Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Tonight...isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will dot the
area within an area of 700-500mb moisture moving into the area
from the southwest. Any activity should lift north/northeast out
of the area or dissipate by 06z. Gusty winds and hail to one inch
in diameter would be the main threats. Low temperatures in the low
to upper 50s in far eastern Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s
east of the CO/KS border.

Thursday-Thursday night...looks to be a quiet morning with a cold
front bisecting the area. Winds east of the front will be from
the south at 5 to 15 mph while west of the front winds will be
from the north to northeast at 10 mph or less. By mid to late
afternoon moisture increases along the front as an upper trough
moves into the western 1/3 of the area. A few showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the front. Precipitation
chances continue generally east of the CO/KS border during the
evening before exiting the area by sunrise Friday morning. Strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible. Afternoon temperatures
should reach the low to upper 80s in far eastern Colorado with
upper 80s to low 90s east of the CO/KS border. Low temperatures in
the low to mid 50s west, mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging builds over the area ahead
of a low pressure system off the central California coast. 850mb
temperatures and bias corrected grids support highs in the mid 80s
to around 90 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 90s east of the
CO/KS border. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. A dry
forecast is currently expected.

Saturday...the upper ridge axis is firmly over the area as the upper
low slowly moves east into Nevada. Dry weather is expected. 850mb
temperatures warm another 1F to 7F across the area and when combined
with better performing bias grids produce highs in the low to mid
90s across the area. 850mb temperatures alone would support readings
a few degrees higher with the century mark possible around Tribune,
however an unfavorable and slowly increasing southeast wind should
prevent full mixing to 850mb potential.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Upper low will gradually move from the Great Basin at the start of
the long term period to the northern plains by the end of the
period, weakening as it does. Hard to rule out precipitation
chances just about any day during this period, but best chances
will probably occur when the upper low is closest, which would be
Monday and Tuesday. Given the increased flow aloft, deep layer
shear appears to be favorable for a severe threat both of those
days as well, though mesoscale details/instability make
pinpointing a favorable area difficult at this time range. Severe
threat should diminish by late in the period as upper low lifts
out and deep layer shear decreases. Temperatures will be above
normal through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected at GLD and MCK through the 06Z TAF
period. Scattered to broken high clouds are expected overnight
along with LLWS with southerly winds around 40kts around 1kft AGL persisting
through about 10Z. Winds will become light out of the south
through the day with a weak trough axis positioned across the
central high plains region. After 21Z, expect some convective
development in the vicinity of the surface trough with scattered
thunderstorms possible around the MCK TAF site through Thursday




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