Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
545 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Today, CAA will remain over the area, and only expecting highs to
reach the upper 50s across the Tri-State area. Lows overnight
will be in the mid 30s.

Tonight, winds will shift turning towards the northwest and
increasing through tomorrow as a shortwave passes through the
area. Winds are expected to be around 30-35 mph with gusts around
40 mph. Depending on daytime mixing, may see these winds come up
5-10 mph higher. Guidance is showing stronger winds above the
inversion, but felt confident enough to go with a blend of

Highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s due to CAA again on

Not expecting any precipitation or major weather threats for the
near term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Fri/Fri night: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as an
upper level ridge builds atop the Rockies and High Plains.

Sat-Tue: The aforementioned upper ridge is progged to weaken and
shift east of the Mississippi late this weekend as a broad upper
level trough becomes established over the western CONUS. Expect
warm temperatures to prevail Sat-Tue as southerly return flow
strengthens in response to upstream height falls and increasingly
diffluent flow aloft over the Rockies. Although an H85 ridge along
the TX/LA coast will block low-level moisture return from the
GOMEX on Saturday, long range model guidance indicates that the
H85 ridge will progress eastward to the Southeast coast by the end
of the weekend... and that increasingly rich low-level moisture
will advect poleward beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer
Sun-Tue. Although convective development/evolution will highly
depend upon the evolution of the western CONUS trough and the
precise timing/magnitude of shortwave energy therein (among other
factors) - the stage appears to be set for a severe weather
outbreak over portions of the Central and Southern Plains early
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 540 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Currently, MVFR conditions are impacting the Goodland terminal.
Not expecting this to last much longer at the terminal, so left
the flight category as VFR. Both terminals are expected to prevail
VFR conditions through the 12Z time frame tomorrow. Reason for so
many lines in the TAF is due to the continuous wind shifts at
both sites. Winds will start northerly and shift clockwise, over
270 degrees, throughout the day ending northwest by 12Z tomorrow.




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