Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
213 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 332 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Update to forecast for addition of thunderstorm chances Sunday
evening. This follows issuance from SPC D3 outlook show Marginal
Risk for eastern portions of the CWA...with some general thunder
probabilities for the remainder of the CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are cloudy as a
surface low moves slowly across the area. Temps are ranging widely
with 30s to near 40F west with northerly flow over the the
50s east where southerly flow persists on the east side of the low.

Precipitation is starting to fill in over the CWA as the low complex
continues trek east-northeastward. Looking for temps to remain in
check to keep rain as main p-type with some light snow showers west
over NE CO....with less than a half inch accum. Looking for precip
to taper from west to east thru the day.

Other wx concern for the CWA today will be the strong gradient winds
that will mix at times to bring sustained numbers near 25 to 50 mph
with gusts nearing 70 mph. Have continued High Wind Warning because
of this. Those areas seeing these high winds along with little to no
precip...could see blowing dust crop up.

From tonight on thru Saturday night...amplified H5 ridge
building/moving over the Plains region will provide dry conditions
before the next round of precip affects the region.

Near critical fire wx conditions will persist over NE CO Saturday
afternoon w/ RH readings in the mid to upper teens.

For Sunday and Sunday night...expected dry conditions during the day
to give way to a quick moving surface low/shortwave that models
shift across the Southern Plains along the KS/OK border. With the
CWA on the north side of this system as it moves east...and ample
QPF feeding into the area...expecting rain to change to snow going
into the evening hours Sunday as cold air wraps into the area. There
looks to be some weak instability on the warm side of the system
with the possibility of convection...especially for eastern zones.
SPC currently has this area in a Marginal Risk for severe. Will hold
off on mention of thunder to allow next shift fresh look to see if
instability is consistent.

For temps...increasing trend for daytime highs with ridge moving
over the area. this will start off as 50s on Friday to 60s by
Sunday. Overnight lows will trend up as well with 20s tonight and
30s this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Flow turns southwesterly aloft on Sunday as an upper trough moves
into the Desert Southwest. The low associated with this system
continues across the Rockies during the day and emerges onto the
central Plains Sunday night into early Monday. There is a potential
that this system could be significant for the region. However, it is
still a bit early and the storm track could change.

Rain chances enter the forecast Sunday afternoon as the low pushes
into the area. Some thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and
evening. CAPE values of 500 J/kg or so and around 30 knots of shear,
combined with steep lapse rates and strong lift, may generate a few
severe thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the tri-state region.
Will provide updates on this.

Beyond the evening hours on Sunday, the chance for thunder decreases
as cooler air works its way into the area. With decreasing
temperatures, a transition from rain to snow is expected for
locations along and west of a line from McCook to Leoti overnight.
The current forecast calls for snow accumulations from a trace up to
a few inches, with the higher amounts in northwestern Yuma county.
Will see how this changes over the coming days. Snow switches back
to rain on Monday with daily warming, and precipitation pushes east
out of the region through Monday evening.

Another consideration for Sunday night into Monday will be strong
northwest winds on the backside of the low. If these coincide with
snowfall, we could see some blowing snow issues.

Dry weather returns to the area by Tuesday as northwest flow
develops aloft. Upper ridging builds into the High Plains from the
west, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday. A warming
trend is also expected during this time. The next system looks to
generate precipitation chances Friday into the weekend.

High temperatures reach the 60s on Sunday before dropping into the
40s for Monday. This is followed by a warming trend through the end
of the long term, from the 50s on Tuesday to near 70 degrees on
Friday. Lows will range from the 20s to 30s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

KGLD, mvfr cigs possible through 20z then vfr conditions for the
rest of the period. Wraparound cloudiness may produce some mvfr
cigs for a few hours after taf issuance with northwest winds
gusting near 50kts. For tonight winds slowly back to the west
under perhaps a few high clouds. On Saturday winds slowly back to
the southeast and approach 10kts toward the end of the period.

KMCK, ifr cigs with reduced visibilities in light to possibly
moderate rain expected from taf issuance through about 23z with
winds gusting 35 to possibly 40kts from the northwest. After 00z
vfr conditions return with winds slowly backing to the west at
speeds under 5kts.


KS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

CO...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.

NE...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.



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