Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Isolated thunderstorms will continue through the evening and
possibly overnight as they develop in northeast Colorado near the
lee trough and migrate eastward. There is a weak shortwave trough
topping the upper ridge which may aiding in lift. Instability and
deep layer shear are weak, but with a hot/dry boundary layer
supporting high DCAPE values cannot rule out a locally damaging
wind gust or heat burst tonight, even near decaying storms.
Nocturnal low level jet will develop this evening and as long as
mixing continues it will be a breezy/windy night, which will keep
low temperatures in the 60s/70s.

Friday will be another hot and breezy day as the upper ridge
remains in control even as it begins to shift further east. A cold
front will try to sneak into northeast Colorado Friday afternoon,
with the NAM still brining it even further south to a McCook to
Flagler line by late in the afternoon. Appears convection will be
capped through 00z with initiation occurring slightly after that
time near and north of the front Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Cooler temperatures are anticipated in the long term, along with an
increase in precipitation chances. A blocking area of high pressure
stays in place over the southeastern CONUS and a large upper low
remains over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies from Sunday
through at least the middle of next week. This keeps the region
under southwest flow. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front
previously stalled in Nebraska travels across the forecast area on
Sunday before lingering to the south.

Active weather is expected if this pattern occurs, with chances for
showers and thunderstorms every period of the forecast. The slow
approaching cold front appears to serve as a focus for thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon and evening. With sufficient shear and
instability in place, will need to monitor the potential for severe
weather during this time along and north of the Nebraska border.
Main concerns are large hail and damaging winds at this time.

Several waves rotate around the northwestern upper low and generate
precipitation across the region next week. Moisture is anticipated
to filter into the High Plains as well, with PWATs in the 1 to 1.5
inch range, indicating that decent rainfall is possible.

Highs look to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Sunday, but will need
to keep an eye on frontal timing to determine if adjustments should
be made. Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in
the low 70s to low 80s, followed by highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s
on Tuesday and Wednesday. May see a slight rebound into the 80s on
Thursday. Low temperatures remain in the mid 50s to low 60s
throughout the period with the exception of Sunday night when a
few locations stay in the mid/upper 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the 06Z TAF
period. Winds will become light out of the south with some early
morning LLWS at MCK. Skies will remain mostly clear with
afternoon winds becoming gusty out of the southeast.




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