Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KGLD 171958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
158 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 259 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
with just some high clouds filtering thru extreme southern portions
of the CWA. Temperatures are ranging from the mid 20s to around 30F
with a light WSW flow.

Going into today and tonight...H5 ridge will shift east thru the
Plains region with surface ridge east of the region w/ lee-side
trough setting up over the Front Range. The result will be dry
conditions over the 24 hour period. The developing trough to the
west will allow for increased gradient over the area by the
afternoon...especially for western portions of the area which will
farthest away from the effects of the ridge to the east. Gradient
does slacken some in spots during the overnight period...but will
allow for decent WAA to affect temps. Looking for highs today in
the upper 50s thru the mid 60s...warmest west. Overnight lows will
only drop into the lower to mid 30s.

There have been concerns again for Fire Wx conditions this afternoon
for the past several forecasts. Near critical conditions are
possible for NE Colorado with winds reaching near criteria...but RH
readings will only be in the upper teens to the lower 20s.

The main wx concerns for the CWA will occur during the latter potion
of the weekend into Monday. This will occur in form of a low
pressure system passing south of the region along the KS/OK border
late Sunday into Monday. Precip associated with the passage of the
system will start off as much needed rainfall...with the potential
for severe thunderstorms for SE zones w/ general thunder conditions
for the remainder of the area. This would occur in the 00z-06z
Monday timeframe. Conditions do change overnight as colder air wraps
into the area from the N and W. This will allow for a changeover to
light snow from W to E tapering off during the day Monday.

Looking for some light accum going into Monday especially along and
west of Highway 25. Looking for the potential for up to a couple
inches of snow in NE CO tapering down to about an inch nearing
Highway 25. Those areas west could also see blowing snow concerns
develop if winds hold up overnight.

For temps Sunday onward...highs in the 60s Sunday tapering down to
the 40s on Monday with the influx of colder air on northerly flow.
Overnight lows Sunday night in the 30s with 20s Monday night

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Upper ridge over the Great Basin Tuesday will move east and
amplify as it approaches the Plains on Thursday. A fast moving,
weak shortwave trough will come through on Friday as the ridge
moves east. Models have gone dry with this system, apparently due
to a lack of moisture. So, the extended period is currently dry.
Temperatures will start near normal on Tuesday and warm to much
above normal by Thursday and Friday, then cool off a bit for
Saturday behind a cold front associated with the shortwave. Only
hazardous weather potential will occur on Friday, with critical
fire weather conditions possible due to low humidity and gusty
westerly winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. However, will
need to watch the 11z-16z timeframe as enough low level moisture
may be enough to create mvfr/ifr cigs. Otherwise, a southeast wind
at taf issuance will increase and gust 25-30kts from 20z-23z.
After 00z winds remain from the southeast near 15kts through 14z
then increase with gusts over 20kts by 15z further increasing
toward the end of the taf period.

KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. From taf issuance through
about 20z stratus just east of the terminal should remain
scattered but could create ifr cigs with light and variable winds.
Otherwise a light southeast wind is expected through 16z before
increasing with gusts 20-25kts from the southeast at the end of
the taf period.




AVIATION...99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.