlington........19 degrees set in 1905
Tribune...........18 degrees set in 1983
Yuma..............19 degrees set in 1961

Record low temperatures are possible at the following locations
Monday morning April 16:

Hill City.........19 degrees set in 1951
McCook............18 degrees set in 1951

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99



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